After losing to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Rangers came into this season with revenge on their mind as they brought back a majority of their core that led them to a deep run in the playoffs last year. Their continuity has already shown to pay immediate dividends as the New York Rangers offense ranks first overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and by a wide margin.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the matchup between the New York Islanders and Colorado Avalanche as the Avs defense has the opportunity to round back into form after two lackluster outings. While the Avs defense have conceded a total of 14 goals against them in two contests, positive regression looms large as they actually rank top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
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After the conclusion of the 2023-2024 regular season, oddsmakers believed the New York Rangers would be in a position to make another deep run in the playoffs by listing them as one of the betting favorites to win the Eastern Conference Championship. Two games into the year, and the Rangers already look the part as their offense ranks first overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations at 4.96 Expected Goals per Game while no one else averages more than 4.00.
Heading into Monday’s matchup against the Detroit Red Wings, the Rangers offense will be in a position to continue to succeed as Detroit’s defense continues to struggle with limiting the quality of opposing shots on goal. Defense was a struggle last year for Detroit, now already ranked well below league average in Expected Goals Against in 5-on-5 Play two games into the year. Expect another high volume attack from the Rangers offense, resulting in points being put up on the board.
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Chris Kreider has been the Rangers most consistent source of offensive output in regard to generating a high amount of Expected Goals, finishing his last two games with an Expected Goal of 0.80 or higher. Expect Kreider to continue to fire high quality shots on goal against the Red Wings lowly defense, putting himself in a favorable position to score his third goal in as many games.
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After coming into the year as one of the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup, the Colorado Avalanche have got off to a rough start by going 0-2 in their first two contests while allowing in a combined 14 goals. While averaging seven goals scored against them per game is a recipe for disaster, their defense has actually played at a far better rate than what the box score suggests as the Avs currently rank top-10 in Expected Goals Against.
That indicates positive regression is looming large for the Avs defense, potentially taking effect as early as Monday as they get the benefit of walling off an anemic New York Islanders offense. Offensive production was tough to come by for the Islanders for a majority of last season, now looking to already be on the same trajectory as they currently rank below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
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While the Avs defense has struggled with keeping opposing pucks out of their net, their offense has not skipped a beat as they already rank top-5 in Expected Goals For. Cale Makar has played a role in their high mark due to his assists, but he has yet to threaten opposing goalies with his own shots on goal as he has failed to eclipse an Expected Goal of over 0.20. Until shown otherwise, continue to fade Makar in regard to his shots on goal prop as he plays a bigger role in facilitating.
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