Game one of the Western Conference Finals kicks off Thursday when the Edmonton Oilers travel to Texas to battle it out against the Dallas Stars. The Oilers come off of an exhausting seven game series against the Vancouver Canucks, narrowly blowing a three goal lead late in the third period in game seven. As for the Stars, they come in well rested after taking care of business against the Boston Bruins in six games. On top of our best bet, be sure to check out our player props piece for this game for some additional excitement.
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Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good as was the case in game seven of the Oilers and Canucks series. One goal can drastically alter the trajectory of the game and the Oilers benefited from such when Cody Ceci found the back of the net at the start of the second period. It was as low quality as a shot could get, clocking in an Expected Goal mark of 0.01.
Speaking of Expected Goals, the Canucks actually won the game in that department as the contest ended with an Expected Goal score of 2.81-2.21 in the Canucks favor. Sadly for Vancouver, real time goals are the only ones that count and the Oilers move on after a 3-2 victory.
The Oilers certainly have the offensive talent to back up this run, but they now run into a tough defensive test against the Stanley Cup favorite Dallas Stars. The Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has been a stone wall in net since the start of the NHL Playoffs, possessing a Save Percentage of 0.918 and a Goals Against per Game Average of 2.09. This isn’t a backup goalie in net anymore, the Oilers now have a far higher quality opponent in net for them to try to get past.
Better yet for the Stars defensive chances of neutralizing the Oilers potent offense, Dallas ranked first overall in the regular season for Fewest Total Penalty Minutes. The Oilers Power Play is the best in the league by a country mile and now will see a decrease in their Power Play opportunities which minimizes their scoring opportunities as well.
Speaking of goalies, we may see an uptick in aggressiveness from the Dallas Stars offense as they get the opportunity to pepper the lowly Stuart Skinner in net. It’s been a playoff performance to forget for Skinner as he comes into game one with a Save Percentage of 0.881. He was already benched for a game in their series against Vancouver, and he comes in with little momentum as he lucked out with a unsustainable Save Over Expected Goals mark in game seven against the Canucks.
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