Best NHL Bets Today: Continue to Back Both Offenses

After a dominant performance in game four of the Stanley Cup Finals, it looked like the Edmonton Oilers were going to run away with game five after getting out to a 3-0 lead. It wasn’t until then that the Panthers offense finally woke up, relentlessly attacking the Oilers in their best efforts to tie it back up. Unfortunately for Florida, it was too little too late as they failed in their efforts to complete the comeback and lost game five 3-5. That now swings momentum back towards the Oilers way who host game six on their home ice.

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Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers - Game 6 (8:00 PM, EST)

Over 5.5 (-104) at FanDuel

Positive regression continues to swing in the Oilers favor as their offense is finally rewarded with their high quality scoring opportunities. Formally getting walled off against Sergei Bobrovsky in the first three contests, the Oilers offense have finally cracked the code and have made Bobrovsky look mortal in net. They have now won the past two contests to a combined score of 13-4 with a chance to tie the series on their home ice.

Should the Oilers want to extend the series to a game seven, then their offense will need to continue to set a scoring pace too fast for the Panthers to keep up with. That has been their bread and butter in the past two games, getting out to an early lead and forcing the Panthers to play at their tempo. With Florida having to dial up the intensity, that opens up higher quality shooting lanes in transition for the Oilers offense to exploit.

Not only has the faster pace of play worked in their favor in the actual goals scored department, but in Expected Goals as well. They finished game five with an Expected Goal of 3.80, slightly edging out the Panthers who finished with a 3.21. That now marks three games that the Oilers have won in Expected Goals, winning two of three after getting walled off in a Sergei Bobrovsky game one masterpiece.

Speaking of former Conn Smythe favorite Sergei Bobrovsky, he has quickly fallen back down to reality after a hot start to the series. After getting benched in game four, Bobrovsky looked just as lost in game five as he struggled to make the right read against the revamped Oilers offense. Hardly to any fault of his own as the Oilers have done a much better job at generating higher quality Shots on Goal, clocking in an Expected Goal of 0.26, 0.72, and 0.81 in three of their four non-empty net goals.

With Bobrovsky only being able to do so much against a hyper efficient Oilers attack, it will be up to the Panthers offense to help mask his loss of production. We saw how they looked once they finally woke up, sending a relentless assault towards the net for a majority of the second period. They looked every bit of an offense that ranked top-2 in Expected Goals For in all situations, as well as top-5 during the course of the NHL Playoffs.

Scoring opportunities will constantly be presented to them as the Oilers Stuart Skinner continues to let in low quality Shots on Goal. Two of the three goals scored on him in game five resulted in an Expected Goal of 0.13 and 0.11. It’s not as if he played that much above his head either, finishing the contest with a Goals Saved Above Expected mark of 0.21. Reminder, this is someone who has been a regular fade target for us after finishing the first three contests well into the negative in Goals Saved Above Expected. Expect negative regression to bring him back down, opening more scoring opportunities for the Panthers offense.

Bet on Over 5.5 (-104) at FanDuel

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