NFL Win Totals Over/Under Predictions: The Chiefs (Barely) Remain Undefeated

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-0 after 10 weeks

• The Detroit Lions have the second-best record in the NFL at 8-1

• The Chiefs' projected win total is 14.5, and six teams are tied with a win total of 4.5

The 2024 NFL season is now through the first 10 weeks.

Through 10 weeks, the Chiefs remain the only undefeated squad at 9-0, beating the Denver Broncos after blocking a field goal. 

The second-best team win-loss-wise is the Detroit Lions. They looked like they were headed for their second loss but came back and beat the Houston Texans. 

Through 10 weeks, only one team has a point differential north of +100. There’s also only one team with a turnover differential of +10 or better. 

With so much going on around the league regarding wins and losses, I’ll examine the latest win total odds for each team, the top favorite per their win total line, and more.

2024 NFL Win Totals Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

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Highest Projected NFL Win Totals

Before you begin wagering on win totals, let’s examine some top teams per the above odds.

Kansas City Chiefs - 14.5 Wins (Over -168; Under +136 at FanDuel)

The Chiefs have bent, but they haven’t broken. They continuously find ways to win. On Monday Night Football in Week 9, they beat Tampa Bay in overtime, and last week, they beat Denver 16-14 after blocking their potential game-winning 30-yard field goal.

If it wasn’t blocked, Denver would’ve beaten them.

Alas, they’re 9-0 heading into Week 11.

After nine games, they have a turnover differential of -4, which has been helped by quarterback Patrick Mahomes's lack of interceptions over the last two games.

As for the point differential, they’re +58, which is ninth in the NFL. They even trail the Los Angeles Chargers, who are in their division and have a 6-3 record.

The Chiefs face a tough challenge as road underdogs in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, but again, it’s hard to rule them out.

After that, they have games against the Chargers, Steelers, and Texans and a rematch with the Broncos at Mile High.

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Detroit Lions - 13.5 Wins (Over -122; Under +100 at FanDuel)

The Lions have one loss, but they somehow managed to win on the road against the Texans in Week 10.

They were getting pummeled at halftime, 23-7.

Quarterback Jared Goff threw five interceptions (one was on a Hail Mary).

Still, they beat Houston 26-23, scoring 19 unanswered points in the second half. The Texans were unable to score a single point.

Goff had by far his worst game of the season, completing 50% of his passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns, and those five picks.

For context, he was completing well over 70% of his passes this season.

The Lions managed to sack Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud four times and picked him off twice.

The game came down to two field goals from Lions kicker Jake Bates.

With 5:01 to go, he hit a 58-yarder, and as time expired, he hit a game-winning 52-yarder.

The Lions lead the league in point differential at +113. No other team has a point differential of +100 or higher.

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Buffalo Bills - 12.5 Wins (Over +104; Under -128 at FanDuel)

Sitting atop the turnover margin are the Bills at +13 through 10 games. The next closest teams are the Chargers and Steelers at +9.

As mentioned, they head into Week 11 hosting the Chiefs.

In Week 10, they beat the Colts on the road 30-20, picking off quarterback Joe Flacco three times.

The Bills scored 30 points, but quarterback Josh Allen threw two interceptions. He somewhat made up for it with a rushing touchdown.

In Week 9, they beat the Dolphins at home 30-27 on a last-second field goal.

Overall, the past two games have been a bit rocky. Yes, they’re both wins, but these are far from perfect games.

Despite that, they’re +97 in point differential and second in the NFL.

We’ll see how they do against the Chiefs this week.

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Philadelphia Eagles - 12.5 Wins (Over +112; Under -134 at FanDuel)

The battle for first place in the NFC East occurs in Week 11 as the Eagles host the Commanders. The Eagles are +72 in point differential. Just ahead of them? The Commanders at +73.

The Eagles are only +1 in turnover differential, but they’re red-hot right now, going 6-1 since starting 0-2 and have won five straight.

In Week 9, they held off the Jaguars, beating them 28-23. They allowed 16 points in the third quarter but held a comfortable lead heading into the fourth quarter.

