Just when everyone thought the Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars were going to punch their tickets to their respective Conference Finals, their offenses fell flat and failed to stay within scoring pace in a pair of losses. Both the Colorado Avalanche and Boston Bruins took advantage of their opponents sluggish play, extending their series and now have a chance to tie it on their home ice. Be sure to check out our Props Best Bets breakdown for Friday’s slate, bringing an added excitement to pair with our game best bets.
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While the Avs ability to elevate their level of play when their backs were up against the wall were impressive, it was actually a fluke result after digging deeper into their goals. Per MoneyPuck, the Avs Cale Makar back breaking third period goal resulted in an xGoals of just 0.02. With his goal, the Avs chances to win drastically rose to 92.7%, yet still finished the game losing in Expected Goals 3.37 to 3.76.
That spells potential positive regression for the Dallas Stars heading into game six, especially since they have continued to play as one of the best teams remaining in the NHL Playoffs on both ends of the ice. Multiple sportsbooks echo that sentiment, keeping the Stars as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.
Should the Stars want to end the series in game six, then stud goaltender Jake Oettinger will need to quickly round back into form after letting a few low quality goals in the back of the net. Oettinger ended the game with an Expected Goals Against with a 3.372, yet five actual goals went through. The Avs offense is lethal enough as is, making it more vital than ever to minimize their attack by walling off their low quality shooting opportunities.
As for the Stars offense, it should be business as usual as they continue to pressure the Avs goalie Alexandar Georgiev who has played as one of the worst goalies still remaining in the playoffs. He showed no signs of progression in their latest game, looking more of the same who already ranks near dead last in Save Percentage and Goals Against.
Bet on Dallas Stars ML (+100) at FanDuel
Before the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche get underway, we start our night targeting the total in the highly anticipated Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins game six matchup. Boston is looking to extract their revenge in a similar fashion of how the Panthers knocked them out of the playoffs last year, stringing together a three game win streak with a potential knockout win in game seven.
In order for Boston to continue this season, their defense will need to continue to play at a high rate in order to minimize the Panthers lethal offense. They did just that in game five, holding the Panthers Expected Goals to just 2.24. The Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman played at a consistent high rate, only seeing his Expected Goals Against drastically dip at the end of the second period.
His consistency in net is key as the Panthers offense have been dominant for a majority of the series. Should he manage to hold them off once again, then we can expect another low scoring affair as the Panthers Sergei Bobrovsky continues to run red hot as he has averaged just 1.5 Goals Against per Game in the past four contests against the Boston Bruins.
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