Not only are the Winnipeg Jets moving up the oddsboard for the Central division title, but they are also building a case as a potential contender for the Stanley Cup. Their metrics back up their success as the Jets currently rank above league average in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Heading into Tuesday, we may get a preview of the championship as they are set to face off against the New York Rangers.
Shortly after their puck drop, we target the matchup between the New Jersey Devils and Florida Panthers as Florida’s regressing offense faces off against a Devils back line who ranks fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. While the Devils have yet to name their starting goalie for this matchup, expect the Panthers offense to continue to struggle as both Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen rank top-20 in average Goals Against per game.
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While the Jets defense hogs most of the spotlight as their back line ranks first overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, their front line has quietly strung together a hot stretch of play as their offense now ranks 11th overall in Expected Goals For. Heading into Tuesday, the Jets surging offense will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against a Rangers defense who ranks 26th overall in Expected Goals Against.
Every bit of their offensive production will be needed in order to match the Rangers output, even with reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck getting the start as the Rangers offense averages over four Expected Goals per game. With both offenses in a position to generate a high amount of Shots on Goal, escalator bet the full game total by sprinkling smaller sized wagers on each over.
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With the Jets defense excelling at limiting opposing offensive production, the Rangers front line will need to be more aggressive in their efforts of scrambling their coverage by sending the puck towards the net at a higher rate. Chris Kreider has excelled at pressuring opposing goalies this season as the Rangers forward is averaging 0.62 Expected Goals and 2.62 Shots on Goal per game. Back Kreider to capitalize on his uptick in shot attempts by scoring a goal against the vaunted Jets defense.
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Even though the Florida Panthers lead the Atlantic division with 23 total points, negative regression looms large over the reigning Stanley Cup champions as their offense continues to struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal. As of writing, the Panthers offense currently ranks 20th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 2.98 Expected Goals per game. A drastic drop off when compared to last year’s mark as the Panthers finished 2023-2024 with an average of 3.72.
Their struggles on offense are poised to persist against the Devils as the current Metropolitan division leaders rank above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their goalies have played a major role in their high marks on defense as both Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen rank top-20 in average Goals Against per game while possessing a Save Percentage of .902 or higher. No matter who gets the starting nod for the Devils, expect the Panthers offense to continue to underwhelm.
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After reconfiguring their back line in the offseason, Florida’s defense has struggled with smothering opposing Shots on Goal at a consistent rate as they rank 15th overall in Expected Goals Against. That bodes well for the Devils Nico Hischier as he excels at generating high quality scoring opportunities while playing alongside Timo Meier, leading the team in Expected Goals with an average of 0.50 a game. Expect Hischier to continue to exploit the gaps in coverage while Meier commands defensive attention, putting himself in a favorable position to score.
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