Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Detroit’s Offense Continues to Underwhelm

After entering the year projected to improve on last year’s below league average marks in Expected Goals For in All Situations, Detroit’s offense has quickly trended in the wrong direction as the Red Wings front line currently ranks 27th overall. Heading into Friday, their offense will continue to struggle with generating high quality Shots on Goal as they face off against a Toronto defense who excels at smothering opposing shot attempts.

Shortly after that game gets underway, we turn our attention towards the Washington Capitals as they get a favorable matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins to help improve their position in the Metropolitan division standings. The Capitals surging offense will have the opportunity to build on their momentum as the Penguins defense continues to rank near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

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Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

Detroit Red Wings Team Total Under 2.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

After spending a majority of their offseason attempting to bolster their offensive production, it’s safe to say Detroit has severely underwhelmed this season as the Red Wings currently rank near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Other than Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat, no one on the Red Wings averages more than 0.3 Expected Goals per game. Even more shocking, no one on Detroit averages more than three Shots on Goal per game.

Against Toronto, the Red Wings front line will continue to struggle with generating Shots on Goal as the Maple Leafs enter the contest ranked sixth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Not only have the Maple Leafs back line excelled at smothering opposing shot attempts, but their goaltending has also been excellent. Starting goalie Anthony Stolarz has been building an early case for the Vezina Trophy award as he is averaging 2.12 Goals Against per game and a Save Percentage of .928.

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William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer (+140) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Hart Memorial Trophy contender Auston Matthews has struggled to recapture last year’s success, William Nylander has been a consistent source of offensive production for the Maple Leafs as he is averaging 3.36 Shots on Goal per game and 0.44 Expected Goals. Matthews is also dealing with a lower body injury and his status for Friday is currently in question. Should Matthews have to sit this one out, then Nylander may be tasked with generating even more offense to help mask Auston’s loss of production.

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Washington Capitals Team Total Over 2.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Projected to be a wildcard contender at best, the Washington Capitals continue to defy expectations by hanging around the top of the Metropolitan division standings. Their metrics back up their success as the Capitals are one of the few teams in the league who currently rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their offense has been especially dominant as they are one of three teams who average more than four Expected Goals per game.

Heading into Friday, the Capitals offense will have the opportunity to continue to generate a high amount of Expected Goals as Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 30th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with the Penguins most likely turning towards their backup goalie Joel Blomqvist after Alex Nedeljkovic got the start on Thursday, entering the contest ranked 47th of all qualified goalies in Goals Against per game with an average 3.47.

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Washington Capitals Puck Line -1.5 (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook

While the Penguins offense have performed far better than their defense by ranking sixth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations, their high rate of Shots on Goal is expected to regress against a Capitals back line that excels at smothering opposing shot attempts. With their own back line struggling to limit opposing offensive production, the Penguins will be prone to falling behind on the scoreboard early while also struggling to stay within the Capitals scoring pace.

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