With Connor McDavid making his return from suspension, the Edmonton Oilers offense will receive a major boost in scoring production as the future hall of famer excels at pressuring the net. That spells potential disaster for the Seattle Kraken as their defense ranks well below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
Before that takes place, the Los Angeles Kings look to cool off the surging Detroit Red Wings to help remain in contention for the Pacific division title. While the Red Wings offense have been scorching hot over the past few weeks of play, they face their toughest test yet as the Kings back line have been in a tier of their own this season. Heading into Monday, the Kings defense ranks first overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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With Edmonton’s offense intact, the Oilers front line will have the opportunity to generate high quality Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as they face off against a Seattle back line who struggles to protect their net. As of writing, the Kraken defense ranks 25th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.26 Expected Goals Against per game.
On the other side of the ice, the Oilers back line has been one of the more formidable units in the league as their defense ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their coverage has helped Stuart Skinner round back into form as the Oilers goalie continues to climb up the board in average Goals Against per game. With Seattle grading out poorly in Expected Goals For, expect Edmonton’s back line to hold the Kraken to minimal scoring opportunities and help the Oilers cover the puck line.
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With McDavid back on the ice, Zach Hyman will receive an uptick in scoring opportunities while exploiting the gaps in coverage his linemate creates when he blitzes through the Kraken’s back line. Hyman has thrived in that role as the Oilers forward currently averages 0.49 Expected Goals and 2.80 Shots on Goal per game. Should it be announced that Hyman is not slotted in McDavid’s line before puck drop, then pass on this prop as the quality of his shooting lanes will drastically decrease.
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After a hot stretch of play, the Detroit Red Wings have revived their hopes of making the playoffs as they are just four points back from the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot. While a division title is most likely out of their reach, the Red Wings have a realistic chance of sneaking into the playoffs by securing one of the two wildcard spots.
Unfortunately for Detroit, regression looms large as they face off against a Kings defense who ranks first overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Darcy Kuemper has played a major role in their success as the Vezina Trophy contender is averaging 2.09 Goals Against per game and a .922 Save Percentage. With only three Red Wings averaging more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, their offense lacks the versatility needed to stretch out the Kings coverage to help create high quality shooting lanes.
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While the Red Wings offense have managed to play at a competitive level, their back line has struggled to follow suit as their defense ranks 24th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their fast paced style of play leaves them vulnerable to getting beat on the other end while scrambled in coverage. That bodes well for the Kings Adrian Kempe as he has excelled at creating high quality Shots on Goal this season and will have the opportunity to consistently pressure the Red Wings net in transition.
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