NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread: Fade the Big Favorites, Are the Eagles Back on Track?

• The Ravens moved into second in Super Bowl odds after they thumped the Bucs

• Three teams are favored by at least 10 points in Week 8

• The Colts have the best record against the spread at 6-1 (85.7 percent)

The NFL’s foray through the 2024 season continues with another loaded week of action in Week 8 starting on Thursday.

Although the season is still young, the race for the postseason is beginning to take shape. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the league, while the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys would all miss the playoffs if they started today.

Looking for opinions and analysis of the best bets for NFL Week 8? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered.

Here are our best NFL Week 8 bets against the spread.

Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats

Add another winning week to the record as we climb back toward a winning record! We missed two games by one point yet again but hit three of four primetime picks and called several upsets.

It was a slow start to the year, but we’re back on track. Let’s rip this week and get back into the green.

• Last week’s record: 8-7 (53.3 percent)

• 2024 record: 48-57-2 (45.7 percent)

NFL Week 8 Predictions and Odds

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Rams vs. Vikings - Oct. 17, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings -3 (-115), Rams +3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Vikings -165, Rams +140

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Sean McVay furthered his reputation as a great coach off of a bye week as the Rams took down the spiraling Raiders 20-15, improving to 2-1 at home. They generated very little offense but forced four turnovers and held the Raiders’ QB rotation to a 47.7 completion percentage. They still give up a ton of points and are bad against the run, and it’s unclear if Cooper Kupp will be available to suit up in time.

Minnesota just played one of the closest games of the NFL season in a 31-29 loss to the Lions. Sam Darnold was 22/27 for 259 yards, a touchdown, and a pick, while the running game racked up 139 yards. They couldn’t slow down the Lions’ offense, however, and gave up 391 yards of total offense and the game-winning field goal drive in the final minutes. While this was the Vikings’ first loss of the season, it was also one of their most impressive performances.

The Rams are nowhere near the team the Vikings are at this moment in time, largely due to injuries. Kevin O’Connell has the offense playing at an elite level, while Brian Flores’ defense holds teams to the sixth-fewest points per game (17.8). This line is close because Minnesota has to fly across the country on a short week, but we still like them to cover.

Rams vs. Vikings pick: Vikings -3 (-115) at BetMGM

Browns vs. Ravens - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Ravens -9.5 (-110), Browns +9.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ravens -550, Browns +400

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

Baltimore had the week off last week and is looking to further its four-game win streak when it returns to the field on Sunday. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are both playing at an NFL MVP level, and the team’s impenetrable defensive front holds opponents to the fewest rushing yards per game. All of that combined with the added rest makes them the worst possible opponent for the struggling Browns. 

The Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland might officially be over following the QB’s Achilles injury in the last game. Jameis Winston, who went 5/11 for 67 yards and a touchdown after Watson’s injury, figures to get the start here. Cleveland’s defense held four of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer points, yet they’re still 2-5 against the spread.

Make no mistake, we expect the Ravens to dominate this game. That said, Winston was likely a more viable option than Watson for quite some time, and putting him into the lineup should work to their benefit. The Browns will probably need to score about 17 points to cover this large spread, and we—miraculously—believe they can do that.

Browns vs. Ravens pick: Browns +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Lions vs. Titans - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Titans +11.5 (-110), Lions -11.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +475, Lions -650

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Detroit, despite losing Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg, appears to be the class of the NFC at this point in the season. Jared Goff torched his last four opponents to the tune of 271.5 passing yards per game, an 83.5 completion percentage, 11.9 yards per attempt, and nine touchdowns with just one interception. The defense is also improving, while their running game and offensive line are the best in the NFL.

Mason Rudolph unsurprisingly proved that he was not the answer to the Titans’ struggles in their 34-10 loss to the Bills. Their impressive defense gave up 323 passing yards to Josh Allen, while they failed to crack 90 yards rushing despite winning the time of possession battle. This team has no explosive factor and is just 1-5 ATS.

The Titans simply can’t score the football (17.7 points per game - 27th). Detroit just went to battle with the Vikings in an extremely physical matchup and should have no problem overwhelming a team full of players that should already be looking forward to its next vacation.

Lions vs. Titans pick: Lions -11.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Dolphins vs. Cardinals - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +3 (-115), Dolphins -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +130, Dolphins -155

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins haven’t scored more than 15 points with Tyler Huntley under center in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa. They went so far as to trot out Tim Boyle last weekend, only for him to go 8/13 for 74 yards. They’ve leaned heavily into the run without Tua, but there are rumors that he’ll be back under center and ready to rock on Sunday.

