With the Columbus Blue Jackets back line struggling to stay in front of the puck as their low mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, the Dallas Stars offense will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard by consistently pressuring their net. At the same time as their puck drop, the Carolina Hurricanes are in a favorable position to cover the puck line against Montreal as the Canadiens severely underwhelm on both sides of the ice.
With less than 30 games remaining in the season, the Dallas Stars must sustain their high level of play on offense should they want to close the gap between them and Winnipeg for first in the Central division standings. Not only would this secure Dallas the division title, but it would also help them grab one of the top seeds in the playoffs in the Western Conference. Fortunately for the Stars, their retooled front line have seemingly hit their stride as their offense ranks fifth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
Their success can be pointed towards their versatility as ten players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. The emerging Wyatt Johnston has played a major role in their success as the young center is averaging 0.39 Expected Goals and 2.70 Shots on Goal per game. By possessing playmakers who excel at creating high quality scoring opportunities on every line of their offense, the Stars can relentlessly pressure the net for the full duration of their contests while avoiding prolonged scoring lulls.
That spells potential disaster for the Blue Jackets as their back line has struggled in coverage this season. As of writing, the Blue Jackets defense ranks 22nd overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.17 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially with Elvis Merzlikins anchoring their net as the Blue Jackets goalie is averaging 2.94 Goals Against per game and a .897 Save Percentage. Should his back up Daniil Tarasov get the start instead, then increase the size of your wager.
With the Stars back line playing equally as well as their offense, the Blue Jackets Zach Werenski will need to be more aggressive in his efforts of generating shot attempts from the blue line to help scramble their coverage. Werenski has excelled at weaving the puck through clogged lanes this season as the defenseman is currently averaging 3.66 Shots on Goal per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet Werenski’s Shots on Goal prop by sprinkling smaller wagers on his alternate overs.
Since the start of the regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes front line have been one of the most lethal units in the league as they currently rank first overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.61 Expected Goals per game. Against Montreal, the Hurricanes top heavy offense will have the opportunity to sustain their high level of play as they face off against the Canadiens Sam Montembeault who ranks near dead last in average Goals Against per game.
On the other side of the ice, the Hurricanes back line will also find themselves in a favorable position to succeed as they get the benefit of walling off a Canadiens offense who struggles with creating high quality Shots on Goal. With only two players averaging more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Canadiens lack the versatility needed to stretch out the Hurricanes coverage. With clear advantages on both sides of the ice, expect Carolina to secure the win in regulation and cover the puck line.
As for who will do the scoring for Carolina, Andrei Svechnikov has been one of their main sources of offensive production this season as the Hurricanes forward is averaging 0.38 Expected Goals per game. With Montreal’s back line struggling to defend their net as their near dead last mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations indicates, Svechnikov will have a great opportunity to exploit their gaps in coverage and continue to generate high quality Shots on Goal.
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