It took over a full period of play for it to happen, but when the Dallas Stars woke up they generated three goals in four minutes and did not look back. After a 5-3 win in game three, the Stars now hold a 2-1 lead over the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals. The Oilers now have one last chance to tie the series before having to go back to Dallas for game five or else they will find themselves with their backs to the wall in a hostile environment. Expect the Oilers to continue to ramp up the pressure, doing their part for a potential high scoring affair.
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Once the Dallas Stars woke up in the second period, they looked every bit as a Stanley Cup favorite after scoring three goals in four minutes. The Stars elite depth was on full display, maintaining a consistent high level of play with each line deployed. Even after the Oilers top line set the tone early with a quick 2-0 lead, the Stars had no issue with chipping away at it before opening up the scoring to take back the lead.
While the Stars play from the start of the second period was impressive, the Oilers actually outplayed them as a whole by winning the Expected Goals 3.90-2.92. That spells heartbreak for the Oilers faithful, yet shades value towards the over in game four for us bettors. Especially with the vast difference in quality of goalie in net, needing the Oilers to do their part as scoring should come more consistent for the Stars.
The Oilers have shown to do just that, even in 5-on-5 situations where their offense tends to regress. That was a major question mark heading into the series as the Oilers over reliance on the power play would be called into question as penalties tend to be called at a lower rate in the playoffs. They quickly answered those questions by generating an Expected Goal of 0.10 or higher in two of their three goals in the 5-on-5.
As for the Stars, their offense should have no issue with scoring as Stuart Skinner continues to struggle in net. While I normally fade teams who scored a majority of their goals with an Expected Goal of 0.10 or less, doing it against Skinner is the lone exception. Skinner came into the playoffs as one of the worst goalies and has shown no signs of improvement as he possesses a Save Percentage of .885 and a Goals Against per Game average of 2.76.
Expect the Stars to continue to pepper Skinner with a high chance of putting one of their low quality shots on goal in the back of the net while the Oilers elevated offensive play on the other end finds success as well. The Oilers improved 5-on-5 play keeps them competitive for a majority of the contest, increasing the number of scoring opportunities. If you did not manage to grab a slightly juiced over of 5.5, a flat 6 at +100 or better is still worth a wager.
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