Even though the Edmonton Oilers are listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Pacific division title, they have their work cut out for them as they are currently in fifth place with a 13-10-2 record and .560 point percentage. Fortunately for Edmonton, they have the opportunity to chip away at the Vegas Golden Knights with a favorable matchup against the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets.
Before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Tampa Bay Lightning as they look to stay afloat in the Atlantic division standings while Nikita Kucherov is out with an injury. As of writing, their star forward is expected to make his return in the near future as he is currently listed as day-to-day. Even without his elite production, the Lightning should have no issue with winning in regulation against the San Jose Sharks as they severely underwhelm on both sides of the ice.
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After a slow start to the season, Edmonton has started to show signs of why they are listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup as the Oilers head into Thursday ranked top-10 in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. An impressive feat as the Oilers have had to deal with injuries throughout the year, disrupting their chemistry and slowing down their progression.
Even at less than 100%, the Oilers still outclass the Blue Jackets on both sides of the ice. Generating offensive production has been a struggle for Columbus this season as the Blue Jackets offense currently ranks 20th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. That bodes well for the Oilers Stuart Skinner as their starting goalie has struggled with walling off shots this season, entering the contest averaging 2.97 Goals Against per game and a .889 Save Percentage.
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Just when the Edmonton Oilers were starting to build some momentum, horror struck when Zach Hyman went down with an injury. Hyman was a consistent source of production for the Oilers offense as he averaged 0.48 Expected Goals and 2.50 Shots on Goal per game. With Hyman out, Hart Memorial Trophy contender Connor McDavid will have to be more aggressive in his efforts of pressuring the Blue Jackets net to help the Oilers secure the win and avoid a backbreaking loss.
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Speaking of injuries, the 2023-2024 point leader Nikita Kucherov is currently listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. While his injury would be detrimental to most teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning are fortunately deep enough to mask his loss of production. Excluding Kucherov, the Lightning field four players who average more than 0.35 Expected Goals per game.
Against San Jose, the Lightning should have no issue with maintaining their high marks on offense as the Sharks back line currently ranks 28th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 3.44 Expected Goals Against per game. Especially if Vitek Vanecek gets the start in net as the Sharks backup goalie is averaging 3.52 Goals Against per game. With Tampa’s scoring intact, the Lightning will have the opportunity to secure the win in regulation as the Sharks front line has been equally as underwhelming as their defense.
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As for who will do the scoring for the Lightning offense, Brayden Point has excelled at creating high quality scoring opportunities this season as he currently leads the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.48 per game. While he will be without Kucherov’s elite facilitating abilities, his uptick in shot attempts will more than make up for it as he should shoulder a heavier workload during his absence. With the Sharks defense struggling to provide their net proper coverage, expect Point to net his 17th goal of the season.
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