The Bills are the largest favorites of the week against the Titans
The Chiefs are underdogs on the road against the 49ers in a Super Bowl rematch
The Vikings are the only team that is undefeated against the spread
This is the best time to be a fan of professional football, full stop.
The intrigue of the 2024 NFL season comes from the lack of consistency and patterns that have occurred. Teams started the year scoring the fewest points per game in nearly 20 years, only for the last two weeks to be stuffed with offensive explosions.
Underdogs had also been overwhelmingly successful early in the season, only for every single favorite to win outright in Week 6. All of that begs the question “Where do we go from here?” Well, we’ll tell you where! We go to our best bets against the spread for NFL Week 7.
Here are our best NFL bets for the upcoming weekend.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
The 2024 NFL season has been one of the worst on record for public bettors. Our record is still significantly better than the average, even if it is not positive, and we’re coming off of a solid Week 6.
We nailed some of the chalk talk with correct picks of the 49ers, Bengals, and Lions. We missed the Commanders at +6.5 in a seven-point game and may have finally been convinced to fade the Panthers at all costs.
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If there’s one area we’ve been consistent in, it’s our view of the New Orleans Saints. We said not to buy their stock after the first two weeks of the season, and they’ve now lost four straight games and just gave up 51 points to a divisional opponent. Rookie Spencer Rattler got the start last week and should be the first man up again on Thursday after going 22/40 for 243 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
What happened to Denver’s excellent defense? They were carved up by an LA Chargers team that had very few recognizable names at skill positions and that hadn’t produced more than 200 yards passing in a single game. Bo Nix also registered 16 passing yards on his first 16 attempts, and the team had not scored a point five minutes into the fourth quarter.
Fading a rookie on a short week is normally a smart decision—unfortunately, both quarterbacks here are rookies, and it’s Nix’s Broncos who are on the road. Denver has the better defense, but New Orleans can run the ball and is still solid on D. This should stay close, but we like Nix more than Rattler, and that can make all the difference on a one-point line.
The Jags won one game all year and are 5.5-point favorites away from home (in London), which says an awful lot about the state of the Patriots. Jacksonville just got dominated by the Bears in a game that could have been closer if Trevor Lawrence’s receivers had come to play instead of dropping four touchdown passes. It’s hard to find hope for this team, especially when starters are accusing one another of quitting after the game is over.
Drake Maye threw for more touchdowns in his first start (three) than Jacoby Brissett (two) did during the first five games of the season. Turnovers, specifically fumbles, killed this team last week, but they weren’t in terrible positions early in the game and now have a quarterback who can actually move the football. They should also be better if Rhamondre Stevenson is healthy enough to play unlike last week.
Jacksonville should be considered the better team, but are they really? They have the worst defensive EPA per play in the entire NFL (New England is 24th), and their quarterback is having the worst year of his career. They have a huge leg up by being able to stay in London whereas the Pats have to travel there, but we still like the underdogs with the points.
Three straight weeks against the NFC South led to three straight wins for the Falcons, putting them in the driver’s seat for the division and closer to the NFC lead. Their last win over the Panthers was their first dominant performance of the season, although they’ve usually responded to adversity. Kirk Cousins is still playing clean football, which is a welcome sign for an older player coming off of an Achilles tear.
The Seahawks fell to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 and will now make the trip across the country. Their defensive solidarity completely went by the wayside after Week 3, while Geno Smith has four touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games despite leading the NFL in passing yards. This team needs to find its footing and, in turn, its floor, and get back to playing lockdown defense.
Seattle will move the ball but isn’t overly efficient, ranking 18th in yards per point scored. Atlanta has a QB who is playing well and should be able to take advantage of several injuries to Seattle’s defense, as well as a defense that is ninth in yards per pass attempt defended.
The Bills have taken an interesting approach to their season, and it’s one that will make them a near-lock to beat inferior teams but struggle to beat top teams. They won’t allow Josh Allen (19th in passing yards) to throw the ball down the field, but that also means that he hasn’t thrown an interception, and they’re still seventh in scoring. The defense has also been great and isn’t fading away like it did in recent seasons.
Clavin Ridley’s postgame comments were an obvious indication that there’s dissension in the Titans’ locker room, likely due to the poor play of QB Will Levis. The team is only 28th in EPA per play and has one win on the season despite playing very solid defense.
Tennessee is 1-4 against the spread, while Buffalo is an even 3-3. It will be hard for them to blow the Titans off the field considering that Tenneseee is ninth in rushing yards allowed per game and fifth in opponents’ yards per rush attempt, especially since Buffalo doesn’t attack deep down the field. Look for this game to be controlled by the Bills but for the Titans to cover.
