With Chicago’s front line suffering from a lack of playmakers, expect their struggles on offense to continue to persist as they face off against an Edmonton defense who ranks first overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Montreal Canadiens as their anemic offense will underwhelm in their efforts of creating high quality Shots on Goal against a Los Angeles Kings defense who thrives in coverage.
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It’s been an abysmal year for the Chicago Blackhawks front line this season as their offense ranks 32nd overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.48 Expected Goals per game. Their lack of playmakers hurts their chances of spacing out opposing back lines to help create high quality scoring opportunities as only one player currently averages more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
Against Edmonton, Chicago’s front line will continue to severely underwhelm as they face off against an Oilers defense who is tied for first in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their suffocating coverage will be vital in this contest as their ability to lessen the quality of Chicago’s shot attempts puts Stuart Skinner in a better position to succeed. Skinner has struggled with sustaining a high level of play this season as he continues to drastically move up and down the board in average Goals Against per game.
Should Calvin Pickard get the starting nod instead, then increase the size of your wager as the back up goalie has performed better than Skinner this season. As of writing, Pickard possesses a lower average in Goals Against per game while nearly rivaling Skinner in Goalie Wins in fewer appearances. Also consider laying a wager on Edmonton to win in regulation as their front line should face minimal resistance in their efforts of generating a high volume of Shots on Goal.
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Speaking of Edmonton’s front line, they continue to excel at creating pressure in front of the opposing net as their offense ranks top-5 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Zach Hyman has played a key role in their production this season as the Oilers forward leads the team in Expected Goals per game. When Connor McDavid blitzes through Chicago’s back line, expect Hyman to exploit the gaps in coverage the three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner creates to set himself up in a favorable position to score.
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With the Calgary Flames nipping at their heels, the Los Angeles Kings are in desperate need of sparking a hot stretch of play to help hold on to their lead for the third spot in the Pacific division standings. Finishing in the top three is important as it secures you an auto berth for the playoffs while the bottom five have to compete with the rest of the Western Conference for the two wildcard spots.
Fortunately for the Kings, their defense will have the opportunity to string together a dominant performance as they face off against a Montreal offense who ranks 27th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Not only will the anemic Canadiens offense struggle to create separation from the Kings coverage, but weaving the puck past Darcy Kuemper will also prove troublesome as the starting goalie averages just 2.16 Goals Against per game.
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On the other side of the ice, the Canadiens back line have also underwhelmed as their defense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. That bodes well for Adrian Kempe as the Kings forward has excelled at creating high quality scoring opportunities as his high mark in Expected Goals indicates. With the Canadiens defense struggling in coverage, expect Kempe to generate a higher volume of shots towards their net which increases his chances of scoring.
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