The Chiefs, Colts, Commanders, and Broncos are 4-1 against the spread
Underdogs are having their best year on record
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will face the Bills without former coach Robert Saleh
Thought the madness of 2024 NFL betting was over? Think again.
The New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals spring upsets against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers in two of the most unexpected results of the week.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans took down the Buffalo Bills in a battle of AFC Championship contenders, and the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders continued their rise to the top of the NFC standings.
Which teams will rise and shine in Week 6? Here are our best NFL bets against the spread for Week 6.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
Well, it was a tough week for us. Week 5 was our worst week of the season, and to make it worse, a couple of misses were hits based on closing line values.
Large underdogs continue to be money-makers this NFL season. We’re still outperforming public sides (bets with more than 50 percent of tickets) but have left meat on the bone. That changes with this week’s picks!
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Seattle had a chance to tie the Giants late but could only watch as the kick was blocked and returned for a touchdown. They’re 3-2 (2-1 at home) with two straight losses after an impressive 3-0 start, albeit one against lesser competition. They rank seventh in yards per play allowed and ninth in yards per play but haven’t been able to get stops for the past two weeks.
The Niners are only one game behind the first-place Seahawks, though this is still a position that they likely did not expect to find themselves in. They haven’t had a win against a good team since Week 1 and lost three of their last four games, all by one score. Brock Purdy had played well until last week, but the biggest story is that the defense is no longer elite (12th in EPA per play).
One of the best signs from last week’s loss to the Cardinals was that Brandon Aiyuk emerged, catching eight passes for 147 yards. San Fran also held Kyler Murray under 200 yards passing and forced a turnover, and Seattle’s issues running the ball combined with Geno Smith’s lack of mobility give them the advantage in the matchup. We like the visiting team to find its footing in a short week.
This is the Caleb Williams the Bears thought they were getting when they took him with the first pick in the NFL Draft. The first-year pro went 20/29 for 304 yards and two touchdowns in a dominant 36-10 win against the Carolina Panthers in which Chicago also ran the ball for 128 yards and forced three turnovers. Their defense is sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt and ninth in sack percentage, making it difficult for opponents to move the ball through the air.
Jacksonville easily played its best game of the season last week in a 37-34 win against the Colts. They had no answers in the secondary and continued a worrying trend there, but Trevor Lawrence went 28/34 for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Jacksonville ranks 25th in completion percentage allowed and 28th in opponent’s passing yards per attempt, which spells trouble against a confident Williams.
This will probably end up as one of the most-bet lines of the week. The Bears are simply better than the Jags, have a dominant defense, and their quarterback looks more comfortable every week. Jacksonville had a great week and still nearly lost to a Colts team that is going to miss the playoffs, which makes it easy to fade them here.
Jordan Love threw one of the worst pick-sixes in the history of the NFL but still went for 224 yards and two touchdowns and played an otherwise clean game in a 24-19 win against the LA Rams. The Packers also continued to run the ball to great effect, picking up 126 yards (4.2 yards per carry) on the ground. This also appears to be their best defense in years as they rank 11th in EPA per play.
Kyler Murray has the sixth-highest QBR in football and was the standout player in Arizona’s upset win against the 49ers. They struggle to stop the run and the pass and might need to rethink their head coach situation, but they are once again one of the best running teams in the league.
The Packers’ key to victory is through preventing Arizona from controlling the clock and creating explosive plays without turning the ball over. The Cardinals don’t want to, nor are they that capable of matching Jordan Love throw-for-throw, especially because their defense puts them behind the 8 ball. Underdogs have been printing money this year, and we think the Cards can stay close enough to cover if they can snag a takeaway or two.
Will Levis is likely to retain his spot as the Titans’ starting quarterback despite suffering a shoulder injury and looking worse than his backup, Mason Rudolph, in Week 4. That win was Tennessee’s first of the season despite their defense holding teams to the third-fewest yards per play. They got last week off and will be rested and prepared for when the Colts come to town.
Indy handed the starting reins to reigning Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco, who did not disappoint. The veteran went 33/44 for 359 yards and three touchdowns, but the Indy defense couldn’t stop the Jags and led to them losing 34-37. Anthony Richardson, like Levis, was deemed the starter when healthy and is “optimistic” about playing this weekend.
The Titans’ defense is the best unit in this game. Levis is uninspiring, but Richardson is a turnover machine that is coming off of an injury. Tennessee is at home and will be rested because of the bye week, which makes them our preferred pick here.
