The Dallas Stars entered game four as the universal betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup and now have been knocked down the oddsboard after a loss. Tied at 2-2, the pressure for the Stars to finish it out has exponentially grown heading into a crucial game five on their home ice. Luckily for them, their offense will always be in a position to round back into form against the Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner who has had a forgettable playoff performance. The Stars need to find answers in a pinch just to keep up as the Oilers offense has been a well oiled machine off the play of Zach Hyman.
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If you have managed to read our best bets article before this one, then you would know that Friday’s theme is centered around more offensive production. The Oilers have been the more consistent offensive unit in the Western Conference Finals, clocking in an Expected Goal of 3.00 or higher in every game of the series. As for the Stars, their offense stumbled in game four by finishing with an Expected Goal of 1.95.
While that normally means back the Oilers offense in the prop market as they have been the more consistent unit, the Stars goalie Jake Oettinger possesses enough talent to disrupt them as we saw earlier in the series. Oettinger came into the NHL Playoffs as one of the better goalies in the league, possessing a Save Percentage of .919 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.20.
That shifts my focus towards the Stars offense as they are in a position to round back into form against the Oilers Stuart Skinner. Before game four, the Stars offense generated an Expected Goal of 2.92 or higher and will consistently find themselves in favorable scoring position against one of the worst goalies in the league who possess a Save Percentage of .887. With the Stars excelling in 5-on-5 situations, as well as the Power Play, Skinner will find himself under constant duress for the full duration of the game.
Bet on Stuart Skinner at bet365
Arguably no one in the Western Conference Finals has been playing at a more consistent high level than Zach Hyman. Even with Connor McDavid on the team, Hyman has been the Oilers most consistent level of offensive production as he routinely sits near the top of the team in Expected Goals. Outside of game one of the series, Hyman has been in the top two in Expected Goals for games two, three, and four.
Clocking in an Expected Goal of 0.25, 0.41, 1.61, and 0.76, Hyman has been flirting with scoring nearly in every game while scoring in two of them. Hyman benefits from high quality positioning opportunities as the Stars shade their coverage towards McDavid, exploiting the gaps in coverage and rifling off a Shot on Goal. With the Stars defense having their hands tied cuffing the more dangerous offensive talent, continue to back Hyman to capitalize on his scoring opportunities by putting the puck in the back of the net.
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