After entering the year listed as the betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup, the Edmonton Oilers have yet to look the part as they are currently near the bottom of the overall standings with a 2-4-1 record and five total points. Their offense has been especially disappointing as they currently rank just 11th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations after retaining a majority of their roster that propelled them to league high marks in Expected Goals last season.
Heading into Friday, the Oilers offense have the opportunity to round back into form and build some momentum as they are set to face off against one of the worst defenses in the league in a matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Speaking of building momentum, the Nashville Predators are in desperate need of sparking a hot stretch of play after pushing their chips in the middle of the table by retooling their roster over the offseason.
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Even though Edmonton’s offense does rank above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations, Oiler fans can’t help but feel disappointed after the same cast of stars led their team to top of the board marks in the same metric last season. Other than Hart Memorial Trophy favorite Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Jeff Skinner, the rest of the Oilers have struggled with sustaining a consistent high level of play and have hampered the Oilers on ice production.
Fortunately for Edmonton, their offense has the opportunity to round back into form and build some much needed momentum as they are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Penguins who rank 31st overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their pair of goalies have played a major role in their low marks on defense, averaging a combined 4.31 Goals Against per Game and a Save Percentage of .870. With a potential uptick in high quality Shots on Goal, back the Oilers to clear their team total over.
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While a majority of the Oilers have struggled with pressuring opposing goalies, Jeff Skinner has been one of their lone consistent sources of production as he currently ranks first overall in Shots on Goal by averaging nearly four Shots on Goal per Game. With the Penguins back line failing to smother opposing shot attempts, expect Skinner to continue to exploit the gaps in coverage and take advantage of the high quality shooting lanes towards the net.
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While the Edmonton Oilers have been disappointing due to their continuity failing to recapture last year’s success, the Nashville Predators have disappointed for a different reason as their acquisitions in the offseason have yet to make an impact while getting off to a 1-5-0 start. Fortunately for Nashville, positive regression looms large as they are one of the few teams in the league who currently rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Entering the contest against the Blackhawks, the Predators offense will have the opportunity to sustain their high marks in Expected Goals For as they face off against a Blackhawks back line who ranks well below league average in Expected Goals Against. When looking at the Blackhawks most recent shot chart, Chicago gives up a high number of looks right in front of their net which translates to a higher mark in Expected Goals.
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Speaking of the Predators offseason additions struggling to make an impact, former Tampa Bay Lightning Steven Stamkos has yet to live up to the hype as he has only generated one point on one goal scored in six games played. While his low total is concerning, Stamkos has been very unlucky in the scoring department as he leads the team in Expected Goals. Back positive regression to swing towards his way, getting the opportunity to net his second goal of the year against a back line who struggles in coverage
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