Deshaun Watson’s pitiful play has the Browns on the verge of stealing the title of the worst team in the league despite having the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, presiding over their defense. This team simply cannot move the ball and has just as many touchdowns from one of its safeties over the last two weeks as it does its quarterback.
The Bengals escaped a closer-than-it-should-have-been battle with the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football to keep their slim postseason hopes alive at 2-4. Joe Burrow had his first unamazing game in a month, but the Cincy defense finally held serve and kept the G-Men to just seven points. There are still major concerns on that side of the ball, however, as they rank 26th in EPA per play.
The Browns might not be favored again for the rest of the season. They played the Eagles to a four-point loss last week but only because of a special teams touchdown and because Nick Sirianni is more interested in one-upping his own fans than he is winning football games (shots fired). Take the Bengals to score at least 20 points, which means take the Bengals to score at least 4.5 points more than the Browns appear to be capable of.
Although these teams play in different conferences, they are extremely similar in terms of position in the league and in general composition. Both have young strong-armed QBs, veteran running backs, impressive and improving defenses, and a plethora of receiving options. The Packers won four of their last five, giving up more than 19 points just once during that time, and Jordan Love has six touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games.
Houston forced four turnovers and got five offensive touchdowns in a 41-21 win against the Patriots last week. C.J. Stroud continued his MVP campaign with 192 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick, while sophomore Will Anderson Jr. wreaked havoc with three sacks and four tackles for loss. Houston just cracked the top 10 in defensive EPA per play and has one of the game’s best under-center.
There are going to be fireworks in this game. Love is an aggressive risk-taker and will put pressure on Stroud, who needs to find solutions in the downfield passing game without his favorite target, Nico Collins. Houston has the better pass defense (first in completion percentage allowed, fourth in opponent yards per attempt) but will need to be prepared for Green Bay’s running game (second in yards per carry). We’ll take the home team in a one-score game.
The Colts are trapped in the unenviable position of having a raw, talented 22-year-old quarterback on their roster, but also knowing that their 39-year-old backup is a much better player and option even at this stage in his career. Theur produced one of their best defensive performances of the season in holding the Titans to 17 points and 241 total yards, though they also failed to crack 300 yards of offense after a couple of explosive games.
The Dolphins are trapped in the undeniable position of having the reigning league leader in passing yards who is making hundreds of millions of dollars but is unavailable due to injury. Tyler Huntley figures to get the start here despite having a QBR of 21.9 in two starts thus far.
Neither team expected to find itself in the position it does when the season started. Miami has been tougher on opposing offenses but isn’t a defensive juggernaut, while the Colts need to show they have more than just one strong week against a terrible Tennessee offense to prove they turned the corner. This should be an ugly game, but we’ll take the Dolphins because of the line value of the 3.5 points.
The Vikings’ 5-0 record still puts them only one game ahead of the second-place Detroit Lions in a division in which every team has already won four games. They took last week off following a 23-17 win over the New York Jets in London and could have Aaron Jones back after suffering an injury. Brian Flores’ defense baffled and bruised Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers, so who’s to say it won’t get to Jared Goff?
Detroit put the beatdown of all beatdowns on the Cowboys in a 47-9 walloping last weekend. This team has the best offensive line in football, can run and pass at an elite level, scores more points (30.2 per game) than everyone else, and climbed all the way to 11th in defensive EPA per play. However, they suffered a huge blow with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson last weekend, which will have an immediate and tangible impact.
The Minnesota offense is due for some regression since Sam Darnold, no matter how much he’s improved, likely won’t sustain the level he played at during the first four weeks of the season. The loss of Hutchinson is enormous, but Dan Campbell knows how to get his guys motivated, especially since they had so much fun and got to rest down the stretch last week. Take the Lions to hand the Vikings their first loss of the season.
What do we make of this Giants team? Daniel Jones had a solid start to the year before completely disappearing on Sunday Night Football, but the Giants’ defense stepped up and held the Bengals to seven points. There’s no consistency with this team, which is a major reason why they’re already 0-3 at home.
Nick Sirianni berated his own fans after his “heroic” victory against the Browns. Philly’s offense looked much better with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back in the lineup, but they still only beat a hapless Cleveland team by four points having rested during a bye week the week before. Nothing about this team feels good even though they’re favored to win the NFC East.
Neither one of these teams will induce feelings of comfort for their bettors. The Giants have a much worse roster and haven’t won a game at home, so we’ll take the Eagles to cover in spite of their lack of cohesion and problems on both sides of the ball.
Matthew Stafford started slow and came on strong last year. Well, he started this year slow, and is now roaring off of a bye week into a matchup with the nearby Raiders. LA’s defense gave up the fourth-most points per game (27.8) and the most rushing yards per game (157.6) and needs to improve dramatically for the team to be competitive.
