After the Edmonton Oilers were shut out by the Montreal Canadiens in embarrassing fashion, they now hit the road to play the Ottawa Senators in the second half of their back to back road stretch. That puts their offense in a tough spot while dealing with regression as the Senators defense will do them no favors in their efforts of rounding back into form as Ottawa enters the contest ranked top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
Later in the night, we target the matchup between the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets as the reigning Stanley Cup champions and the current Presidents’ Trophy front runners are set up for a defensive slugfest. Both units have struggled to generate Expected Goals at a consistent rate this season, now having to do so against a pair of back lines who both excel at limiting opposing offensive production.
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It was a shockingly poor performance from the Edmonton Oilers offense as they were held scoreless against a Montreal Canadiens defense who ranks 31st overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. While the Expected Goals scoreboard indicates the Oilers offense were a tad unlucky as they generated 2.97 Expected Goals, they still would have comfortably lost as the Montreal Canadiens clocked in at 5.03.
Now having to play on the road for the second straight night, the Oilers offensive woes are poised to persist as the Ottawa Senators defense ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. No matter who gets the starting nod at goalie for the Senators, their defense gets the benefit of receiving consistent production from their goaltenders as both Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg are averaging less than three Goals Against per game.
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Not only are the Oilers offense expected to struggle, but their back line may also regress due to playing on tired legs while defending against a well rested Senators front line. That bodes well for the Senators Brady Tkachuk as he has excelled at pressuring opposing goalies this season, entering the contest averaging 4.24 Shots on Goal per game. With the Oilers back line potentially creating wider gaps in coverage due to sluggish transitions across the ice, expect Tkachuk to continue to generate a high amount of Shots on Goal.
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While a matchup between the reigning Stanley Cup champions and the current front runners for the Presidents’ Trophy seems exciting on paper, fans should temper their expectations of goals being scored as both the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets excel at neutralizing opposing offensive production. As of writing, the Jets defense ranks third overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations while the Panthers back line ranks 12th in 5-on-5 Play.
Better yet for the Panthers, their slightly above average defense gets the opportunity to build on their momentum as the Jets offense ranks 17th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Factor in both teams rolling out a pair of goalies who were considered contenders for the Vezina Trophy award heading into the year and this game has all the makings for a low scoring affair. Escalator bet the alternate full game unders while looking to add more live should someone manage to score early on in their contest.
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With both offenses expected to struggle with generating offensive production, there should be a decrease in the amount of Shots on Goal being fired at each other's net. That spells potential disaster for the Panthers Aleksander Barkov as he has already struggled with getting his shot attempts towards the opposing net this season, entering the contest averaging just 1.80 Shots on Goal per game. With the Jets back line excelling in coverage, expect another low output from the Panthers forward.
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