Friday’s slate may feature just three total games, but there are plenty of props for us to groom through for our betting pleasure. We kick off the slate focusing on the best defense in the league as the Winnipeg Jets back line are given an opportunity to continue to play at a high level as they host a San Jose Sharks offense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For in All SItuations.
Shortly after that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Anaheim Ducks and Colorado Avalanche as the Avs defensive woes may once again be on full display against a productive Ducks offense. Even when their back line has excelled at lessening the quality of opposing Shots on Goal, both Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen have struggled to wall them off when in net.
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After finishing last year ranked dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations and 31st in 5-on-5 Play, the San Jose Sharks offense are already on the same trajectory as they rank well below league average in both metrics this season. To make matters worse for the Sharks, Calder Memorial Trophy contender Macklin Celebrini suffered an injury in his debut after scoring one goal and generating one assist in his limited appearance.
While their front line was already projected to struggle, losing Celebrini hurts even more as he was expected to play a key role for their offense. With a lack of offensive production, generating high quality Shots on Goal will seem daunting against Winnipeg as their back line enters the contest ranked first overall in Expected Goals Against. While some books are hanging a flat two, drink the juice on a 2.5 at Caesars for some added security in what should be a low scoring affair for the Sharks offense.
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Not only have the Sharks offense struggled, but their defense has been equally as awful as they enter the contest ranked 27th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. While Winnipeg’s offense has yet to catch up to their defense in terms of production, they will still be given plenty of high quality scoring opportunities. With Kyle Connor continuing to be aggressive in his efforts of generating a high amount of Shots on Goal, back the Jets forward to find the back of the net in this contest.
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Even though the Avs defense ranks 13th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations by averaging just 2.81, opposing offenses have had no issue with finding the back of the net as the Avs have now given up a combined 25 goals in four games played. A shockingly poor performance for a unit that was projected to make a run to the Stanley Cup, but they have looked anything but the part as they are now 0-4-0.
While their high rank in Expected Goals Against usually indicates positive regression is looming large, their horrific play in net may be bad enough to ward off the positive regression. As of writing, Alexandar Georgiev is averaging an astonishing 5.79 Goals Against per Game and a Save Percentage of .800 while Justus Annunen is averaging 4.69 Goals Against and a Save Percentage of .765. Continue to fade the Avs defense, especially with the Ducks offense ranking top-10 in Expected Goals For.
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With the Avs defense giving their own offense minimal support, Colorado’s top line will have to be more aggressive in their efforts of pressuring the Ducks goalie to stay within Anaheim’s scoring pace. Mikko Rantanen has been one of the Avs main sources of offensive production this year, ranking near the top of the board in both Shots on Goal and Expected Goals for the Avs. Expect another heavy output from the Avs forward, especially if they get put in another high variance contest.
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