After fading the Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals, we go back to the well for game two. Even though the Panthers won 3-0, their offense actually underwhelmed and were severely outplayed over the full course of 60 minutes. With that said, it was equally as eye opening that they managed to score against Skinner who seemingly fell back down to reality after a hot stint against the Dallas Stars. As for the Oilers offense, Zach Hyman continues to generate high quality shots on goal and will be in a good position to find the back of the net in game two.
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It was a tale of two results when digging deeper into the Panthers offensive performance against Stuart Skinner. Even though they won 3-0 on the scoreboard, their offense actually underwhelmed by only generating an Expected Goal mark of 1.88. The Panthers two non-empty goals were off of low quality shot attempts, generating an Expected Goal of 0.11 and 0.10.
While a low Expected Goal result normally spells negative regression for the Panthers offense heading into game two, it actually further cements my belief that Skinner’s consistent low level of play will continue to keep the Panthers offense competitive in the scoring department. Of the 16 starting goalies entering the playoffs, Skinner ranked 14th in Save Percentage at .897 and 10th in Average Goals Against per Game at 2.47.
Better yet for this prop, positive regression also looms large over the Panthers offense as they underperformed in Expected Goals when compared to their playoff average. The Panthers 5-on-5 have been one of the best units during the course of the playoffs, yet struggled to string together consistent high quality shots on goal. An oddity against an Oilers defense who averages an Expected Goals Against of 2.45. Expect an uptick in pressure from the Panthers offense, increasing the chance of cashing this prop as Skinner consistently allows low quality goals to get past him.
Bet on Stuart Skinner at BetMGM
Another game has come and gone and Zach Hyman continues to find himself at the top of the board for the Oilers in Expected Goals. While they failed to score as a whole, the Oilers did a phenomenal job at creating scoring chances. Hyman led all other Oilers in Expected Goals, finishing the contest with an astonishing 1.02.
That has been the case for a majority of the playoffs as Hyman continues to be the focal point of the Oilers offense. Opposing defenses are forced to shade their coverage towards Connor McDavid, freeing up more space for the dangerous Hyman on the opposite side of the ice to rifle off a high quality shot on net. Back Hyman to find the back of the net in game two as he leads an offense that faced minimal resistance against the Panthers defense after an Expected Goal result of over 5.00 in game one.
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