After a 7-2-1 stretch in their last 10 games, the Florida Panthers have tied the Toronto Maple Leafs for first place in the Atlantic division standings. Even with the same amount of points, the Maple Leafs have the edge as they possess a higher point percentage. Luckily for the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Panthers have a favorable matchup against the St. Louis Blues to help take sole possession of first.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Dallas Stars as their high powered offense has the opportunity to light up the scoreboard against a regressing New York Rangers back line. The Rangers defense has struggled with generating defensive production this season as their back line enters the contest ranked 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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After losing a few key defenseman throughout the offseason, the Florida Panthers defense were expected to regress due to their lack of continuity. While the Panthers back line did get off to a slow start, they quickly broke out of their slump and catapulted up to as high as ninth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.96 Expected Goals Against per game.
Against St. Louis, the Panthers defense will have the opportunity to continue their hot stretch of play as the Blues offense has struggled with generating high quality scoring opportunities throughout the season. As of writing, the Blues front line ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With Florida’s coverage lessening the quality of the Blues Shots on Goal at a consistent rate, expect former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky to hold St. Louis under their team total.
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The Panthers offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of pressuring the Blues net as St. Louis ranks 18th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. That bodes well for Carter Verhaeghe who has been Florida’s most consistent source of production as the Panthers forward is averaging 0.36 Expected Goals and 3.15 Shots on Goal per game. With the Blues back line struggling in coverage, expect Verhaeghe to capitalize on his high quality shooting lanes and net his 10th goal of the season.
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After bringing back a bulk of their roster that led them to the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Rangers were expected to be one of the best teams in the league this season. That has yet to be the case as the Rangers are currently five points back from the Ottawa Senators in the wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Their lack of defensive production has played a major role in their struggles as the Rangers back line ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Even with Igor Shesterkin anchoring their back line, the Rangers star goalie has crumbled under the high amount of Shots on Goal being sent towards their net as he is currently averaging 3.04 Goals Against per game. Should Shesterkin get the starting nod in Friday’s contest against Dallas, he will be tasked with having to wall off another high volume of Shots on Goal as the Stars offense enters the contest ranked fourth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
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Since the calendar flipped to December, the Dallas Stars Logan Stankoven has generated a measly two total points on two assists. A stunning low level of play, especially when Stankoven has continued to excel at creating pressure as the Stars rookie is averaging 0.27 Expected Goals and 2.69 Shots on Goal per game. With the Rangers defense struggling to defend their net as their low mark in Expected Goals Against indicates, expect Stankoven to round back into form and score his first goal since November 14th.
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