Before the NHL takes their three day break for the holiday, Monday’s slate gives us a full day's worth of games for our viewing and betting pleasure. Kicking things off in the afternoon, we fade the regressing New York Rangers defense as they are set to face off against the New Jersey Devils who currently lead the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
In the evening, we turn our attention towards the Minnesota Wild as Vezina Trophy contender Filip Gustavsson will have the opportunity to strengthen his case for the award by walling off the anemic Chicago Blackhawks offense. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for the Blackhawks this season as their front line ranks dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and 31st in 5-on-5 Play.
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After bringing back a majority of their roster that led them to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, the New York Rangers were projected to be one of the best teams in the league per their preseason odds to win the Stanley Cup. That has yet to be the case as the Rangers are currently out of the playoff picture while five points back from the Ottawa Senators for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs.
Their lack of defensive production has played a major role in their slow start to the year as the Rangers currently rank 30th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage has left Igor Shesterkin out to dry as the star goaltender continues to crash down the board in average Goals Against per game. Against New Jersey, expect Shesterkin to continue to struggle as the Devils offense excels at creating high quality scoring opportunities as their top ranked mark in Expected Goals For indicates.
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Jack Hughes has been one of the Devils most consistent sources of production this season as the star center is averaging 0.41 Expected Goals and 3.61 Shots on Goal per game. With the Rangers back line struggling to provide their net proper coverage, Hughes will have the opportunity to generate a high amount of Shots on Goal while blitzing through their defense. Expect Hughes to capitalize on his high quality shooting lanes that their lack of coverage provides, resulting in Shots on Goal towards their net.
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Once considered one of the front runners for the President’s Trophy, the Minnesota Wild’s odds to win the award have steadily declined after losing their last four contests in a row. Luckily for Minnesota, they have the opportunity to get back into the win column with a favorable matchup against Chicago as the Blackhawks offense ranks 32nd in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
Against Minnesota, expect the Blackhawks to continue to struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal as the Wild back line smothers opposing shot attempts at a consistent rate. As of writing, the Wild rank third overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.67 Expected Goals Against per game. Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson has also continued to play at a high level as the star goalie is averaging just 2.24 Shots on Goal per game while generating a .922 Save Percentage.
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With the Wild back line excelling in coverage, expect Connor Bedard to struggle with breaking through their defense and generating Shots on Goal towards their net. Especially with his surrounding cast underwhelming in their efforts of commanding defensive attention as only Tyler Bertuzzi averages more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game. Expect the Wild to shade their coverage towards the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner to help limit his output while daring someone else to beat them.
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