How long will Antonio Pierce be able to survive with the “gets his guys up to play” gimmick? Davante Adams was just traded and teams will likely be calling about Maxx Crosby leading up to the trade deadline. They surrendered 32 and 34 points to the Steelers and Broncos in the last two weeks and don’t seem to be fighting for their teammates at all.
It’s hard to feel confident laying six points on a 1-4 Rams team, but the Raiders have been awful and seem to be losing the underdog mindset that drove them to some of their best wins over the last two seasons. We expect the Rams to have used the bye week well and to win and cover on Sunday.
The Commanders’ second loss of the young season was arguably Jayden Daniels’ most impressive performance. The second-overall pick was a deadeye from the pocket en route to 269 yards and two touchdowns without starting back, Brian Robinson Jr., being in the backfield. Unfortunately, the Washington defense can’t stop opposing offenses with any level of competence and just lost Jonathan Allen to a pec tear.
Andy Dalton’s return to action has started to fizzle out. He threw two touchdowns and three interceptions over his last two games, and the Panthers lost their last three by an average of 18 points. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed and dead last in scoring defense, which is a huge sign of worry with a high-powered offense on the other side of the matchup.
Daniels and the Commanders needed that loss against the Ravens, but they looked and sounded understandably upset. Daniels is getting better every time he steps on the field, while Dalton and the Panthers are already prepared for the offseason. Be on the lookout for a Commanders' blowout victory.
San Francisco’s return to health helped inspire a dominant 36-24 road win against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. They had a long week to prepare for the same team that’s haunted them for years and that took them down in the Super Bowl; at the top of desired internal improvements is their pass defense, which has not hit the same level it did in recent seasons.
The Chiefs are 5-0 and coming off of a bye week. Patrick Mahomes is playing the worst football of his career (six touchdowns, six interceptions) but is being supported by a defense that is sixth in scoring defense and ninth in yards allowed per play. They’ll need to knock Brock Purdy, who just threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns, off his spot to get a leg up.
History makes it difficult to favor the 49ers over the Chiefs. Mahomes and Andy Reid regularly pull out their best games against their toughest opponent, and both are excellent after bye weeks, but this team has suffered a ton of injuries on offense. Despite that, we’ll take them in an “upset.”
It appears as if Russell Wilson will take the field for the first time in the season, controversially replacing Justin Field in the starting lineup. Pittsburgh has an archaic offense that does not attack downfield and a team that relies heavily on the most expensive defense in football. They are a goal-line stand away from being 5-1 and gave up the second-fewest points per game, but they also ranked 26th in yards per play and likely won’t improve with a rusty Wilson.
Davante Adams could make his Jets debut for a team that has struggled to get its best receiver, Garrett Wilson, in impactful positions all season. Aaron Rodgers is effective in the short passing game but often struggles to make plays downfield or when he has to hold onto the ball for more than a few seconds, and the defense is a solid-but-not-amazing 11th in EPA per play.
We’d love the Steelers with Fields under center. Wilson is much less of a guarantee, especially since this is his Pittsburgh debut and he’s both rusty and coming off of an injury. We don’t expect Adams to make the Jets Super Bowl contenders, but we do expect him to help catalyze the team and lead a win on Sunday night.
Will this be the highest-scoring game of the season? The Ravens scored at least 30 points in three straight games, while the Buccaneers just hung 51 on the Saints. Baltimore’s lethal Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry combination has dominated every defense in its way, and their run defense is the clear-cut best in the league.
Baker Mayfield threw three interceptions but also had four touchdowns last week and now leads the league with 15. Tampa moves the ball with ease and has an improved running game, and their run defense has improved to the 11th-best in the league.
This could easily come down to Mayfield and Jackson going throw-for-throw with one another. The Ravens are scorching hot and are playing in a way that it seems impossible for their offense to be stopped so long as they don’t make self-imposed mistakes. Tampa is a resilient squad but likely won’t play as clean of a game as Baltimore.
The Cardinals didn’t do much of anything in their 34-13 road loss to the Packers last week. They struggle in games in which they can’t establish the run, and they’ll have to invest in their ground game even more now that Marvin Harrison Jr. is in concussion protocol. They haven’t shown an ability to stop strong quarterbacks and will have a tough challenge on Sunday.
Jim Harbaugh finally allowed Justin Herbert to cut loose in last week’s win over the Broncos, which was also Herbert’s first game with at least 200 yards passing this season. They’re 2-1 on the road and held every team they played to 20 points or less, which limits the range of outcomes for their opponents.
LA’s defense just might be the best in football. However, they have little-to-no recognizable names at skill positions ready to help Herbert, and Murray’s ability to scramble out of the pocket makes him dangerous for a team that has played well thus far. We can’t guarantee an upset, but we’d look at the Cardinals to close out the week.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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