Best NHL Bets Today: Expect a High Scoring Game Seven

Game seven, the two best words in all of sports. Almost unfathomable that we are even in this situation after the Florida Panthers took a commanding 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, yet the Edmonton Oilers have managed to claw their way back after three straight dominant performances. The Oilers' offense have faced little resistance against a regressing Panthers defense, flexing their speed and creating high-quality scoring opportunities in transition. In a winner-takes-all game seven, expect the Panthers' offense to match the Oilers' intensity from the initial puck drop and provide us another high-scoring affair.

Find more betting picks for the Panthers vs Oilers game in our Best NHL Prop Bets Today.

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Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers - Game 7 (8:00 PM, EST)

Over 5.5 (+130) at FanDuel

With their backs against the wall, the Edmonton Oilers have managed to do the unthinkable and have stretched out this series to game seven. They are now one game away from making history, being the second team in the history of the league to complete a comeback down 0-3 in the Stanley Cup Finals. This would also mark the Oilers' first Stanley Cup since 1990, as well as Canada’s first since 1993.

Should they want to complete the comeback and hoist up Lord Stanely, then their offense will need to continue to create relentless pressure on the Panthers' defense as we have seen three games in a row now. The Oilers have outscored the Panthers in dominant fashion in three straight games, winning by a combined 18-5. They also led in Expected Goals in all three contests, further cementing their dominance as they continue to create high-quality scoring opportunities.

While positive regression did loom large over their offense after being shut out in game one while winning in Expected Goals, I'm not sure anyone expected this level of dominance as they skate circles around the Panthers' defense. The Panthers have backed their overall success on their low amount of Expected Goals Against in all situations at 2.79, limiting opposing offensive production in the middle of the ice with their physicality and neutralizing prolonged offensive attacks in their own zone.

That has yet to be the case in their past three contests as the Oilers have had no issue with blitzing through their walls and peppering Sergei Bobrovsky in net. Speaking of Bobrovsky, it’s been a nightmare past couple of games for the former Conn Smythe favorite. He comes off of a Goals Saved Above Expected mark of -1.71 in game six while allowing in two low-quality goals that clocked in an Expected Goal of 0.05 and 0.07.

With Bobrovsky continuing to regress, it will be up to the Panthers' offense to help mask his loss of production. Normally a strength for the team as they ranked top-5 in Expected Goals For in all situations over the course of the regular season and NHL Playoffs, but the Panthers have struggled to match the Oilers' intensity from the rip. Lazy passes, a lack of urgency, and quick offensive possessions have forced them to play behind on the scoreboard in their three losses.

In a winner-takes-all scenario, it’s tough to picture the Panthers coming out as sluggish as we have seen the past few contests. They can ill-afford to play behind as a quicker pace of play favors the Oilers, meaning they will need to go back to their roots and keep the puck in the offensive zone, and relentlessly attack the lowly Stuart Skinner in net. While Skinner has steadily improved throughout the series, negative regression looms large as his three straight negative Goals Saved Above Expected performances to start the Stanley Cup Finals closer resemble his level of play throughout the duration of the NHL Playoffs.

Bet on Over 5.5 (+130) at FanDuel