After a slow start to the season, the Edmonton Oilers have started to hit their stride and are just one point back from the Vegas Golden Knights for first place in the Pacific division standings. On Thursday night, the Oilers will have the opportunity to take sole possession of first place should they secure the win over the Vancouver Canucks and their severely underwhelming offense.
Before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Carolina Hurricanes as they look to chip away at the Washington Capitals lead in the Metropolitan division standings with a favorable matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus has struggled to play at a competitive level on both sides of the ice this season as the Blue Jackets rank below league average in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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After winning the Pacific division title in 2023-2024, the Vancouver Canucks have failed to carry over their momentum into this season as they are currently in fifth place in the division standings and out of the playoff picture as of writing. Their lack of offensive production has played a major role in their struggles as the Canucks front line ranks 31st overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.65 Expected Goals per game.
Against Edmonton, the Canucks offense will continue to underwhelm in their efforts of generating high-quality Shots on Goal as they face off against an Oilers defense who ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Stuart Skinner struggling to play at a high level, the Oilers coverage will make it tough for the Canucks to pressure their net. Especially with Vancouver’s offense suffering from a lack of versatility as only four players average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
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While Vancouver’s offense has struggled, their defense has performed far better as the Canucks currently rank top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with their back line excelling in coverage, the Canucks will be prone to being stretched out while Connor McDavid weaves through their defense. When shifting towards the Hart Memorial Trophy contender, this will open up high-quality shooting lanes for Zach Hyman to exploit. For some added fun, sprinkle a wager on Hyman to score the first goal as well.
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Even though the Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1 on Wednesday night, negative regression looms large as they actually lost 4.02-3.75 in Expected Goals. Their lack of defensive production will be on full display against Carolina as the Hurricanes' offense ranks second overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.57 Expected Goals per game.
Should Columbus fall behind on the scoreboard, then they will find it tough to claw their way out of a deficit as their anemic offense lacks the versatility needed to break down the Hurricanes' defense. Especially with Pyotr Kochetkov playing at a high level as the Hurricanes starting goalie enters the contest averaging 2.47 Goals Against per game and a .904 Save Percentage. With the Blue Jackets offense poised to struggle, expect the Hurricanes to secure the win in regulation and cover the puck line in the process.
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As for who will do the scoring for the Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov has been one of their most consistent sources of offensive production as he averages 0.38 Expected Goals and 2.77 Shots on Goal per game. Against a Blue Jackets defense who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Svechnikov will have the opportunity to sustain his high level of play by consistently blitzing through their lackluster coverage.
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