After entering the year with middling expectations per their preseason odds to make the playoffs, the Washington Capitals are firmly in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy as we near the halfway point of the season. They have the opportunity to strengthen their case for the award as they face off against the Buffalo Sabres who rank near dead last in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the New Jersey Devils as their high powered offense is in a great position to light up the scoreboard against the lowly Seattle Kraken. Generating defensive production has been a struggle for the Kraken this season as their back line enters the contest ranked well below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
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With a little less than half of the regular season in the books, the Washington Capitals have made a strong case for being one of the best teams in the league as they continue to hover near the top of the overall standings. As of writing, the Capitals are just two points back from the Vegas Golden Knights for first while ranking above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Against Buffalo, Washington will have the opportunity to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities as the Sabres back line have struggled to stay in front of the puck this season. Heading into Monday, the Sabres defense ranks 26th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.28 Expected Goals per game. Due to their lack of coverage, expect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to crumble under the Capitals pressure as Washington capitalizes on their high quality shooting lanes.
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Even in his twilight years, Alex Ovechkin has still excelled at generating high quality scoring opportunities as he enters the contest averaging 0.51 Expected Goals and 3.83 Shots on Goal per game. That bodes well for the future hall of famer in his quest of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s NHL goals scored record as he will be in a great position to routinely blitz through the Sabres lackluster coverage. Should your sportsbook offer alternative lines, then sprinkle smaller wagers on his alternate overs as well.
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Even after focusing on their defense throughout the offseason, the Seattle Kraken back line has still struggled to play at a competitive level as they currently rank 27th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.30 Expected Goals Against per game. Their lack of production has brought in a high level of variance into their contests, hurting their chances of sparking a hot stretch of play to help climb back up the Pacific division standings.
New Jersey will do them no favors in their efforts of rounding back into form as the Devils front line leads the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.79 Expected Goals per game. With five players averaging more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, the Devils versatility will stretch out the Kraken’s coverage and open up higher quality shooting lanes in the process. With Seattle’s offense also severely underwhelming, consider laying a wager on the Devils to cover the Puck Line as well.
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As for who will do the scoring for New Jersey, Jack Hughes has been one of their most consistent sources of offensive production as the emerging star center enters the contest averaging 0.42 Expected Goals per game. With Jesper Bratt commanding defensive attention as a viable scoring threat in his own right, expect Hughes to take advantage of the Kraken’s gaps in coverage and generate high quality Shots on Goal towards their net.
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