The Colts are 7-1 ATS and will start Joe Flacco at QB against the Vikings
Numerous teams are road favorites in divisional matchups
The scriptwriters for the NFL are working overtime to come up with all of the twists and turns the 2024 season has already produced.
Jayden Daniels’ hail mary was the cherry on top of a thrilling weekend of football, while the Arizona Cardinals won on a last-second field goal, the Cleveland Browns took down the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions continued their regular-season rampage.
Coming off of an excellent week of predictions, here are our best bets against the spread for NFL Week 9.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
We promised a strong week last week, and we delivered. We’re on a streak of positive weeks after a slow start to the season and are getting a real beat on the lay of the NFL land.
Let’s charge back into the green with more winners in Week 9.
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C.J. Stroud hasn’t taken a leap since his excellent rookie year, but he’s mostly playing at a high level. Joe Mixon also produced another 100-yard game in last week’s 23-20 win against the Colts, while the defense allowed the worst completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-fewest yards per play to opposing teams.
Everything in New York is an abject failure. Aaron Rodgers is not a game-changer, the defense cannot produce timely stops, Davante Adams has not made a huge impact on the offense, and the coaching staff continually makes in-game gaffes. The Jets are just 2-6 against the spread and have lost five straight games as they barrel toward a missed playoff spot.
Road teams on short weeks typically find them in unforgiving positions, but the Jets are just 1-4 ATS with equal rest to their opponents. Aaron Rodgers routinely misses game-winning plays and is 22nd in QBR, while the Houston defense (eighth) outranks the Jets’ (14th) in EPA per play. We’re ready for a road win here.
America’s team most closely represents the country in the shape it was in during 1929. The offense is totally reliant on big plays from CeeDee Lamb, while Dak Prescott has more interceptions (eight) than games played. There is no team worse at running or stopping the run based on EPA per play, and they don’t have their usual pass-rush due to injuries suffered by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
The Falcons can beat the Buccaneers, that much is clear. They won four of their last five games and have now scored at least 31 points in three of their last four as Kirk Cousins is showing no ill effects from his Torn Achilles. The defense continually gives up too many points but has made important plays in big moments.
The Cowboys are playing for their playoff lives just halfway through the season due to the early success of the Commanders and the Eagles. The Falcons are not only in a much more comfortable position, but they have more of a proof of concept in place. Atlanta needs to establish the run early, but if they can, they have a great chance at covering this line.
Can someone get a pulse check on the Raiders? They lost five of their last six games, don’t have a quarterback they trust to throw the ball, and just ran 21 times for 33 yards. They actually played the Chiefs fairly close in a 27-20 loss, but they lack explosiveness and are at risk of losing the interest of Maxx Crosby. Without Gardner Minshew having a great day, they don’t offer any real threat on either side.
Cincinnati has not put one complete performance together this season, and they now probably need to win seven of their next 10 games to make the playoffs. Joe Burrow is playing like a top-five quarterback (which he is), but he didn’t have Tee Higgins last week, the running game is uninspiring, and the defense has only been a positive for two games in the entire season.
Cincinnati is markedly better than the Raiders on paper, but they haven’t produced on the field. Meanwhile, Minshew played a clean game and threw for two touchdowns against the Chiefs’ vaunted defense last week. We expect this to be ugly and full of gaffes, but we like the Raiders catching the hook at +7.5.
Justin Herbert has put together some of the most impressive quarterback film in the league over the last few weeks, during which the Chargers went 2-1 and moved into a playoff spot. They only scored more than 15 points twice in their last five games, but the defense ranks second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. They could do with J.K. Dobbins recapturing his early-season form and need to add receivers in the offseason.
Cleveland played its best game of the season in a 29-24 win over the Ravens last week. Jameis Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, outperforming Deshaun Watson’s best start as a Brown in his first start with the team. Nick Chubb hasn’t made a huge impact but can also unlock a new dimension in the offense if he becomes an elite back like he was before his injury.
The spread reflects how close this game should be. The knee-jerk reaction would be to take the Chargers, but the Browns’ defense looked reinvigorated by Winston, while the offense cracked 20 points for the first time all season. We expect a Winston turnover or two but still like them to find enough points to pull off the upset.
The battle of the basement is here! Drake Maye’s status is unknown at the time of writing and following his head injury against the Jets, though the Patriots still found a way to win with Jacoby Brissett under center. They traded Josh Uche to the Chiefs and are clearly focused on the future, which makes sense for a team that ranks 30th in average scoring margin.
