After going through a prolonged cold stretch of play earlier in the season, the Dallas Stars have started to show signs of why they were listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup heading into the year. Against the Nashville Predators, the Stars will have the opportunity to build on their momentum and continue to chip away at the gap between them and the Minnesota Wild in the Central division standings.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Colorado Avalanche as they look to keep pace with the Dallas Stars in total points and avoid having to fend off the rest of the Western Conference in the wildcard standings. With their offense excelling at generating high quality Shots on Goal, the Avs front line will have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard against the lowly Utah defense.
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It’s been a tale of two halves for the Dallas Stars defense as they started the year ranked well below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations before steadily creeping into the top half of the board as of writing. With an improved level of play on their back end, the Stars have drastically reduced the amount of variance in their contests which has helped them win at a more consistent rate.
Not only does the Stars back line get the opportunity to smother an anemic Nashville offense, but their own front line will be in a position to consistently generate high quality scoring opportunities as the Predators defense has been just as underwhelming. Heading into Thursday, the Predators defense ranks 24th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With clear advantages on both sides of the ice, expect the Stars to win in regulation and cover the puck line.
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Roope Hintz has been one of the Stars more consistent sources of production this season as the forward is currently averaging 0.39 Expected Goals and 2.35 Shots on Goal per game. Hintz gets the benefit of playing alongside Wyatt Johnson who continues to steadily improve in his efforts of generating a high amount of Expected Goals. Should Johnston continue to command defensive attention, then Hintz will have the opportunity to exploit the gaps in coverage for high quality scoring opportunities.
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With reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge, the Colorado Avalanche continue to rank near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. The Avs field plenty of playmakers who are all capable of generating high quality Shots on Goal as eight players currently average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
Against the Utah Hockey Club, the Avs offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of lighting up the scoreboard as they face off against a back line who ranks 25th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.22 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially if Connor Ingram gets the starting nod in net as he continues to struggle with walling off opposing Shots on Goal as he enters the contest averaging 3.61 Goals Against per game and a .871 Save Percentage.
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Since returning from injury, Ross Colton has only generated one point in his last three contests. His latest outing was especially underwhelming as he finished with zero points while failing to generate one Shot on Goal. A sharp contrast from his season long averages as the Avs forward is currently averaging 0.52 Expected Goals and 3.23 Shots on Goal per game. Against the Hockey Club’s underwhelming defense, expect Colton to round back into form and capitalize on his high quality shooting lanes.
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