The rumors are that Jerod Mayo is considering starting third-overall pick Drake Maye in place of veteran and underperforming Jacoby Brissett. That could be a recipe for disaster, since the Pats’ offensive line allowed a league-high in pressures, and the receivers struggled to make any impact plays. New England's defense is also 23rd in EPA per play, which is trouble against an explosive Houston team.
Nico Collins is questionable but has a real chance of missing this game. That would make Stefon Diggs the primary target for C.J. Stroud, who is currently fourth in NFL MVP odds and threw for more than 350 yards in Week 5. Houston’s defense gives up a lot of points despite ranking fourth in yards per play and sixth in sack percentage, though that’s more of an indication of how other teams are forced to be aggressive because of their offensive firepower.
This game is up in the air because of Collins’ status and Maye’s potential insertion into the lineup. Large underdogs have been incredibly profitable and successful against the spread, which should make the home team the better bet. Houston also hasn’t won a game by more than six points, so we’ll take the underdogs to cover in a game they likely won’t win.
Tampa Bay has one of the most effective offenses in the NFL and a savvy defensive mind in Todd Bowles running the defense. Baker Mayfield is ninth in passing yards, second in touchdowns, ninth in QBR, and only threw two interceptions, while rookie running back Bucky Irving has made a positive impact in the backfield. They couldn’t get a stop against the Falcons last week but still rank positively in most defensive metrics.
The Saints could be without Derek Carr, who suffered an oblique injury, leaving Jake Haener to potentially step into the lineup—even if Carr plays, this offense hasn’t looked good since the first two weeks of the season. Their defense is solid but not enough to withstand onslaughts from opposing teams given the current state of the offense.
The Buccaneers are a Kirk Cousins career-high and/or an overtime coin flip away from being 4-1. They’re one of the top teams in the NFC and should be favored by more than two points!
The chemistry in Philadelphia—well, it doesn’t seem to exist. Jalen Hurts has six turnovers in four games and doesn’t seem to see eye-to-eye with coach Nick Sirianni, and the team is dealing with injuries to numerous superstars. They used to be dominant on defense, but they only have one solid game compared to three bad-to-awful ones.
Cleveland’s historically poor offense and the continued struggles of Deshaun Watson are one of the less glamorous stories of the season thus far. They averaged the fewest yards per play and scored the third-fewest points per game in the league, and things won’t be getting better behind an injured offensive line and a team that looks totally deprived of inspiration. Myles Garrett just recorded the second stat-less game of his career last week, and the defense went from one of the league’s elite to ranking 23rd in points per game (24.2).
Philly’s defense has been friendly to nearly every team it's faced and is coming off of a bye week, meaning it SHOULD be able to produce an average game at the very least. Hurts is going to have to prove that he’s cut the turnovers out of his game against an opportunistic defense, while Cleveland simply needs to find any way possible to get points on the board. This is all about determining if the Eagles’ problems are that serious, and we believe that they are.
Baltimore’s one-two punch of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry might just be unstoppable. Henry is first and Jackson is eighth in rushing yards, they both averaged career-highs in rushing yards per attempt (6.0 and 8.0), and they combined to score eight touchdowns. Lamar is also having an outstanding year throwing the ball, though the Ravens’ defense has regressed all the way to 22nd in EPA per play.
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders statistically have one of the two or three best offenses since 2000 (!!!). Daniels had a slow start against the Browns and Myles Garrett last weekend but came on strong and now ranks third in QBR with eight total touchdowns and two interceptions. Washington is second in rushing yards per game, trailing only Baltimore, and held its last two opponents to 13.5 points per game after struggling in Weeks 1-3.
This could be the most exciting game of the week because of the dynamic quarterbacks and because of the proximity of the two teams. Washington has been better on offense but hasn’t been great at tackling, which is a huge problem dealing with Lamar and Henry. Daniels has answered every question thus far and already went on the road to beat the Bengals in primetime, and we like him to answer another test and help Washington cover the spread.
Denver quietly built one of the best defenses in the league less than a year after it gave up 70 points in a game against the Dolphins. The defense is the key here since rookie Bo Nix, despite racking up three total touchdowns and no interceptions last week, is just 25th in QBR and rarely pushes the ball more than 5-10 yards downfield. Denver also has one of the worst rushing attacks in the league.
Justin Herbert got to take last week off and is expected to return to the lineup, along with several other impact players. LA still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game, though its play-calling leaves something to be desired. Great coaches normally win bye weeks, and we believe Jim Harbaugh is a great coach.
