After a slow start to the season, the Edmonton Oilers have managed to put together a hot stretch of play and are showing signs of why they are listed as the betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup. In a Pacific divisional matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, their defensive production will be on full display as the Kings offense currently ranks well below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
Well before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Florida Panthers and Philadelphia Flyers as both offenses are poised to regress in a matchup that features two stout defenses. With the reigning Stanley Cup champions back line playing at a high level, expect the Flyers Calder Memorial Trophy contender Matvei Michkov to struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal.
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While the Edmonton Oilers offense hogs most of the spotlight due to their abundance of star power, their defense has quietly been elite as they currently rank second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.74 Expected Goals Against per game. Their improved coverage has helped Stuart Skinner play at a more competitive level as the Oilers goalie has started to wall off shots at a more consistent rate.
Heading into Monday, the Oilers defense will have the opportunity to sustain their high level of play as they face off against a Los Angeles Kings front line who ranks 20th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with only three players averaging more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. With no ability to space out Edmonton’s back line, expect the Kings offense to struggle to find the back of the net while being suffocated by the Oilers coverage.
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Even though the Kings lead the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, Zach Hyman will still have a great opportunity to clear the over on his Shots on Goal prop as Connor McDavid pulls defensive attention away from him. Hyman has wasted no time in his efforts of picking up from where he left off before suffering an injury as he averages 0.50 Expected Goals per game. Expect Hyman to continue to exploit the gaps in coverage McDavid creates, resulting in another high volume of Shots on Goal.
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After winning the Stanley Cup, the Florida Panthers defense was ravaged throughout the offseason. Brandon Montour was one of their more notable losses as the star defenseman excelled at smothering opposing shot attempts and creating high quality scoring opportunities from the blue line. Fortunately for Florida, their revamped back line has managed to quickly round back into form as their defense currently ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
Speaking of rounding back into form, the Flyers defense have continued to move up the board in Expected Goals Against in All SItuations as their back line has lessened the quality of opposing Shots on Goal at a more consistent rate. Their ability to smother opposing shot attempts has been crucial for their success as their starting goalie Samuel Ersson has struggled to play at a consistently high level. While he does average less than three Goals Against per game, he also possesses a Save Percentage of .888.
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After being held to just one goal in his last 13 appearances, Matvei Michkov was able to find the back of the net in his last outing against the Anaheim Ducks. Unfortunately for Michkov, he may not be free from his cold stretch of play as he faces off against a defense who excels in coverage. With his surrounding cast grading out poorly in Expected Goals, Michkov will be forced to weave the puck through low quality shooting lanes which hurts his chances of generating a Shot on Goal.
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