After cashing the over on the New York Rangers team total against the Detroit Red Wings earlier in the year, we go back to the well as their high powered offense gets another opportunity to skate circles around one of the worst defenses in the league. The Red Wings lack of productive additions on defense in the offseason have immediately come back to bite them, entering Thursday’s contest ranked near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
Before that takes place, we turn our attention towards the Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning as both offenses will have the opportunity to score at a high rate. Defense has been optional for both clubs this season, taking the ice ranked well below league average in Expected Goals Against. With both offenses generating a high amount of Expected Goals, expect an uptick in scoring in what should be a thrilling matchup.
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After beating the Red Wings 4-1 in their previous contest, the Rangers have the opportunity to make it a clean sweep as their high powered offense will be in a position to run up the score against one of the worst defenses in the league. Smothering opposing Shots on Goal has been a struggle for the Red Wings back line this season, entering Thursday’s contest ranked 27th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and 26th in 5-on-5 Play.
The Red Wings inability to keep pucks from being fired at their net spells doom for Detroit’s chances of keeping points off the board as the Rangers enter the contest ranked first overall in Expected Goals For. Not only do the Rangers offense ranks first overall, but they are first by a wide margin as they are nearly averaging five Expected Goals per 60 minutes of play. An unsustainable mark, but one that may continue in this contest as the Red Wings give up high quality Shots on Goal at an alarming rate.
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While the Red Wings defense struggles to slow down the Rangers assault, it will be up to their own offense to stay within scoring pace. Fortunately for Detroit, they will have the ability to do just that as the Rangers have struggled to defend their net when in 5-on-5 Play. With the Red Wings Vladimir Tarasenko consistently generating a high amount of Expected Goals, expect the newly acquired forward to net his second goal of the year.
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After losing their longtime captain Steven Stamkos to the Nashville Predators in the offseason, question marks loomed over the Tampa Bay Lightning offense as for how they would replicate his loss of production. One week into the season and it seems those question marks should have been pointed towards their defense as the Lightning currently rank second overall in Expected Goals For and 31st overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
With their defense ranking near dead last in Expected Goals Against, the Golden Knights offense will be in a position to round back into form after being held to just two goals in their last contest against the lowly Washington Capitals. Especially with their star duo of Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev getting into a groove while creeping up the board in Expected Goals, now getting the chance to start the scoring early against a Lightning top line that is still gelling together.
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Speaking of the Lightning’s top line, it’s already apparent that last year’s point leader and Hart Memorial Trophy contender Nikita Kucherov will have to shoulder a heavier workload to maintain their high marks on offense. In two games played, Kucherov has already scored four goals and generated one assist. With the Golden Knights back line also struggling with limiting the quality of opposing Shots on Goal, expect the Lightning to stay within scoring pace with Kucherov as their main source of production.
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