After winning their last two games in a row, we kick off Monday’s slate backing the Edmonton Oilers to sustain their hot stretch of play as they have a favorable matchup against the Buffalo Sabres. Later in the night, we shift our focus towards the Colorado Avalanche as their defense has the opportunity to shut down the anemic Chicago Blackhawks front line.
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After scratching and clawing their way back up the Pacific division standings, the Edmonton Oilers are now just four points behind the Vegas Golden Knights for first. While a five game losing skid halted their progress earlier in the month, the Oilers have managed to break out of their slump and win their last two games in a row. Heading into Monday, the Oilers have a great opportunity to sustain their hot stretch of play as they face off against the Buffalo Sabres who have struggled on both sides of the ice.
Especially on defense as the Sabres back line currently ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage makes it nearly impossible for their goaltending to play at a competitive level as they are tasked with having to wall off a high amount of Shots on Goal on a nightly basis. Their starting goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for example is currently averaging 3.14 Goals Against per game and a .890 Save Percentage while struggling to break .500 in Goalie Wins.
To make matters worse for Buffalo, their offense will struggle to keep it close as they face off against an Oilers defense who ranks third overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.84 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially if Jason Zucker is unable to play due to injury as the Sabres forward is one of four players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. With sizable advantages on both sides of the ice, back the Oilers to cover the puck line.
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When playing alongside Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman gets the benefit of exploiting the wider shooting lanes his teammate creates when opposing back lines shade their coverage towards the future hall of famer. Hyman has capitalized on his high quality scoring opportunities this season as the Oilers forward is averaging 0.51 Expected Goals per game. Against the Sabres lackluster coverage, expect Hyman to continue to put himself in a favorable position to score when McDavid crashes through their back line.
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The Chicago Blackhawks front line have been horrific this year as their offense currently ranks dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.47 Expected Goals per game. Connor Bedard has struggled to consistently pressure the net in his sophomore season as the reigning Calder Memorial Trophy winner is averaging 0.24 Expected Goals per game. As a whole, only two players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game which leaves Chicago vulnerable to prolonged scoring lulls.
Chicago’s struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against a Colorado defense who ranks second in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. The addition of Mackenzie Blackwood has elevated their defense as the Avs starting goalie is averaging just 2.54 Goals Against per game and a .914 Save Percentage. With his back line in a position to consistently lessen the quality of Chicago’s Shots on Goal, expect Blackwood to sustain his high level of play and hold the Blackhawks under their team total.
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On the other side of the ice, the Avs star center Nathan MacKinnon is in a great position to generate a high amount of pressure in front of Chicago’s net as the Blackhawks back line has struggled to stay in front of the puck this season. As of writing, the Blackhawks defense ranks 28th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With minimal resistance in front of him, MacKinnon will have the opportunity to turn his high volume of shot attempts into Shots on Goal to help clear the over on this prop.
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