NFL Wild Card Picks Against the Spread: Eagles, Rams Top Our Best Bets for the NFL Playoffs

• The Broncos, Lions, and Chargers tied for a league-best 12-5 ATS

• The Texans were the worst playoff team ATS at 7-8-2

• Four of six Wild Card matchups are rematches from the regular season

The NFL playoffs have finally arrived, turning the page on the 2024 regular season to the single-elimination race for the Super Bowl trophy.

This week’s Wild Card round features four rematches from the regular season, including a pair of Week 1 matchups between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

The Minnesota Vikings are also out to avenge an earlier loss to the Los Angeles Rams, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are set for a rivalry rubber match.

Football fans everywhere waited months, so let’s not drag this out any longer. Here are our best bets against the spread for the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs.

NFL Wild Card Playoffs Predictions and Odds

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Chargers vs. Texans - Jan. 11, 4:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Chargers -3 (-105), Texans +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Chargers -160, Texans +135

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

The Chargers enter the playoffs riding a three-game win streak and after allowing the fewest points per game (17.7). They have several areas that could be improved, namely at their skill positions, but got the most out of their offense and situational attentiveness while playing an efficient brand of football (third in turnover margin per game - +0.7).

Jim Harbaugh is fresh off a national championship at the University of Michigan and has appeared in a Super Bowl before. Needless to say, the postseason won’t be too scary of an environment for him. His main priority will be helping Justin Herbert (23 touchdowns, three interceptions) to achieve his first playoff win.

The Texans stumbled into the postseason battered and bruised, having lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injured reserve and failing to beat a team with a winning record since they took down the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. C.J. Stroud also threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions over his final eight games, during which the team went 4-4.

The Texans’ defense was outstanding against the pass, ranking first in completion percentage allowed, second in yards allowed per attempt, and fourth in sack percentage. They were also 11th in yards allowed per rush attempt, though they gave up 27.9 average points in their losses.

The C.J. Stroud of a year ago would give the Texans a much better chance in this matchup, but the way he played lately doesn’t inspire much confidence. The Chargers are short of playmakers and don’t have a great running game, but Harbaugh is comfortable in these moments and should have a solid game plan prepared.

Chargers vs. Texans pick: Chargers -3 (-105) at BetMGM

Steelers vs. Ravens - Jan. 11, 8:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Steelers +10 (-115), Ravens -10 (-105)

• Moneyline: Steelers +425, Ravens -600

• Total: Over/under 43 (-120/-110)

The Steelers’ trend of going slightly over .500 continued as they finished 10-7 for the second straight year. While the transition to Russell Wilson at quarterback initially yielded positive returns, that came to a screeching halt when they lost their final four games of the regular season, the last of which was at the hands of another AFC opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Russ averaged 174.5 yards and had four touchdowns to two interceptions during the team’s recent losing streak. The running game also struggled and is only 25th in yards per attempt (4.1). This team is highly reliant on a defense that ranked eighth in points allowed per game (20.4) and finished second in average turnover differential (+0.9) to deliver it to victory, particularly with the histrionics exhibited by George Pickens recently.  

At their best, the Ravens can wield the wrath of the most dominant forces in the NFL. Those forces are Lamar Jackson, who just had one of the best seasons in the history of professional football, and Derrick Henry, who narrowly missed out on the second 2,000-yard rushing season of his career. Baltimore’s secondary also showed improvement in the second half of the year and is formidable behind a stellar run-stopping front.

The problem is that Baltimore is not always at its best. It suffered unexpected losses to the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders earlier in the year and is in prime position for a let-down after four straight blowout victories. Jackson has also been terrible in the playoffs, not just by his standards, but by any decent player’s.

Baltimore is as dangerous of a team as there is, but it cannot be counted on to play at its maximum every week. The Steelers are still well-coached and should keep this within two scores against a division rival they already saw twice. 

Steelers vs. Ravens pick: Steelers +10 (-115) at BetMGM

Broncos vs. Bills - Jan. 12, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Broncos +9 (-110), Bills -9 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos +350, Bills -450

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

The Broncos left no doubts that they were playoff-bound as they walloped the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups 38-0 in Week 18 to book their ticket into the postseason with a 10-7 record. Rookie QB Bo Nix has had his peaks and valleys and can make plays, but he can also go missing or throw a couple of turnovers in quick succession, and the running game was only 21st in yards per rush attempt.

Denver’s best moments largely came on defense. They allowed the third-fewest points per game (18.3) and led the league in EPA per play thanks to a strong pass-rush and the potential Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II, locking down the secondary. Excluding the Chiefs game, since they played their backups, the Broncos only beat one team with a winning record, and that was in the third week of the season.

Buffalo cannot afford to lose this game. This was arguably their most seamless regular season in the Josh Allen era, and they already beat the Lions, Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers. Allen also played the best football of his career, largely by cutting down on his turnovers, and leads NFL MVP odds entering the postseason.

Buffalo won games in a variety of styles and did not lose at home all year. They get to welcome a rookie quarterback into their building in freezing temperatures with a defense that hovered around the top 10 in most major metrics, and anything less than a convincing win would be concerning looking at their upcoming matchups.