…And as you probably expected, the Titans are 31st in scoring margin. Mason Rudolph threw for a touchdown, two interceptions, and ran for a touchdown in his second start, while the stout defense gave up a staggering 52 points to the Detroit Lions. Tennessee is now 1-6 against the spread, which is somehow worse than New England’s 2-5-1.
This is a prime let-down spot for the Pats, who just beat a division rival the week after their coach called them soft. It’s hard to find many promising signs with the Titans, but they had played great defense prior to the Detroit game. Professionals don’t enjoy being embarrassed, and we expect the Titans to come back with a vengeance.
Pro tip: Wait to see Maye’s status before placing this bet as it could lead to positive line movement.
Jayden Daniels showed guts as he played through a rib injury to rack up a career-high 326 passing yards against a Bears defense that ranked inside the top three in EPA per play. Daniels produced the most total yards and the highest QBR of any quarterback to face the Bears this season, and he had two sweet downfield connections (one to Terry McLaurin and one to Noah Brown on the Hail Mary). Washington’s defense is also fourth in EPA per play since Week 4.
The Giants became the first team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, not allow a touchdown, and lose in regulation when they faced the Commanders in Week 2. Teams have figured out how to slow down rookie star and wideout Malik Nabers during that time, while the Giants were dealt several impactful injuries. NY’s defense is quietly stout on the front line but is 22nd in success rate and yards per play allowed.
Betting on road favorites in divisional matchups is usually a losing proposition. However, it’s worth it in this case. Washington’s defense has shown significant progression, while the offense is consistent and scored more points than all but two teams. The Giants are stuck in first gear and seem to have lost the interest of some of their best players, including Nabers.
Remember when the Saints had the highest scoring margin in the NFL, and we told you not to overreact? Six straight losses and a 26-8 road loss to the Chargers would suggest that we were right. This team will fall back on the injury excuse, but the reality is that they don’t have great pieces on offense, are old on defense, and aren’t well-coached.
Bryce Young did not play terribly against the Broncos’ excellent defense last week despite the 28-14 loss. He ripped off 224 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while the defense was a sore spot once again. Carolina is only 1-7 ATS, but the Saints are 1-5 in their last six games.
We made a rule two weeks ago that we would not bet on the Panthers… but rules were meant to be broken! The Saints don’t look capable of scoring more than 10 points with Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, judging by the fact that they haven’t, and this is too many points.
If there’s one team we whiffed on during the preseason, it was the Broncos. They don’t have five of the most impressive wins in the world, but they have an undeniably strong defense, and Bo Nix has taken care of the football. Denver is 3-2 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS after a win, and they’re catching a ton of points against a team that lost as a 7.5-point favorite just last week.
The Ravens can’t kick their habit of failing to take care of business when they’re expected to. Lamar Jackson was great and was let down by his teammates’ numerous drops, while Derrick Henry was corralled for just the second time this season (but still averaged 6.6 yards per carry).
Denver’s run defense is going to be tested. They’re much better at defending the pass but are still 11th in defensive rush EPA per play and fifth in yards allowed per carry. They’ll need Nix to capitalize against a defense that has had holes in its secondary but that should put all of the pressure on him by stifling the run game. Most people will likely be on Denver, but we like the Ravens to respond to a loss with a dominant win.
Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup to throw for 234 yards and a touchdown in a last-second loss to the Cardinals. Miami’s defense entered the matchup off the back of two solid weeks but could not slow down Kyler Murray and company, and they’re now a perilous 2-5 and at risk of missing the playoffs. Tua didn’t look foreign to being back under center, but the team’s offense has missed its usual big-play ability all year.
Buffalo is 6-0 against teams below its caliber and 0-2 against other contenders. Regardless of their ability to win the Super Bowl, they take care of business against inferior teams and are steaming toward yet another AFC East title. Josh Allen is putting more air under the ball, and the defense is seventh in EPA per play.
This is a big line for the Bills to cover, although it will be a brisk 57 degrees at kick-off under the Buffalo sun. Miami has struggled to play well in colder weather (even though that isn’t very cold), while the Bills are 3-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 22.3 points. We’d lay the points with the Bills.
Trevor Lawrence has to be frustrated. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s eighth in QBR and is fresh off of another 300-yard, two-touchdown game that ended in a three-point loss to the Packers. Jacksonville’s defense is allergic to making big stops, but Tank Bigsby has given them some added clock control with his ability to run the football.