We might have a different opinion on this game had the Chargers not just gotten healthy and spent more time with their new coach during a bye week. Harbaugh never faced Oregon and Nix at Michigan last year but should be familiar with him and his limitations, and as one of the best defensive minds in the league, should have a plan to slow him down.
The Davante Adams drama has distracted from the fact that the Raiders have been terrible, particularly on offense. They can’t decide who to play between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell and gave up the fifth-most points per game, leading to them falling to 2-3. This team will play hard but also doesn’t impress in any category.
Pittsburgh could turn to Russell Wilson for the first time this season. Kyle Allen took reps under center in place of Justin Fields last week as Fields, despite having his moments, hasn’t created many big plays and hasn’t found much success using his legs. Pittsburgh’s defense is still elite (second in points allowed per game - 14.6), but the offense is flat-out archaic at this point.
This will not be a fun game to watch for neutral fans who just want to see an aesthetic game. We don’t expect either team to be able to score many points and would lean toward the Raiders simply because they are underdogs and can push on a loss of a field goal.
Dallas picked up an impressive win on the road without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and despite committing several turnovers. Their offense is average at best and fairly one-dimensional, though they figured out how to stop the run over the last two weeks. They still need Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to be at their best to win high-scoring games.
Detroit is overwhelmingly physical and will be at full strength coming off of a bye week. They completely shut down the run and force their opponents to pass while dominating the time of possession with a strong run and play-action offensive attack. Aidan Hutchinson has also emerged as the early Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
As necessary as Dallas’ late and dramatic win was for its season, it still doesn’t look settled on offense. Detroit has just as strong if not a better defense and is in much better of a rhythm on offense, is rested, and should control the clock, all of which are reasons to back them on the road.
Carolina might have been blown out 36-10 by the Bears last week, but there were still reasons to believe in them as an underdog moving forward. They turned the ball over three times, two of which were on fumbles, and missed a field goal, which makes it close to impossible to win games. However, Chuba Hubbard continued an unexpectedly great season running the ball, and Andy Dalton was still great in two of three games as the starter.
The Falcons will have been off for 10 days when they take the field on Sunday, which gives them an immediate advantage. Kirk Cousins just threw for a career-high 509 yards in a thrilling overtime victory, though the defense still struggles to get stops in key spots. It also seems like Atlanta can’t quite strike the balance of getting the best out of its best-skill position players at the same time.
It may have been spoiled already, but we’re looking at the Panthers to cover at home—not because they have a home-field advantage, but because they completely took away their chances of covering last week and showed promising signs the two weeks before. Cousins was electric last week but is due for a step back, and the defense doesn’t look ready to slow down opposing QBs.
Daniel Jones quietly played a great game without Malik Nabers in the Giants’ upset victory over the Seahawks last week. Nabers has a chance to return from a concussion this week and give a huge shot in the arm to an offense that, despite last week’s win, relies on him heavily. NY’s defense is mediocre but can get after the QB (first in sack percentage).
Joe Burrow is playing like one of, if not the best players in the league, despite his team being just 1-4. Ja’Marr Chase also exploded for an outstanding game last week, and this team would be legitimate Super Bowl LIX contenders with even an average defense. They allowed the second-most points per game and have the third-worst defensive EPA per play.
There’s no hope for the Bengals this year and likely in the next couple (due to contracts and the salary cap) if they can’t beat the Giants. Burrow is playing out of his skin, but the defense’s continued struggles combined with Jones’ strong performances as of late make this harder to call than what was expected. That said, we believe this will be a dominant performance by the Bengals as they move to 2-4 and stay alive… for now.
Josh Allen only completed nine of his 30 pass attempts last week, though that wasn’t even the biggest story of the game. That title belongs to Sean McDermott’s egregious end-of-game miscues with the game clock, which allowed Houston to kick a game-winning field goal. Buffalo dominated non-contenders in Weeks 1-3 and then posed little threat to bona fide championship contenders in the last two weeks.
The Jets may have fired Robert Saleh, but they didn’t fire their real head coach, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was horrible last week as he threw two touchdowns and three interceptions, and there’s no reason to believe that he will improve with Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator or the players around him. They also can’t count on stopping one of the league’s best players drive after drive like they’d hope to.
Saleh was a defensive-minded coach who had his defense playing at an elite level. Firing him will not fix the offensive woes, make Rodgers younger, or build chemistry with the receivers, and we see this as a negative move at best. Look for the Bills to erupt after two dormant weeks.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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