In Week 10, they stomped the Cowboys 34-6. They held Cooper Rush and Trey Lance to under 100 yards passing.

A big part of their success has been, of course, quarterback Jalen Hurts. He has 10 rushing touchdowns this season, which is second in the NFL.

Additionally, running back Saquon Barkley is second in the NFL in rushing with 991 yards, averaging over 110 yards per game.

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Lowest Projected NFL Win Totals

Carolina Panthers - 4.5 Wins (Over -142; Under +116 at FanDuel)

The Panthers are 3-7 after winning two straight games. They beat the Saints and Giants, two teams that I’d hardly consider top contenders in the NFL. 

Still, it’s got to be a bit of a confidence boost for quarterback Bryce Young. 

In those two games, he’s combined for two touchdown passes and one interception. Still, he didn’t throw for more than 180 yards in either. 

This team heavily relies on the ground game from running back Chuba Hubbard, who has had three touchdowns over the last two games. 

Now, they head into a bye week for Week 11 before hosting the Chiefs. 

Yikes. 

They round out the season against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Falcons. 

I’d lean under here. The only team I could see them taking down is the Cowboys without quarterback Dak Prescott. 

They’re a league-worst -143 in point differential.

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Tennessee Titans - 4.5 Wins (Over -112; Under -108 at FanDuel)

The Titans are -83 in point differential and -11 in turnover differential; both are second-worst in the NFL. 

There have been some quarterback injuries, with Mason Rudolph starting a couple of games, but the Titans only wins this season have come against a Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins squad and the Patriots. 

In Week 10, they lost on the road to the Chargers, 27-17. Quarterback Will Levis did throw two touchdowns, but the ground game was utterly inefficient. 

The key in that game was the Titans allowed seven sacks and had nine penalties for 68 yards. 

They’ll be competing for the No. 1 overall pick, though they do have two games against the Jaguars on their schedule. It looks like their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, could miss the rest of the season. 

Still, to get over 4.5, they need to win three games, which is looking tough unless they beat the Jaguars twice and the Colts once.

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New England Patriots - 4.5 Wins (Over -176; Under +142 at FanDuel)

The Patriots are 3-7 after beating the Bears in Week 10 and have gone 2-1 over the last three games. This includes a game that took the Titans to overtime, which they ultimately lost. 

The Patriots had nine sacks in Week 10 against the Bears, holding them to just three points. 

For the Patriots, this season is really just to get some reps under quarterback Drake Maye’s belt and prepare him for 2025 and beyond. 

They’re -60 in point differential and -4 in turnover differential. 

Looking at the rest of their schedule—Rams, Dolphins, Colts, Cardinals, Chargers, and Bills (twice)—the Colts are a game they could snag a win, but other than that, it’s hard to find two wins. 

They’re slated to finish with the No. 6 overall pick, but given their schedule, they’ll finish inside the top five.

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Cleveland Browns - 4.5 Wins (Over +102; Under -124 at FanDuel)

The Browns had a bye week in Week 10. In Week 9, they were atrocious against the Chargers, including quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw three interceptions. 

The Chargers have a stout defense, but this was quite a difference from his performance against the Ravens, which resulted in over 330 passing yards and three touchdowns. 

They’re -65 in point differential and -7 in turnover differential. 

The Browns have eight games left on the schedule, including games against the Saints, Steelers (twice), Broncos, Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens. 

The Browns are 2-7 this season, and if I had to pick games they could possibly win, the list would only include the Saints and Broncos. 

The Browns ground game does have Nick Chubb back, but he’s had 42 carries this season for just 113 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. He’s coming back from a gruesome injury. 

It’ll be intriguing to see how Winston finishes this season.

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Las Vegas Raiders - 4.5 Wins (Over -152; Under +124 at FanDuel)

The Raiders might be the most brutal team to watch this season. After a Week 9 loss to the Bengals on the road 41-24, they fired virtually everyone on the offensive coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello.

This came before their Week 10 bye week. Now, in Week 11, they take on the Dolphins. 

