Best NHL Bets Today: Expect an Uptick in Goals

After edging out the Edmonton Oilers in Expected Goals in a game one overtime loss in the Western Conference Finals, the Dallas Stars bounced back and took game two of the series 3-1. The Stars continued to hold the Oilers potent offense while they turned their high quality shots on goal into pucks in the back of the net. The Stars now hit the road to battle it out in Edmonton in games three and four, making it crucial they at worst split the road series to remain in favorable position. Expect game three to feature more offense as both defenses regress.

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Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers - Game 3 (8:30 PM, EST)

Over 5.5 (-115) at FanDuel

Hockey can be a fickle sport as the smallest error can create a drastic shift, especially when you dive into the analytics post game. In game one, the Stanley Cup favorite Stars outplayed the Oilers for a majority of the contest in terms of Expected Goals, yet lost in overtime. The Stars then bounced back in game two and won the contest 3-1 on paper, but shockingly slightly lost in Expected Goals 3.16-3.31. 

One low quality goal being allowed in the back of the net can drastically swing momentum and the Stars exuded this early in game two. In fact, both non-empty net goals were as near low quality as it gets, clocking in an Expected Goal of 0.05 by Jamie Benn and 0.07 by Mason Marchment. Conner Brown from the Oilers generated a much higher quality shot opportunity as his goal resulted in a Expected Goal of 0.22.

While the Stars low quality shots normally screams negative regression, it’s tough to back either the Oilers or the under in game three. The Oilers have been outplayed for a majority of the series, lucking into a game one win and barely edging out the Stars in game two. There has been one common theme in this series so far and it is that both games have featured a high amount of Expected Goals that have yet to find more consistent success.

That indicates positive regression looms for both offenses, potentially seeing an uptick in goals as we dig deeper into the series. The Oilers field one of the best offenses in the league with their top line, being more than capable of continuing to apply pressure to the Stars defense. Oettinger may be one of the league’s better goalies, but even he is playing far above his head with a Goals Above Expected mark of 2.31 in game two.

The Oilers heavy hitters are certainly having no trouble generating high quality scoring chances as Ryan McLeod clocked in a Expected Goal of 0.4, Zach Hyman a 0.41, and Evander Kane an astonishing 1.18. Factor in Connor McDavid being a no show and most likely rounding back into form and the Oilers should manage to do their part in the scoring department. As for the Stars, success should always be imminent against the Oilers Stuart Skinner as he continues to underwhelm in net.

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