After a slow start to the season, the Dallas Stars have recently hit their stride due to an improved level of play on defense and have chipped away at the Winnipeg Jets lead for first place in the Central division standings. While the Stars defense has improved throughout the year, the Washington Capitals back line has regressed. That opens the door for the Stars to win in regulation on Monday night, especially if their own defense can slow down the Capitals high powered offense.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Colorado Avalanche as their revamped defense gets the opportunity to build on their momentum with a favorable matchup against the anemic Vancouver Canucks offense. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for the Canucks front line this season as their offense enters the contest ranked near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
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Even though the Washington Capitals are in first place in the Eastern Conference standings, regression looms large as their defense continues to trend in the wrong direction. Once considered one of the better units in the league, the Capitals back line has dropped down to 15th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations as opposing offenses have found more success in their efforts of generating high quality Shots on Goal.
Against Dallas, expect the Capitals defensive woes to persist as they get the unfortunate task of having to defend against a Stars offense who ranks top-8 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Maintaining their current mark in Expected Goals For may also be a struggle for the Capitals as the Stars back line has steadily improved throughout the year. With better coverage in front of him, Jake Oettinger will be in a great position to wall off the Capitals high powered offense to help cover the puck line.
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It’s been a rough few weeks of play for the Stars Calder Memorial Trophy contender Logan Stankoven as he has generated only two points in his last 12 outings. Even during his slump, Stankoven has still been aggressive in his efforts of pressuring the opposing net as he enters the contest averaging 2.85 Shots on Goal per game. With the Capitals back line struggling to defend their net, expect Stankoven to continue to generate a high amount of Shots on Goal while taking advantage of their high quality shooting lanes.
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Speaking of regression, the Vancouver Canucks offense has severely struggled as of late as they head into Monday’s contest against the Colorado Avalanche ranked 31st in Expected Goals For in All Situations and 32nd in 5-on-5 Play. A major reason for the Canucks struggles on offense stems from their lack of versatility as only three players average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
With an inability to space out the Avs coverage, the Canucks front line will continue to struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal. Especially with Colorado’s back line excelling at smothering opposing shot attempts as the Avs defense enters the contest ranked in the top half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.88 Expected Goals Against per game. On top of betting the Canucks team total under, sprinkle a wager on Colorado to cover the puck line as well.
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While Vancouver’s offense has struggled, their defense has thrived as the Canucks back line currently ranks fifth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. To help scramble their stout coverage, the Avs Cale Makar will need to be aggressive in his efforts of pressuring their net from the blue line. Not only does this help create gaps in the Canucks coverage for higher quality scoring opportunities, but it may also result in a Shot on Goal.
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