After being heavy spenders in the offseason to help make a run to the Stanley Cup, the Nashville Predators have severely underwhelmed as they are currently 14 points back from the Calgary Flames in the Western Conference wildcard standings for the last spot in the playoffs. To help secure some points, the Predators revamped offense has the opportunity to light up the scoreboard against an Ottawa defense who has question marks looming over their goaltending.
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While the Predators additions have not panned out in regard to competing for a championship, their retooled front line has managed to play at a high level as their offense ranks 10th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault have proven to be impactful additions for their offense as both players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
Against Ottawa, the Predators offense will have the opportunity to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities as they face off against a Senators back line who has struggled to defend their net. Ottawa’s coverage has been sporadic throughout the year as the Senators enter the contest ranked 16th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.02 Expected Goals Against per game.
Question marks also loom over their goaltending with Linus Ullmark recently removed from their long term injury reserve. When healthy, Ullmark has been one of the best goalies in the league as is averaging just 2.38 Goals Against per game. Even though Ullmark is back on the roster, his status for the game is still in question. Rust also plays a factor as the star goalie has not played since December 22nd.
Should Ullmark sit out, then Anton Forsberg is expected to receive the start. Forsberg is a sizable downgrade in production when compared to Ullmark as the backup goalie ranks in the bottom half of the board in average Goals Against per game while generating a Save Percentage of .893. If Forsberg gets the start, then escalator bet the Predators team total over by placing smaller wagers on their alternate totals.
Speaking of Jonathan Marchessault, the former Vegas Golden Knight has been aggressive in his efforts of pressuring the net this season as the Preds forward is averaging 0.32 Expected Goals and 3.10 Shots on Goal per game. With his center Ryan O’Reilly also excelling at creating high quality Shots on Goal as the team leader in Expected Goals, the Senators defense will be stretched out thin which opens up wider shooting lanes for Marchessault to exploit.
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