Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over the Avs Defense

Even though the Colorado Avalanche are 0-3-0 and have allowed a combined 20 goals against them in their losses, their defense has actually played far better than what the scoreboard indicates. Heading into Wednesday night, the Avs defense actually ranks ninth overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations by averaging just 2.88 per 60 minutes of play. With the Boston Bruins struggling to generate high quality Shots on Goal, the Avs defense will be in a position to finally round back into form.

Shortly before that puck drops, we turn our attention towards the Los Angeles Kings and Toronto Maple Leafs as Toronto’s defense will have the opportunity to continue their hot start to their year. Generating consistent offensive production has been a struggle for the Los Angeles Kings offense this season, now having to find answers in a pinch against one of the best defenses in the league.

As for where to wager on NHL props, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front runner for the league as they offer an abundance of markets for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to wager on Wednesday’s slate of NHL props, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Boston Bruins vs. Colorado Avalanche - Prop Bets (9:30 PM, EST)

Boston Bruins Under 3 Total Goals (-115) at BetMGM

Heading into the year, question marks loomed over the Avs back line after severely underwhelming in their 2023-2024 campaign. Three games into this season and they have yet to answer those questions after conceding a combined 20 goals in three games played. While the total number of goals scored against them is alarming, their defense has actually played at a far better rate as they currently rank above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Fortunately for the Avs, their defense has the opportunity to round back into form as they are set to face off against a Boston Bruins offense who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals For. A slow start to their year was to be expected from Boston after having to reconfigure their top line, now having to try and stay within the Avs blistering fast pace while still working on their own chemistry. That may result in an uptick of low quality Shots on Goal being sent towards the net, increasing the chance of getting walled off.

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Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 Points (-140) at BetMGM

While Boston’s offense still tries to gel together, the Avs core remains intact and will have the opportunity to apply serious pressure to a Bruins back line who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in 5-on-5 Play. That feeds in Hart Memorial Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon’s aggressiveness, putting him in a position to generate high quality scoring opportunities while also still being the team’s main facilitator.

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Los Angeles Kings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Los Angeles Kings Under 2.5 Total Goals (+100) at BetMGM

After dedicating their offseason to adding more defensive production to help be better equipped for a run to the Stanley Cup, the Toronto Maple Leafs additions look to have already paid off as they rank top-3 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With their top ranked defense, the Maple Leafs are one of the few teams in the league who rank above league average in both Expected Goals Against and Expected Goals For in All Situations.

Against the Los Angeles Kings, the Maple Leafs defense will have the opportunity to maintain their high level of play as the Kings have struggled with generating offensive production. In three games played, the Kings rank in the bottom half of the board in total number of Shots on Goal and Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play. Expect their struggles to continue as the Maple Leafs excel at smothering opposing shot attempts.

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Auston Matthews First Goalscorer (+650) at Caesars

With the Kings offense struggling to generate Shots on Goal, value shades towards the Maple Leafs in the first goalscorer market. While their star forward Auston Matthews has yet to find the back of the net this season, he has still been aggressive in his efforts of pressuring opposing goalies as he leads the team in Expected Goals. Back Matthews to get back on track against the Kings, sparking another potential run to his goal of scoring over 70 total goals.

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