The Broncos were outstanding against the spread over the course of the season, but this is a good opportunity to fade them. The last time Nix entered a stage he had no familiarity with in his NFL debut, he only had 138 yards and two interceptions. Buffalo is not only harsh in environment, but it will be an impossible place to go throw-for-throw with the other quarterback, who has never been better than he currently is.

Broncos vs. Bills pick: Bills -9 (-110) at BetMGM

Packers vs. Eagles - Jan. 12, 4:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Packers +4.5 (-110), Eagles -4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers +195, Eagles -250

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

An elbow injury to Jordan Love has cast a lot of doubt over a Packers team that has been incredibly solid for the year as a whole. Five of their six losses came by five or fewer points, and the only non-divisional opponent they fell to was this same Eagles team in Week 1 of the regular season in Brazil.

The Packers are at their most effective when they can fully unleash their complex running game. Jordan Love has tons of arm talent but has had to be reeled in recently, but to his credit, he did not throw an interception in seven straight games. The big question here is if the Green Bay run defense, which was eighth in EPA per run play, will be able to corral Saquon Barkley.

Jalen Hurts returned to practice on Wednesday for the first time since he suffered a concussion against the Washington Commanders two weeks ago. While it will be an enormous boost to have him back at his best, there’s no guarantee he will get there in just a few days of practice after two weeks off.

Luckily for the birds, they don’t need Hurts to be at their best to still be dominant elsewhere. Their defense allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.8), and Barkley became just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a single season. They also won their final two games against divisional opponents without having Hurts on the field.

Green Bay is used to playing in the cold and won’t be bothered by the bitter conditions of the northeast. The Packers either won or barely lost in all of their matchups, but there have been some concerns about their ability to play from behind, and the injury to Love is an issue. This game could still be close, but we’d lean toward the Eagles.

Packers vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Commanders vs. Buccaneers - Jan. 12, 8:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3 (-105), Buccaneers -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Commanders +150, Buccaneers -185

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

Jayden Daniels probably just played arguably the best rookie quarterback season in NFL history, one that saw him produce better stats than Lamar Jackson in his NFL MVP season a year ago and transform the 4-13 Commanders into a 12-5 team that enters the postseason on a five-game winning streak. Daniels looked gunshy in his NFL debut against the Bucs but is now a man reborn, ranking second in QBR against blitzing defenses.

The Washington defense has a few solid numbers, but the eye test will show that they really struggle to get stops through the air and on the ground. They are heavily reliant on the returning Marshon Lattimore to lock down one side of the field, and even then, they need 5-foot-8 rookie slot corner Mike Sainristil to take away the next receiver. They also paid more for their defensive tackles than any team in the league, yet they got below-average pass-rush production.

Baker Mayfield deserves a 30-for-30 on his career and his continued triumphs over adversity. Thanks to a refurbished running game and breakout rookie Bucky Irving forcing defenses to play them honestly, Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, though he tied for the league-lead with 16 interceptions.

Todd Bowles loves to bring the heat against opposing quarterbacks, and there’s no doubt that he will stick to doing that against a rookie making his playoff debut—that said, the Tampa corners play soft coverage and tend to keep players in front of them since they often use so many players in blitz packages. The defense’s biggest strength will be its in run stopping, anchored by Vita Vea against banged-up center Tyler Biadasz. 

Daniels already threw three touchdown passes on the final play of regulation, and Marcus Mariota added another in Washington’s win over the Dallas Cowboys last weekend. They have started several games slowly as of late and can’t afford to do that against a fiery Bucs squad that has been clicking through the air and on the ground. This should also be a close game, but we’d take the Bucs.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -3 (-115) at BetMGM

Vikings vs. Rams - Jan. 13, 8:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-110), Rams +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings -125, Rams +105

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

Be terrified, Vikings fans. The team only had three losses all year—two against the Lions and one against the Rams. The problem is that the Rams' loss came in LA the week after they played the Lions, whom they just played and lost to last week before boarding a flight to LA…

Sam Darnold had an unexpectedly incredible season and delivered his team in many moments of need, but there is still the underlying concern that he is a product of his environment. Those fears were somewhat confirmed last week in his first playoff-like matchup, during which he missed numerous throws and only went 18/41 for 166 yards. 

Minnesota’s defense can wreak havoc on any offense and allowed 19.5 points per game, the fifth-fewest in the league. They also helped the team finish third in average turnover differential (+0.7), though they gave up 30 points and four passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford when they squared off in Week 8.

Puka Nacua has entered the conversation for one of the five best receivers in the league and has a proven playoff performer in Stafford slinging him the ball. LA’s defense also got significantly better in the second half of the season, which is part of why they were able to win nine of 11 games before resting starters in Week 18.

The Vikings had an incredible season and would normally get the coaching advantage in any matchup, but Sean McVay knows Kevin O’Connell well and is also a genius in his own right. LA is at home and on a roll, and the Vikings, particularly Darnold, may have lost confidence based on their last performance.

Vikings vs. Rams pick: Rams +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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