With Chicago’s offense ranking dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations, the Vegas Golden Knights back line have a great opportunity to round back into form after going through a prolonged cold stretch of play. Before that takes place, we shift our focus towards the matchup between Buffalo and Carolina as the Hurricanes offense are in a favorable position to light up the scoreboard and clear the over on their team total.
Due to Edmonton’s four game losing skid, the Vegas Golden Knights find themselves back on top of the Pacific division standings and in full control of their own destiny in regard to winning the division title. Should Vegas want to sustain their current rate of points and hold off the Oilers, then their back line must round back into form to help lessen the amount of variance in their contests. As of writing, the Golden Knights defense ranks 13th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and 23rd in 5-on-5 Play.
Against Chicago, the Golden Knights back line have a great opportunity to build some momentum as they face off against a Blackhawks offense who ranks 32nd in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Chicago’s struggles on offense can be pointed towards their lack of playmakers as only Tyler Bertuzzi averages more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their lack of versatility will allow the Golden Knights back line to remain anchored in coverage, making it easier to consistently lessen the quality of their Shots on Goal.
On the other side of the ice, the Golden Knights high powered offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of consistently creating high quality scoring opportunities as the Blackhawks back line have struggled to defend their net this season. That spells potential disaster for their goaltending with Petr Mrazek struggling to play at a competitive level as the Blackhawks starting goalie enters the contest averaging a lowly 3.33 Goals Against per game and a .894 Save Percentage.
With the Blackhawks defense ranked 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Tomas Hertl will have a great opportunity to continue his aggressive attack at the net as the Golden Knights forward averages 0.49 Expected Goals per game. Especially with his linemates also excelling at creating high quality Shots on Goal as their play will help stretch out the Blackhawks coverage. When stretched out, Hertl will find himself with wider shooting lanes for him to exploit which increases his chances of scoring.
Since the start of the regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes front line have been one of the best units in the league as their offense currently ranks first overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.59 Expected Goals per game. Even after trading away Martin Necas, their offense has had no issue with sustaining their high level of play as Mikko Rantanen has been a productive replacement. Heading into Thursday, Rantanen averages 0.46 Expected Goals and 2.81 Shots on Goal per game.
Rantanen, along with the rest of his linemates, will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Buffalo Sabres defense who ranks 27th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen anchoring their net as the Sabres goalie is ranked near the bottom of the board in average Goals Against per game. With minimal support from his back line, expect Luukkonen to continue to struggle while under relentless pressure from the Hurricanes offense.
To help make a run at the Stanley Cup, the Hurricanes back line have started to give them the production they need to be a well rounded unit as their defense ranks eighth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their ability to consistently smother opposing shot attempts hurts JJ Peterka’s chances of generating Shots on Goal as the Sabres forward will have to weave the puck through clogged lanes. Should the total on Peterka’s Shots on Goal prop drop down to 1.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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