Credit where credit is due: the Cardinals haven’t consistently impressed, but they’re 3-4 with wins against the Rams, 49ers, and Chargers, who are three quality opponents. Kyler Murray had another 40-plus-yard electrifying run in a 17-15 win against the Chargers and is now fifth in QBR despite the Cardinals ranking 19th in scoring offense (21.4 points per game). Their defense is also 26th in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game.

Tua’s reinsertion into the lineup should make the Dolphins a more formidable opponent, but it’s important to remember that he started the year with two touchdowns and three interceptions and completed just 64.5 percent of his passes. Miami’s resurgent running game will help his return, but we still like the Cardinals on this line.

Dolphins vs. Cardinals pick: Cardinals +3 (-115) at BetMGM

Bengals vs. Eagles - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Eagles +2.5 (-105), Bengals -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Eagles +130, Bengals -155

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Cincy just refuses to play complimentary football. They stunk in Week 1, matched unstoppable offense with horrendous defense for the next month, and then held their last two opponents to an average of 10.5 points only for the offense to fall off a cliff. They will always be a scary team, but their inconsistency and immaturity are holding them back.

Philly produced its best performance of the season last week, albeit against the Browns. Saquon Barkley has been a godsend for an inconsistent Eagles offense, but one that seems to be getting back on track now that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are back on the field. It remains to be seen how the defense will hold up against high-powered offenses.

It’s surprising to see the Bengals favored given that they haven’t put one complete performance together. Burrow was playing like the best QB in the league until the last couple of weeks, and he’ll need to get back to that level against an improving Philly team. We’re not fully convinced that the 4-2 Eagles are as good as their record suggests, however, so we’ll take the home team.

Bengals vs. Eagles pick: Bengals -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Patriots vs. Jets - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Jets -7 (-110), Patriots +7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets -300, Patriots +240

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Drake Maye has shown real promise in two starts, both losses, for the Patriots. The third-overall pick averaged 259.5 passing yards and racked up five touchdowns and two interceptions while playing with a disappointing cast of receivers and offensive linemen. New England’s offense has also gotten significantly worse as the year progressed and allowed 181.5 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks.

Shock, Davante Adams did not save the Jets season! Aaron Rodgers is one interception away from tying the league lead and is often confined to dumping the ball off to Breece Hall of the nearest tight end, while the defense hasn’t played at a truly elite level. There is no chemistry or harmony within this team, and they’re on a fast track for an early end to the season.

The Jets are significantly better than the Patriots on paper and should be able to come up with a way to disrupt a rookie QB. That said, this is a divisional matchup on the road, and the Jets’ D looks much worse now that Jeff Ulbrich is trying to be the defensive coordinator and the head coach. Look for the Pats to keep this one close.

Patriots vs. Jets pick: Patriots +7 (-110) at BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Falcons - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-115), Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Falcons -145, Buccaneers +120

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

The Bucs were down 34-10 entering the fourth quarter of a game against the Ravens they made look respectful but had no chance in. Todd Bowles’ insistence on keeping his starters resulted in the offense losing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries, which severely jeopardizes Baker Mayfield’s MVP case and the Bucs’ shot at an NFC Championship Game. That’s not to mention they just gave up 508 yards of total offense and 41 points to the Ravens.

The Falcons already beat the Bucs in overtime a few weeks ago in a game in which Kirk Cousins posted a career-best 509 passing yards. They did not play well in any phase against the Seahawks last week but should look much better on defense considering Tampa’s lack of receiving weapons. 

It’s hard to back the Buccaneers when Mayfield threw five interceptions in his last two games and the defense surrendered an average of 34.7 points over its last three games. We like the Falcons to bounce back against a divisional rival and to take a stranglehold of the NFC South.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons pick: Falcons -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Texans vs. Colts - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Colts +6.5 (-110), Texans -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +225, Texans -275

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Aside from the NFC North, the Texans are a perfect 5-0. But unfortunately, they were just defeated by the Packers 24-22 in a game in which C.J. Stroud completed less than half of his passes and only managed an uncharacteristic 85 yards. Their defense ranks ninth in EPA per play and took the ball away twice last week which is a good sign as they head back to their home field where they’re 3-0.

In one of the strangest phenomenons in recent NFL history, the Colts’ passing game looks significantly worse with their starting quarterback on the field instead of their backup. Anthony Richardson went 10/24 for 129 yards last week, yet the Colts still managed to beat the hapless Dolphins to improve to 4-3. The defense is improving, but there are still real questions waiting to be answered when they go up against an elite offense.

Joe Mixon ran for 159 yards and a touchdown when the Texans met the Colts in Week 1, a game that ended 29-27 in favor of Houston. Indy didn’t learn its lesson and allowed the second-most yards per game (159.9) for the season overall, which gives the Texans a clear path to victory. Assuming Richardson is back under center, we’ll take the chalk.

