Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Continue to Fade Stuart Skinner

With their backs pressed against the wall and on the brink of elimination, the Edmonton Oilers managed to extend the series with a dominant 8-1 win in game four of the Stanley Cup Finals. An uncharacteristically bad game from the Panthers star goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky who was eventually benched after the fifth goal scored, but well warranted for the Oilers offense who were flirting with positive regression after multiple high marks in Expected Goals. Expect another high scoring affair in game five, but on the opposite side of the ice this time around.

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Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers - Game 5 Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

Stuart Skinner Over 2.5 Goals Against (-150) at BetMGM

Correlating this prop with our NHL Best Bet piece, we go back to the well by fading Stuart Skinner as game five should feature another abundance of goals. This time a brunt of the scoring should come from the Panthers end as positive regression looms large over their offense after coming out flat in game four. Even when held to just one total goal scored, the Panthers still managed to finish the contest with an Expected Goal of 2.49.

A deflating performance, but one that the Panthers are more than capable of coming back from as they have more than proven that they are one of the best offensive units in the league. They finished the regular season top-2 in Expected Goals For with a mark of 3.68, and have managed to maintain that high level of production throughout the NHL Playoffs by possessing an Expected Goals For of 3.33.

Speaking of regression, Stuart Skinner finds himself on the opposite end of the spectrum as he played far better than his baseline level of play. Skinner has been a routine fade target for our NHL Props series, and for good reason as he has played as one of the worst goalies in the playoffs. Skinner has a knack for routinely allowing in low quality Shots on Goal, giving the Panthers ample scoring opportunities everytime they rifle one on net. Expect negative regression to swing back our way after finishing three of four contests with a negative mark in Goals Saved Above Expected.

Bet on Stuart Skinner at BetMGM

Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165) at BetMGM

Should the Panthers offense want to round back into form, then they will need to continue to maintain the same level of aggressiveness that we have seen throughout the NHL Playoffs. Especially with Skinner in net, knowing that any quality shot they generate has a chance of getting past him. To help maximize their scoring opportunities, expect another high amount of Shots on Goal like we saw in game four when they finished with 33.

Speaking of aggressiveness, Panthers forward Vladimir Tarasenko has played a major role with setting the tone on offense as he has found his name near the top of the board in Expected Goals in each game played so far this series. Tarasenko has finished with an Expected Goal of 0.33, 0.74, 0.42, and 0.40 off of at least two Shots on Goal in each game played. Not a fluke performance either as Tarasenko has benefited from open coverage, filling in the gaps on the opposite end while the Oilers defense shades towards the likes of Barkov, Tkachuk, and Verhaeghe. Expect Tarasenko to continue to thrive, clearing this total for a fifth game in a row.

Bet on Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 Shots on Goal at BetMGM

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