The Toronto Maple Leafs are the new betting favorites for the Atlantic division title
Toronto, Montreal, and Boston are in a three-way tie for first in the division standings
Florida’s defense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations
After entering the year listed as the betting favorite to win the Atlantic division, let alone as a contender for their second straight Stanley Cup, the Florida Panthers have yet to look the part by losing two of their first three games of the season. The defense has been a major issue for the reigning Stanley Cup champions as the Panthers' back line currently ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.
As for the Toronto Maple Leafs, they have arguably looked like one of the best teams in the division by ranking above league average on both sides of the ice in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Entering week two of the season, oddsmakers are buying the hype around Toronto by listing them as the new betting favorite to win the Atlantic division title in some sportsbooks.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to head to FanDuel Sportsbook and place your bets: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.
With the Panthers potentially getting off to a slow start while reconfiguring their lineup, this opens the door for someone else to build up a lead in the division standings.
After entering the year with question marks looming over their defense, the Florida Panthers have not given their fans any assurance three games into the season as they rank near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Red flags were raised after losing star defenseman Brandon Montour to the Seattle Kraken in the offseason, forcing the Panthers to reconfigure their lineup to help mask the loss of his production.
Fortunately for Florida, their offense has been able to play at a competitive level as they rank above league average in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play. Still, a high level of offensive production is not enough to make another run at the Stanley Cup, desperately needing help from their defense to limit the amount of variance. Until their defense can round back into championship-level form, pass on the Panthers' current odds to win the division title.
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Even though the Tampa Bay Lightning have only played one game so far this season, they may have already answered the question of how they will fare without their longtime captain Steven Stamkos. With Jake Guentzel replacing Stamkos, the Lightning have been able to sustain their high level of offensive production as Tampa Bay currently ranks fourth overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
The issue for Tampa is that their defense flirted with disaster in their opener against the Carolina Hurricanes, finishing the contest with an Expected Goal Against mark of 3.52. While they did manage to hold the Hurricanes to just one total goal, that rate is unsustainable if they keep allowing opposing offenses to fire high-quality shots on goal at their net. Granted it is just a one-game sample size, making the Lightning a pass on their current odds to win the division until we get more data points to properly analyze this team.
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After splitting up their star duo at goalie by trading away Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators, Vezina Trophy contender Jeremy Swayman was expected to slot into the full-time starting role due to his high level of play. In two appearances so far this season, Swayman has yet to recapture last year’s success as he is currently averaging 4.00 Goals Against per Game while generating a Save Percentage of .914.
To make matters worse for Swayman, his back line has yet to give him the support he needs as the Bruins defense ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Without proper coverage, Swayman will consistently be asked to wall off high-quality shots on goal which will lead to high-variance contests. The Bruins offense has also yet to round back into form, ranking below league average in Expected Goals For. With negative regression looming large, pass on the Bruins current odds to win the Atlantic division title.
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After being shut out by the Montreal Canadiens in their season opener, the Toronto Maple Leafs have swiftly rounded back into form by winning their next two contests against the New Jersey Devils and Pittsburgh Penguins by a combined score of 8-4. Their win against New Jersey was especially impressive as the Devils are listed as one of the top contenders on the oddsboard for the Stanley Cup.
The Maple Leafs metrics also back up their early season success as Toronto is one of the few teams in the league who currently rank above league average in both Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their ability to field a well-rounded unit puts them above the rest of the division contenders as each team is dealing with a glaring weakness on either side of the ice, making the Toronto Maple Leafs worth a wager to win the Atlantic division title at their current listed odds.
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The Florida Panthers won the Atlantic division title in 2023-2024, claiming their third title since making their return to the division in 2013.
Seemingly a revolving door for teams to make brief appearances before moving on to somewhere else, the Atlantic division has seen plenty of different teams claim the division title over the years. The New Jersey Devils currently hold the record for the most Atlantic division titles, winning the division nine times before departing for the Metropolitan division. The Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers are currently tied for first for teams still active in the Atlantic, winning the division three times apiece.
Season | Team |
---|---|
2023-2024 | Florida Panthers |
2022-2023 | Boston Bruins |
2021-2022 | Florida Panthers |
2020-2021 | Division Suspended - Realignment |
2019-2020 | Boston Bruins |
When looking to make a wager on the Atlantic futures market, it’s important to create an account with as many NHL betting sites as you can. This allows you to line shop the market as odds can vary between each book. When betting on the Maple Leafs to win the Atlantic, their odds can be found as high as +240 at FanDuel and as low as +225 at Caesars. That is a difference of $15 in profit for a $100 bettor.
Another perk of creating an account with multiple sportsbooks is that you can collect their new user signup bonuses to help boost your bankroll. Caesars Sportsbook for example is giving new users up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should they lose their first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.
BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel | |
---|---|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs Atlantic Division Winner Odds | +230 | +225 | +240 |
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Before making any type of wager, it’s important to know how the listed odds work. Should you want to bet the Maple Leafs to win the division at their current odds of +240, then a $100 wager would profit you $240 should they win the Atlantic. Should you wait to see if they get off to a lead in the division standings and are listed with a minus sign in front of their odds (ex: -130), then you would need to wager $130 to profit $100.
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