After going 2-5-3 in their last 10 contests, the New Jersey Devils' odds to win the Metropolitan division title have steadily declined while the Washington Capitals have grown their lead at the top of the standings. Fortunately for the Devils, they have the opportunity to break out of their slump as they face off against the Boston Bruins who rank below league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Maple Leafs as the Atlantic division leaders have the opportunity to consistently generate high-quality scoring opportunities in a favorable matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets' back line have struggled to play at a competitive level this season as their defense enters the contest ranked below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
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Even after their recent underwhelming stretch of play, the New Jersey Devils front line still lead the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.69 Expected Goals per game. Their offense features plenty of playmakers who are all capable of consistently generating high-quality Shots on Goal as six Devils average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
On Wednesday night, the Devils will have the opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for Boston to keep up with by consistently pressuring their net. Boston’s back line has struggled with smothering opposing shot attempts this season as their defense ranks 18th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Factor in the Bruins offense also underwhelming in their efforts of creating high-quality Shots on Goal and the Devils will be in a great position to secure the win in regulation and cover the puck line.
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With the Bruins' back line struggling in coverage, the Devils' offense will find themselves with plenty of high-quality shooting lanes to help weave the puck toward their net. That bodes well for Stefan Noesen who has been a consistent source of offensive production for the Devils as he averages nearly 0.40 Expected Goals and 2.15 Shots on Goal per game. With his center Nico Hischier commanding defensive attention, expect Noesen to exploit the Bruins' gaps in coverage to help generate a high amount of Shots on Goal.
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After Auston Matthews made his return from injury, the Toronto Maple Leafs offense have steadily crept back up the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. His high level of play has been instrumental in their resurgence as the star center is averaging an astonishing 0.59 Expected Goals per game.
Against Columbus, the Maple Leafs will have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a Blue Jackets back line who ranks 20th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of production in net plays a major role in their struggles as their starting goalie Elvis Merzlikins averages 3.06 Goals Against per game and a .890 Save Percentage. Back Toronto to clear the over on their team total as their offense is in a position to create high-quality scoring opportunities at a consistent rate.
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Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Auston Matthews has averaged nearly one goal per game in his nine appearances. The Maple Leafs' star center has faced minimal resistance in his efforts of pressuring the net this season as he currently averages 3.88 Shots on Goal per game. With the Blue Jackets back line struggling to stay in front of the puck and protect their net, expect Matthews to continue to excel at generating high-quality scoring opportunities and potentially score the first goal of the game.
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