Not only are the Minnesota Wild making a strong case for the Presidents’ Trophy by possessing the highest point percentage in the league, but their odds to win the Stanley Cup are steadily growing as well. Even after the success they have had, negative regression still looms large as their offense continues to struggle with generating high quality scoring opportunities as their low mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations suggests.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Anaheim Ducks and Winnipeg Jets as both offenses are in a position to light up the scoreboard. Especially with the Jets defense continuing to regress as they have dropped down to as low as 19th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations after residing in the top-3 for a majority of the season.
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Even with Hart Memorial Trophy contender Kirill Kaprizov leading the charge, the Minnesota Wild have struggled with generating high quality scoring opportunities as their front line currently ranks 25th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their offense suffers from a lack of versatility as only Matt Boldy and Kaprizov average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
Heading into Wednesday night, their offensive woes are poised to persist as they face off against a Florida Panthers back line who excels in coverage. As of writing, Florida’s defense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Even with the Panthers starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky in the midst of a slump, the former Vezina Trophy winner will have a great opportunity to round back into form and build some momentum by walling off Minnesota’s low quality Shots on Goal.
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While Minnesota’s offense has severely struggled, their defense has thrived as their back line ranks second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with their stout coverage, the Panthers Carter Verhaeghe will still have the opportunity to maintain his high level of play as one of the focal points of their offense. Especially with his productive surrounding cast also commanding defensive attention, opening up gaps in coverage for Verhaeghe to exploit and fire off Shots on Goal towards the Wild net.
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Speaking of regression, the Winnipeg Jets defense continues to trend in the wrong direction as their bank line currently ranks 19th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.05 Expected Goals Against per game. With their back line struggling to play at a competitive level, that gives the Anaheim Ducks offense higher quality shooting lanes for them to exploit and generate more Shots on Goal towards the Jets net.
As for the Jets offense, they will have the opportunity to match Anaheim’s scoring output as the Ducks back line ranks 32nd overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Even with Lukas Dostal averaging just 2.69 Goals Against per game, negative regression looms large over the Ducks goalie as his back line's lack of coverage continues to put him in high pressure situations. In what should be a high scoring affair, escalator bet the full game total by placing smaller wagers on each over.
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With the Jets defense continuing to regress, Frank Vatrano will have the opportunity to exploit their gaps in coverage and sustain his aggressive level of play as the focal point of the Ducks offense. As of writing, the Ducks forward is averaging 0.41 Expected Goals and 3.32 Shots on Goal per game. The Jets back up goalie Eric Comrie is also projected to get the start on Wednesday night, increasing the chances of Vatrano scoring a goal as he is a sizable drop off in production when compared to Connor Hellebuyck.
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