After comfortably beating the New York Rangers on Tuesday night, the Washington Capitals continue to build their case for being a viable contender for the Metropolitan division title.
They are currently tied for first with the Carolina Hurricanes in the division for the best point percentage with 12 total points in 8 games played, now having the opportunity to strengthen their position for first with a favorable matchup against the Montreal Canadiens.
At the same time as the Canadiens and Capitals, the Carolina Hurricanes face off against the reeling Boston Bruins in an attempt to match Washington’s point percentage. Carolina’s offense has quietly been one of the more dominant units in the league, entering the contest ranked top-2 in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
With the Bruins back line struggling to smother opposing shot attempts, expect the Hurricanes offense to continue to generate a high amount of Expected Goals.
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Not only did the Capitals make a statement with a 5-3 win over the New York Rangers, but their offense actually played far better than what the scoreboard indicates as they finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 8.63. A stunning level of play after hovering around league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations, yet the Capitals offense continues to improve with each game played and are steadily building their case for being a viable playoff contender.
Heading into Thursday, the Capitals offense has the opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against the Montreal Canadiens who rank 31st overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their lack of production in net plays a major factor towards their underwhelming defensive metrics as their pair of goalies average a combined 3.84 Goals Against per game and a Save Percentage of .881. With an inability to wall off low quality Shots on Goal, back the Capitals to clear their team total over.
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With the Capitals in a position to exploit the Canadiens gaps in coverage, value in the anytime goalscorer market shades towards their offense as they should generate a higher amount of Shots on Goal. That makes Tom Wilson an intriguing pick as he continues to hover around the top of the board for the Capitals in Expected Goals by averaging 0.39 per game. Be sure to line shop as his odds can be found as high as +220 at FanDuel and as low as +195 at BetMGM.
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While the New York Rangers still rank first overall in Expected Goals For with an average of 4.47, the Carolina Hurricanes have drastically closed the gap between the two as their offense is now averaging 4.31 Expected Goals per game. Every bit of their offensive production has been needed while their defense continues to underwhelm, entering Thursday ranked in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals Against.
With Carolina’s defense struggling to play at a competitive level, we solely focus on their offense as they get the benefit of facing off against a Boston Bruins defense who ranks 26th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even if Vezina Trophy contender Jeremy Swayman gets the starting nod as expected, the Hurricanes offense should still be able to generate a high amount of Expected Goals due to the Bruins inability to smother opposing shot attempts.
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As for who will be the biggest benefactor due to the Bruins lack of coverage, Carolina’s Sebastion Aho may receive an uptick in Shots on Goal as the focal point of the Hurricanes offense. Heading into Thursday, Aho ranks second on the team in Shots on Goal by averaging 3.38 per game. With Boston’s back line struggling to smother opposing shot attempts, expect Aho to capitalize on his high quality shooting lanes while racking up Shots on Goal.
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