Jalen Hurts spending more time directly under center and targeting more middle-of-the-field throws has unlocked the Eagles’ offense. They’re third in offensive EPA per play since their bye week (in Week 5) and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in four of their last five games, albeit they haven’t faced great opponents.
Philly’s defensive surge is a testament to the development of young stars such as Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Saquon Barkley’s ability to run the football opens up deep shots to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception in four games. All signs point to Philly winning this game fairly comfortably, although the 7.5 is just a fraction too steep of a price for us to lay.
Not all coaching is good coaching. Caleb Williams had stacked three impressive weeks, each better than the previous one, before he came out of a bye week to register four completions for 36 yards in the first 50 minutes against the Commanders. Williams responded well late in the game while Chicago’s defense continued to play at a high level, but there have to be serious questions about the current regime.
It’s time to give respect to Kyler Murray, who is third in QBR and has three multi-touchdown games, all wins, in his last four outings. The Cardinals defense has been up and down and isn’t great, but usually gives the offense a chance to go back and forth with opposing teams. They’re also 2-2 at home, whereas Chicago is 4-3.
While many could be surprised to see the Cardinals favored, we aren’t. The Bears haven’t beaten a team with more than two wins and were outclassed by the Commanders, even if it took a Hail Mary for them to win. Arizona is on the cusp of relevance again, and this feels like a let-down spot for a Bears team that looked very promising just a week ago.
Detroit’s remarkable efficiency has seen it go to the top of the league in yards per point (11.5), just ahead of the Bills at 11.7. They’re also fifth in yards per point on defense, buoyed by their strong red zone defense. Jared Goff and the running game are in total unison, and they’re yet to feel the impact of the loss of Aidan Hutchinson.
Green Bay continues to find ways to win with Malik Willis under center but has to be concerned by the amount of injuries suffered by Jordan Love. They are explosive on the ground and through the air, and they allow 21.3 points per game (11th). They’re also on a four-game win streak and already beat several notable teams.
Goff is about to play his first game outside of a dome this season, which is the type of change that could knock him and the offense out of their rhythm. Love is a better option than Willis (clearly), but they’ve proven that they can win with either one under center. Look at the home underdogs with the points.
Matthew Stafford tossed four touchdowns and one interception in a 30-20 win against the Vikings in his first game with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back on the outside. Jared Verse is creating pressure on opposing QBs, and the team got to enjoy extended rest after playing on TNF last week.
Seattle can gain yards but struggles to put the ball into the end zone at an elite level (12th in red zone touchdown percentage). They’re only 20th in yards per play and falling fast, while the backfield committee has only managed to help the team reach 29th in rushing yards per game (89.3).
LA started slow and ripped off a winning streak last year, and they appear to be on the same path. Seattle’s inefficiency cost them in recent weeks, and their defense is slowly giving out despite Mike MacDonald’s outstanding history as a defensive coach. We’re taking another division rival and favorite on the road, but the line would likely be much greater if a healthy Rams team had a larger body of work.
Joe Flacco will start in place of Anthony Richardson, which means that the Colts should expect to hold onto the ball for longer and to get more consistent production from the QB spot. Flacco averaged 238.7 yards and had seven touchdowns and one interception in three games and will be an upgrade for the offense, while the defense held its last three opponents to an average of 16.7 points per game.
Minnesota was awesome to start the year but has been on the decline recently, losing back-to-back games and getting Sam Darnold’s worst game of the year in their most recent win over the Jets. They got extra rest because they played on TNF but are in desperate need of a rally if they don’t want to sacrifice the progress they made early in the year.
Flacco is better than not only Richardson but Darnold as well. He might not have the same weapons as his QB counterpart, but the Colts put up 27 points per game with him under center. Brian Flores’ defenses often slow down as the year progresses, and this line is too large for an Indy team that is a league-best 7-1 ATS.
Baker Mayfield is throwing the ball a TON, even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup. That resulted in him racking up 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions over his last three games, during which the Bucs scored 36 points per game but only went 1-2 (0-2 since losing the pair of wideouts). The Tampa defense is 27th in success rate and…
Is going against a Chiefs team that leads all NFL offenses in success rate, meaning they stay ahead of the chains. KC also ranks in the top 10 in points scored and points allowed and should be more explosive following the addition of Deandre Hopkins, though Patrick Mahomes has not played great.
The Chiefs don’t usually blow teams out, but they’re 5-2 ATS. Tampa’s defensive skid combined with the lack of weapons and Mayfield’s willingness to put the ball in harm’s way is enough for us to lay the full amount of points with the best team in the NFL.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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