Texans vs. Colts pick: Texans -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Jaguars vs. Packers - Oct. 27, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Packers -5 (-110), Jaguars +5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -225, Jaguars +185

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Trevor Lawrence is eighth in QBR\, yet the Jaguars are just 2-5 with wins over the Colts and the Patriots. That’s an indictment of poor receiver and offensive line play, and a defense that allowed the third-most points per game (27.7). Jacksonville is 2-0 and scoring 34.5 points per game when Tank Bigsby gets double-digit carries, which feels like a guarantee next week considering he just had 118 yards and two scores on 26 carries last Sunday.

Jordan Love makes plays that very few QBs can, but he’s tied for the league lead in interceptions despite missing 28.6 percent of the season. That’s alarming and must change for Green Bay to fulfill its Super Bowl aspirations, which are not misplaced given how well the rest of the team has performed. The key is the defense, which looks like the best the team has had in years and is sixth in EPA per play.

The Packers just held Stroud to 85 yards by taking away all downfield passing options. Jacksonville isn’t as aggressive and will force them to honor the run, which turns this into a battle of third-down and red-zone conversions. Jacksonville has finally started to figure out its identity and has a nice chance in this one, even if the Packers are more likely to win.

Jaguars vs. Packers pick: Jaguars +5 (-110) at BetMGM

Chargers vs. Saints - Oct. 27, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Saints +7.5 (-110), Chargers -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +300, Chargers -375

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

Jim Harbaugh might be guilty of coaching malpractice for not getting better playmakers for Justin Herbert. The talented gunslinger went 27/39 for 349 yards while throwing to Will Dissly, Joshua Palmer, Ladd McConkey, Simi Fehoko, Jalen Reagor, and others, yet the team lost to the Cardinals 17-15. That’s largely because of their inability to finish drives, as they kicked five field goals while Arizona won with only three scoring drives.

Dennis Allen is one of the worst coaches in the NFL. That’s significant since the best coaches or normally great after bye weeks, his team had extra rest since they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 7… but Allen’s reputation means that extra time at practice may only go to hurt and injured and depleted Saints squad. Spencer Rattler is also in line to start if Derek Carr can’t go, which means that the NFL world might be in for another comedy of errors.

The Chargers cannot be considered legitimate playoff threats as long as they have their current cast of receivers and tight ends. That said, they rank fourth in defensive EPA per play and will hound a mistake-prone Rattler if he’s on the field. Begrudgingly, we’ll take the Chargers. 

Chargers vs. Saints pick: Chargers -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Seahawks vs. Bills - Oct. 27, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Bills -3 (-110), Seahawks +3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills -155, Seahawks +130

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Amari Cooper’s arrival in Buffalo took the handcuffs off of Josh Allen, who broke 300 yards passing for the first time this season in a 34-10 win against a Titans defense that had played great defense up until kick-off. The Bills are still playing conservatively in most situations, but the downfield threat of Cooper gives them more ways to win games. The defense also ranks in the top 10 in points allowed despite allowing the fifth-most joint-red zone entries per game.

Seattle has been great at racking up counting stats but falling short in efficiency for large portions of the season. That said, they're eighth in points per game and 12th in yards per play, which is more than enough to win games when Mike MacDonald’s defense is on its P’s and Q’s. A matchup to keep an eye on is how Byron Murphy II and Jonathan Hankins control the point of attack in the trenches.

Allen’s Bills beat non-contenders by an average of 18.2 points and lost to the contenders they faced. Seattle falls into the first bucket more than the second, though they have a winning record and will force the Bills to fly across the country for their game. Buffalo’s red zone defense will have to stand tall, but we trust it to do just that.

Seahawks vs. Bills pick: Bills -3 (-110) at BetMGM

Commanders vs. Bears - Oct. 27, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Bears -2.5 (-110), Commanders +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears -140, Commanders +115

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

The Offensive Rookie of the Year showdown could be stymied by a rib injury sustained by Jayden Daniels during a 40-7 blowout win against the Panthers. Daniels has played like one of the five best quarterbacks in the league, while his backup, Marcus Mariota, went 18/23 for 205 yards and two touchdowns last week. Washington’s secondary has proven to be a sore spot throughout the year but is slowly improving and helped secure two picks against Carolina.

On the other side, Caleb Williams and the Bears are fresh off of a bye week and are looking for their first win against a team with more than two wins. Their suffocating defense held teams to the fourth-fewest points per game (16.8), while Williams showed improvement in four straight weeks. A road win would be a first for the Bears, who lost to the Texans and the Colts in their only two games away from their building.

