After a 5-5-0 stretch of play in their last 10 contests, the Carolina Hurricanes odds to win the Metropolitan division title have steadily declined while the Washington Capitals grow their lead for first. Fortunately for Carolina, they have the opportunity to round back into form and chip away at the gap between them and the Capitals with a favorable matchup against the lowly New York Islanders.
Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the New Jersey Devils as their defense has the opportunity to put together a dazzling performance against the anemic St. Louis Blues offense. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for the Blues this season as their front line enters the contest ranked near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
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Even though the New York Islanders are 12-13-7 and in seventh place in the Metropolitan division standings, they are actually just one point back from the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Their slow start to the year can be attributed to their offense as the Islanders currently rank 26th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.86 Expected Goals per game.
Their struggles on offense are poised to persist as the Hurricanes back line continues to steadily improve. Once ranked near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the Hurricanes now reside in the top-10. With their back line smothering opposing shot attempts at a more consistent rate, their starting goalie Pytor Kochetkov has been able to sustain his high level of play in net. Against the anemic Islanders offense, expect the Hurricanes defense to put together another dominant performance.
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Andrei Svechnikov has played a major role in the Hurricanes top-3 mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations as he continues to excel at creating high quality scoring opportunities as his current averages in Expected Goals and Shots on Goal indicates. Against an Islanders defense who ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, expect the Hurricanes forward to take advantage of his high quality shooting lanes and consistently generate Shots on Goal towards the Islanders net.
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Speaking of a lack of offensive production, the St. Louis Blues have struggled mightily with playing at a competitive level as their front line currently ranks 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.64 Expected Goals per game. The Blues are heavily reliant on the play of Jordan Kyrou and Jake Neighbours as no one else on the roster averages more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
With a lack of versatility, the Blues offense will struggle to exploit the gaps in New Jersey’s coverage as the Devils defense ranks third overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and sixth in 5-on-5 Play. To make matters worse for the Blues offense, Jacob Markstrom has been excellent in his starts this season as the Devils goalie is averaging just 2.35 Goals Against per game and a .908 Save Percentage. With suffocating coverage in front of him, expect Markstrom to stone wall the Blues offense.
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While the Blues offense has struggled, their back line has fared far better as their defense ranks 15th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. To help break their coverage, the Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton will need to be aggressive by firing off shots towards their net from the blue line. Not only does this scramble the Blues defense, but it also opens up gaps in their coverage for Hamilton to exploit and set himself up for a higher quality scoring opportunity.
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