Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Back the Stars to Make a Statement Post Holiday Break

After the Dallas Stars limped into the holiday break, they attempt to round back into form and start their climb up the Central division standings with a divisional matchup against the Minnesota Wild. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for the anemic Wild offense as Minnesota enters the contest ranked well below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

Before that takes place, we continue to fade the Detroit Red Wings as their lack of defensive production will be on full display against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Even with Auston Matthews' status for this contest up in the air, the Maple Leafs front line should have no issue with maintaining their high level of play with William Nylander and John Tavares shouldering a heavier workload.

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Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars - Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

Minnesota Wild Team Total Under 2.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even with the current betting favorite for the Hart Memorial Trophy leading the charge, Kirill Kaprizov has not been able to turn the Minnesota Wild offense into a competitive unit as their front line currently ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their offense suffers from a lack of versatility as only Kaprizov and Matt Boldy average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game. 

Against Dallas, expect the Wild to continue to struggle with generating offensive production as they face off against a Stars back line who excels in coverage. As of writing, the Stars defense ranks seventh overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.85 Expected Goals Against per game. Their starting goaltender Jake Oettinger has also played at a very high level this season as the Stars goalie enters the contest averaging 2.42 Goals Against per game and a .910 Save Percentage.

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Mats Zuccarello Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-188) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Generating Shots on Goal will be a struggle for the Wild offense as the Stars back line smothers opposing shot attempts at a high rate. Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello has already underwhelmed in his efforts of pressuring opposing goalies this season as the Wild forward currently averages just 0.21 Expected Goals and 1.95 Shots on Goal per game. Against the Stars suffocating coverage, expect Zuccarello to continue to struggle with generating Shots on Goal while weaving the puck through low quality shooting lanes.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3 (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Auston Matthews status for this contest is still in question, the Toronto Maple Leafs offense should have no issue with maintaining their top-10 marks in Expected Goals For in All Situations in a favorable matchup against the Detroit Red Wings. William Nylander and John Tavares have proven they can keep the Maple Leafs offense afloat with their own individual production as both playmakers currently average over 0.40 Expected Goals per game.

Expect both players to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities against the Red Wings as Detroit’s back line has struggled with staying in front of the puck this season. Heading into Friday, the Red Wings defense ranks 26th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.30 Expected Goals Against per game. Should Alex Lyon get the start for Detroit, then escalator bet the Toronto Maple Leafs team total by sprinkling smaller wagers on their alternate overs.

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John Tavares Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even if Auston Matthews is able to make his return from injury, John Tavares should have no issue with generating a high amount of scoring opportunities as the Maple Leafs forward enters the contest averaging 0.47 Expected Goals and 3.06 Shots on Goal. Especially with the Red Wings back line struggling in coverage, conceding higher quality shooting lanes for the Maple Leafs front line to exploit. Be sure to shop around as some sportsbooks have already moved his total up to 3.5.

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