A bye week helps most teams, but especially one with a rookie QB. At the same time, Washington’s coaching staff has done a better job than Chicago’s and has a system that fits Mariota in the event he’s needed to play. Chicago gives up sacks at the sixth-highest clip while Washington is sixth in sack percentage, which makes that a crucial matchup in this showdown.

Commanders vs. Bears pick: Commanders +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Broncos vs. Panthers - Oct. 27, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Panthers +7.5 (-110), Broncos -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers +300, Broncos -375

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Are the Broncos… good? Call their wins what you may, they won four of their last five games and are 1-0 against their division. Bo Nix drifts between absent-minded and competent, but the Denver defense holds teams to the fewest yards per play and the third-fewest points per game.

We said last week that we learned our lesson and wouldn’t pick the Panthers for the foreseeable future, and what happened? They lost to the Commanders with a backup quarterback 40-7. This team has completely given up at every position, and Andy Dalton is no longer providing the shot in the arm he did during his first couple of weeks back under center.

It might seem hard to believe, but three of the Broncos’ four wins came by at least 16 points. They’re on a bit of a hot streak, forced two turnovers and held the Saints to 10 points last week, and had an extended period of rest. Ride with the Broncos to get to a shocking 5-3.

Broncos vs. Panthers pick: Broncos -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Raiders vs. Chiefs - Oct. 27, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -10 (-110), Raiders +10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Raiders +350

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Antonio Pierce’s quarterback carousel was forced to come to an end last week, during which Aidan O’Connell suffered a long-term injury. That means Gardner Minshew, who threw three interceptions and completed 44.1 percent of his passes last week, is the full-time starter moving forward. Vegas gives up the fourth-most points per play and doesn’t have the roster to succeed.

Kansas City won its Super Bowl rematch against the Niners 28-18 last week despite Patrick Mahomes throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. This is the best defense they’ve had during their dynasty years and one of the three best defenses in the NFL, which is why they’re 6-0 with Mahomes playing the worst football of his career.

KC has a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball and doesn’t blow many teams out. Granted, they won two straight games by double-digits, but they have their sights set further down the road and won’t empty the tank against an inferior divisional opponent they’ve dominated for years.

Raiders vs. Chiefs pick: Raiders +10 (-110) at BetMGM

49ers vs. Cowboys - Oct. 27, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Cowboys +5 (-110), 49ers -5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys +180, 49ers -225

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-115/-105)

Brock Purdy struggled with the press-man looks the Chiefs defense threw at him, resulting in him going 17/31 for 212 yards and three interceptions. The Niners are still finding success on the ground, but Purdy is going to need to play at an elite level to overcome the loss of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel if the latter isn’t healthy in time for the game. The Niners’ defense did a great job against Mahomes but still gave up 28 total points.

Dallas gets blown out more than any good team. They have the worst rushing attack in the league and are extremely one-dimensional because of their reliance on CeeDee Lamb to make plays in the passing game. They’re only 23rd in EPA per dropback play are without DeMarcus Lawrence, and could also miss Micah Parsons if he doesn’t recover from an ankle sprain in time.

A full-strength Dallas would be in a good position to take advantage of San Fran’s flaws. It remains to be seen if Purdy can elevate a cast of second-string receivers, and while this game is in the Bay, the Cowboys will be fresh after their bye week and motivated following a blowout loss to the Lions.

49ers vs. Cowboys pick: Cowboys +5 (-110) at BetMGM

Steelers vs. Giants - Oct. 27, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Giants +6 (-110), Steelers -6 (-120)

• Moneyline: Giants +220, Steelers -275

• Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)

Mike Tomlin put his cajones on the table and started Russell Wilson in place of Justin Fields for the first time this season in last week’s matchup with the Jets. The result was the best all-around team performance of the season and a 37-15 win against a team that was desperate for a win. This defense has now held teams to an average of 14.4 points per game (second), while the offense suddenly might not be stuck in third gear.

Injuries to Andrew Thomas and Kayvon Thibodeaux took away few of the limited playmakers the Giants had, leaving them severely bereft of talent. Daniel Jones was benched for Drew Lock in a 28-3 loss to the Eagles last week, and talk has now centered around the G-Men potentially trading their best player, Dexter Lawrence II.

The Giants are flat-out terrible. Wilson showed signs of rust early against the Jets but rounded into shape as the game progressed and made solid downfield throws. Jones also threw two touchdowns and two picks in a 26-16 loss to the Steelers his only time matching up with them, and we predict something similar will play out.

Steelers vs. Giants pick: Steelers -6 (-120) at BetMGM

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