Heading into Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a great opportunity to pad their lead at the top of the Atlantic division standings as they face off against the San Jose Sharks who severely underwhelm on both sides of the ice. Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Los Angeles Kings as their back line is in a favorable position to keep the Chicago Blackhawks off the scoreboard with Darcy Kuemper stone walling their anemic offense.
Even after promoting Macklin Celebrini to the active roster, the betting favorite for the Calder Memorial Trophy has failed to elevate San Jose’s offense as a whole as the Sharks rank 29th in Expected Goals For in All Situations. The Sharks anemic play on offense can be pointed towards their lack of talent as only Celebrini and Tyler Toffoli average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. With minimal support from their linemates, the duo are forced to create high quality Shots on Goal in clogged shooting lanes.
With Anthony Stolarz expected to get the start for Toronto, the Sharks struggles are poised to persist as the Maple Leafs starting goalie currently leads the league in Save Percentage while averaging just 2.22 Goals Against per game. Even with his back line ranked below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the star goalie should face minimal pressure in front of his net with the Sharks lack of versatility struggling to stretch out the Maple Leafs coverage.
On the other side of the ice, the Sharks back line will struggle to give their offense the production they need to make it a low scoring affair as their defense enters the contest ranked 31st in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Alexandar Georgiev anchoring their net as the former Colorado Avalanche goalie is averaging an astonishing 3.65 Goals Against per game. With Toronto possessing massive advantages on both sides of the ice, bet the Maple Leafs to cover the puck line in regulation.
After scoring in his last game out, John Tavares will have the opportunity to build on his momentum by relentlessly pressuring the Sharks net. Especially with San Jose’s back line underwhelming in coverage as their near dead last mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates. Tavares has excelled at creating high quality scoring opportunities at a consistent rate as he averages 0.42 Expected Goals per game. Expect Tavares to continue to thrive at attacking the net, resulting in his 24th goal of the season.
Speaking of anemic front lines, the Chicago Blackhawks offense continues to underwhelm as they rank dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.50 Expected Goals per game. Like the Sharks, the Blackhawks are also void of talent as only two players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their lack of versatility makes it tough for them to open up wider shooting lanes as opposing back lines can anchor in coverage and consistently lessen the quality of their Shots on Goal.
Generating shots towards the net will continue to be a hassle for the Blackhawks as they face off against a Kings defense who leads the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their suffocating coverage has played a major role in Darcy Kuemper’s resurgence as the Kings goalie ranks top-5 in average Goals Against per game after averaging 3.31 last year. With his back line lessening the quality of their Shots on Goal, expect Kuemper to consistently wall them off and hold Chicago under their team total.
Adrian Kempe has been one of the Kings most consistent sources of offensive production this season as the forward currently leads the team in Expected Goals while averaging 2.97 Shots on Goal per game. Against a Blackhawks defense who ranks 27th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Kempe will have favorable opportunities to blitz through their back line and pressure the net. Kevin Fiala is also worth a wager to score as Kempe’s teammate has started to generate Expected Goals at a more consistent rate.
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