The Raiders are currently 2-7 and have lost five straight games. 

They’re last in turnover differential at -14 and -83 in the point differential. 

Looking at their schedule, they need three wins to get over this line. 

The two games I immediately notice as possible wins are the Jaguars and Saints, but that’s far from definite. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if they finish with these two wins and draft No. 1 or No. 2 overall. 

This team is a trainwreck without any competent quarterback play.

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New York Giants - 4.5 Wins (Over +104; Under -128 at FanDuel)

The Giants dropped to 2-8 after losing to Carolina in Germany. They have lost five straight, and two of their wins came against the Browns and Seahawks. 

The game against the Seahawks was by far their best performance this season. 

In Week 10, quarterback Daniel Jones was atrocious. He completed 22 of 37 passes (59.5%) for 190 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. He did have a rushing touchdown, but watching the game, he couldn’t process the field. 

The Giants have some talent on offense, including wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., but Jones simply isn’t the guy.

I think the coaching staff is likely on the outs, too. 

The Giants need three wins to reach five. They have games against the Cowboys, Saints, and Colts on the schedule. 

I think they could beat a Prescott-less Cowboys squad. They could possibly beat the Saints. 

I’m not sure about the Colts. 

I’d bet the under here. They need a top draft pick to add talent to this roster.

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Who Will Lead the 2024 NFL Season in Wins

My Pick - Kansas City Chiefs (Over 14.5 Wins -168 at FanDuel)

The Chiefs are a perfect 9-0 and need six wins to get over this mark.

The Bills, their Week 11 opponent, could be a tough task.

After that, they face the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos.

They’ll beat the Panthers, Raiders, and Browns.

The Chargers have a great defense, but I’m not sure they have enough offense to beat them, even in a close game.

With two games left, I’d pick those to come against the Broncos and the Texans. The only caveat with the Texans would be if Collins remains out.

Now, if they beat the Bills this week, that makes it that much easier.

This team continues to find ways to win. I can see the point of view of “this is eventually going to come to a halt,” but I’m not so sure.

This feels a lot like the 2000s Patriots teams that managed to get that interception at the end of the game or a last-second field goal.

Take the over. They’ll get 15 or 16 wins.

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Who Led the League in Wins in 2023?

The Baltimore Ravens went 13-4 in 2023 and led the league in wins. They were one of 11 teams with double-digit wins. They lost in the AFC Championship to the 11-6 Chiefs. 

Highest NFL Single-Season Win Total History

Below, we’ll look at each team that led the NFL in wins from the modern Super Bowl era, which began in 1967. 

It’s important to remember that the number of games per team per season has changed over the years:

• 1967-1977: 14 games

• 1978-1981: 16 games

• 1982: Nine games (strike)

• 1983-1986: 16 games

• 1987: 15 games (strike)

• 1988-1989: 16 games, no bye week

• 1990-1992: 16 games, one bye week

• 1993: 16 games, two bye weeks

• 1994-2000: 16 games, one bye week

• 2001: 16 games, two bye weeks (September 11 attack)

• 2002-2020: 16 games, one bye week

• 2021-Present: 17 games, one bye week

With that understood, let’s look at the single-season win leaders since 1967. 

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Win Totals Odds

Before you dive into wagering on NFL win totals, we at WSN strongly encourage you to find the best sportsbook for this. When examining the odds, I’d recommend deciding what you want to wager on and letting that guide you to the wager with the most upside. I highly recommend odds shopping if you’re in a state with multiple online sportsbooks.

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How to Read NFL Win Totals Odds

When looking at NFL win totals, you’ll wager by looking at the win total line and deciding whether you think the team will exceed or fall short of that. You’ll often see “+” and “-” odds with this. 

Here’s how you can examine these, using $100 as a frame of reference. 

• If you bet on something with “-” odds, you must wager that amount to win $100. If a team is -134, you must wager $134 to win $100. 

• If you bet on something with “+” odds, you’ll win that amount with a $100 wager. If a team is +134, you’ll win $134 with a successful $100 wager.