In nine games played, the 8-1-0 Winnipeg Jets currently lead the Central division with 16 total points. Not only are they the current division leaders, but the Jets are also the front runners for the Presidents’ Trophy as their 16 points leads the entire league. Heading into Wednesday, the Jets have the opportunity to build on their lead with a favorable matchup against the Detroit Red Wings.
Later in the night we turn our attention towards the New Jersey Devils and Vancouver Canucks as scoring opportunities may come far and few inbetween with two elite defensive units taking the ice. That spells potential trouble for Vancouver as the Canucks offense has struggled to consistently generate Shots on Goal as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
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While we normally target team total overs when fading the Detroit Red Wings, the Winnipeg Jets front line have struggled to generate consistent offensive production as they currently rank well below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Other than Kyle Connor, no one averages more than three Shots on Goal per game while only Connor, Scheifele, and Niederreiter average more than 0.30 Expected Goals.
Even with the Jets drawing a favorable matchup against a defense that ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against, you are better off targeting them to win the game in regulation than their team total over. Even if their offense still struggles to score, the Red Wings offense will also have a tough time generating Shots on Goal as the Jets defense ranks sixth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Reminder, if this goes to overtime then your wager is graded as a loss even if the Jets win.
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As previously mentioned, Kyle Connor has been one of the Jets lone consistent sources of offensive production as he enters the contest leading the team in Shots on Goal and is third overall in Expected Goals. With the Red Wings back line struggling to give their goalies proper coverage, expect Kyle Connor to generate another high volume attack at their net.
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With the New York Rangers losing to the Washington Capitals on Tuesday, the New Jersey Devils hold on to first in the Metropolitan division standings. Their lead at the top of the standings is prone to crumbling as they have had the benefit of playing in more games than the rest of the division. Should the Devils want to strengthen their position for first, then their defense must take advantage of the Canucks inability to score as Vancouver enters the contest ranked 17th overall in Expected Goals For.
That bodes well for the Devils as their back line continues to rank near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their coverage is vital as Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen have steadily regressed the past two weeks, averaging over three Goals Against per game. Even with their struggles in net, the Canucks offense will be hard pressed to exploit it as the Devils back line smothers their shot attempts and lessens the quality of their Shots on Goal.
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With the Devils back line excelling at smothering opposing shot attempts, value in the Shots on Goal market shades towards the Canucks unders as their forwards will struggle to create separation from their coverage. Elias Pettersson has been especially underwhelming in his efforts of sending pucks towards the net as he enters the contest ranked 10th on the team in Shots on Goal with an average of 1.49 per game. Grabbing a 2.5 is vital as some sportsbooks have listed him at 1.5 which makes this bet a pass.
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