Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back the Stars to Cover the Puck Line

After winning their last three games in a row, the Dallas Stars are in a favorable position to sustain their hot stretch of play as they face off against the Calgary Flames who severely underwhelm on both sides of the ice. In the night slate, we turn our attention towards the Colorado Avalanche as the Avs defense will have a great opportunity to keep the San Jose Sharks off the scoreboard by consistently smothering their shot attempts.

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Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars - Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

Calgary Flames Team Total Under 2.5 (-136) at BetRivers Sportsbook

Just when it looked like the Winnipeg Jets were going to run away with the Central division title, the Dallas Stars were able to throw their hat back in the ring after sparking a hot stretch of play to help close the gap between the two. With just 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Dallas Stars are only six points behind Winnipeg for first. The Stars and Jets also face off against each other two more times this season, potentially resulting in a massive swing should they stay close in the division standings.

Before that takes place, the Stars must take care of business against Calgary should they want to remain in contention for the division title. Fortunately for Dallas, their defense will have the opportunity to stall out their front line as the Flames offense currently ranks 21st overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Even with eight players averaging over 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Flames front line have struggled to gel together as their offense only averages 2.97 Expected Goals per game as a unit.

Their struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against a Stars defense who ranks above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Jake Oettinger in net as the Stars goalie averages just 2.44 Goals Against per game and a .911 Save Percentage. Should the Stars back line take advantage of their lack of cohesion and consistently smother their shot attempts, then expect Oettinger to keep the Flames under their team total by walling off their low quality Shots on Goal.

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Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 (+112) at BetRivers Sportsbook

With Calgary’s offense projected to struggle, the Stars will have a great opportunity to cover the puck line by setting a scoring pace too fast for the Flames to keep up with. The Stars have excelled at generating Expected Goals this season as their offense ranks top-5 in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.43 per game. Even with Dustin Wolf playing at a competitive level, the rookie goalie will struggle to wall off the Stars relentless attack while his back line gives him minimal support in coverage.

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San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

San Jose Sharks Team Total Under 2.5 (-175) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Ever since Colorado made the trade for San Jose’s Mackenzie Blackwood, the Avalanche defense have shot up the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations as the newly acquired goalie has given them a high level of individual production on a nightly basis. As of writing, Blackwood is ranked top-10 in average Goals Against per game while generating a .916 Save Percentage.

Against San Jose, the Avs defense are in a position to thrive as the Sharks front line have struggled with creating high quality Shots on Goal as their low mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations indicates. Even with Macklin Celebrini giving their offense a boost in production since being promoted to the active roster, his play has not been nearly enough to turn them into a competitive unit. With minimal pressure in front of his net, expect Blackwood to put together another dominant performance.

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Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only have the Sharks struggled on offense, but their defense also ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage creates wider shooting lanes for Nathan MacKinnon to exploit when he uses his blistering fast speed to weave through the back line. MacKinnon already excels at creating high quality scoring opportunities as the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner averages 0.36 Expected Goals and 4.02 Shots on Goal per game.

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