With the Florida Panthers tying up the series in game four, it’s now a best of three series with the team who wins the next two games moving on to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Panthers came into the Conference Finals as one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup, yet the Rangers proved to be more tough than their listed odds projected by taking a quick 2-1 series lead. Since tying it back up, the Panthers are now near the top of the oddsboard and are looking to carry their momentum for a crucial game five win.
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With the Eastern Conference Finals knotted up at two games a piece, the Florida Panthers are now just two more wins away from moving on to the Stanley Cup Finals. Their latest win in game four comes off of another overtime thriller, winning the contest 3-2. While the final score made it appear that it was close, their actual level of play was far from it as the Panthers finished game four with an Expected Goal scoreboard of 3.56 to the Rangers 1.78.
That has been the common theme throughout the past few games, playing far above the Rangers in terms of quality of play yet finding themselves in tight contests. An argument can be made that the Panthers should actually be up 3-1 in the series as their 4-5 loss in game three actually resulted in an Expected Goal score of 3.81-1.69 in the Panthers favor.
We finally saw positive regression swing back towards the Panthers way in a game four win and now get the opportunity to bet on them again at favorable odds. Their 3-2 win on paper in game four did them little favor with creating separation in the odds market, as well as getting the benefit of them playing on the road which shades the number towards the Rangers way.
The Rangers over reliance on their power play leaves them void of consistent production, especially with their 5-on-5 being overpowered by the Panthers. The Rangers 5-on-5 play currently possesses an Expected Goal of 2.10 and an Expected Goals Against of 2.46. That is below average since the start of the NHL Playoffs and well below the Panthers who clock in an Expected Goal of 2.47 and Expected Goals Against of 2.34.
Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky will need to continue to play at a high level, walling off low quality Rangers shot attempts as we saw in game four. The Rangers offense had to earn their two goals, resulting in an Expected goal of 0.45 and 0.28. That is a major difference from what we saw in game three when Bobrovsky let in a head scratching amount of low quality Shots on Goal. Buy the Panthers moneyline at a discount as they have now started to routinely out play the New York Rangers by a wide margin.
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