After skating circles around multiple underwhelming back lines, the Presidents’ Trophy contending New York Rangers face their toughest test yet when they hit the road to battle it out against the surging Washington Capitals. The stakes are high as both clubs look to continue to climb up the Metropolitan division standings.
We then turn our attention towards the matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks as negative regression looms large over the Sharks offense. After being walled off by the Utah Hockey Club for a majority of the contest, the Sharks scored an astonishing three goals in five minutes to win in overtime. With tired legs and a far more productive back line taking the ice, expect the Sharks offense to fall back down to reality.
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After backing the New York Rangers offense on multiple occasions earlier in the year, we flip the script as their front line faces their hardest defensive assignment to date in a matchup against the Washington Capitals. As of writing, the Capitals back line ranks top-5 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. A majority of their back line's success comes from their ability to limit the rate of Shots on Goal being fired at their net as the Capitals rank second overall in opposing Shots on Goal per Game.
Limiting the number of the Rangers Shots on Goal is key for the Capitals as their goalies have still struggled to play at a consistently high rate. Especially Logan Thompson as he is averaging 3.28 Goals Against per game and a Save Percentage of .884 in three games played. Every bit of their back line’s defensive production will be needed as the Rangers offense still leads the league in Expected Goals For by averaging 4.7 Expected Goals per game.
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With the Rangers offense facing off against a defense who excels at smothering opposing shot attempts, the Rangers front line will struggle to generate Shots on Goal towards the Capitals net. That turns my attention towards Mika Zibanejad as he has been more involved in a facilitating role this season, entering the contest averaging just two Shots on Goal per Game. To try and shift the Capitals defense to help create gaps in their coverage, expect Zibanejad to continue to facilitate instead of pressuring the net.
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After looking like our team total under bet on San Jose was going to comfortably cash, the Sharks managed to score three goals in the last five minutes of regulation to beat the Utah Hockey Club 5-4 in overtime. A shocking stretch of play and one that can be labeled as flukeish as the Sharks ended the contest with an Expected Goal of 2.89 when you factor out their 4-on-3 overtime goal.
While the Utah Hockey Club’s back line is a formidable unit in their own right, the Los Angeles Kings are a far higher quality of defense as they enter the contest ranked fourth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.69 Expected Goals per game. With tired legs and negative regression looming large, expect the Sharks bottom ranked offense in Expected Goals For to struggle to generate high quality Shots on Goal against a stout Kings back line.
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Like their offense, the Sharks defense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in total number of opposing Shots on Goal. That indicates the Sharks struggle to smother opposing shot attempts, allowing pucks to be sent towards their net at a high rate. With Kevin Fiala continuing to pressure opposing goalies as the team leader in Shots on Goal and Expected Goals, expect the Kings forward to churn out another high amount of Shots on Goal against the Sharks underwhelming coverage.
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