The Vikings are the league’s only undefeated team straight up and against the spread
The Jets blew the biggest advantage of Week 4, losing as seven-point favorites
Underdogs of at least 5.5 points are 17-4-1 ATS overall
Thought that NFL upsets were yesterday’s news? Think again.
Underdogs went 10-4 against the spread in NFL Week 4, while they and the under continued to be in fashion. The Baltimore Ravens also surged in Super Bowl odds after they demolished the Buffalo Bills, while the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings remained perfect.
As the NFL betting world starts to find its footing after a tumultuous start to the year, we’re here to share our favorite NFL picks against the spread in Week 5.
Here are our best NFL Week 5 bets.
Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats
Last week’s record was actually better than it appears as the Giants covered the 5.5-point closing line but not the opening 4.5. We were all over the Jaguars, the Vikings, and the Bucs, but blew our picks of the Bills and the Seahawks.
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Atlanta is a team that is used to playing within the margins. They nailed a game-winning field goal with no time on the clock to beat the Saints in Week 4, bringing their list of results to: an eight-point loss, a one-point win, a five-point loss, and a two-point win. Kirk Cousins looks increasingly comfortable with every start, though it still feels as if they aren’t getting the most out of their weapons.
Baker Mayfield now owns two of the best quarterback performances of the 2024 NFL season after he torched the Eagles for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bucs have been uncharacteristically bad at defending the run but are showing a better balance on offense now that rookie back Bucky Irving is emerging as a valuable contributor. They also already beat a strong team, the Lions, on the road.
These teams are fairly evenly matched, though the Bucs’ offensive explosiveness gives them the advantage. Baker Mayfield also seems to excel as an underdog, whereas Cousins has a long history of folding in primetime. Expect the Bucs to stay hot with a win.
How will the NFL’s only 4-0 team that is also 4-0 against the spread fair in London? Sam Darnold, the league’s leader in touchdown passes, will lead the Vikings across the pond for a matchup with a Jets team that only managed nine points against the Broncos last week. Minnesota has been brilliant against the run, is second in turnovers, and allowed the fifth-fewest points per game thus far.
The Jets’ loss in Week 4 was horrible, not just because of the opponent, but because they had a full week-and-a-half to prepare for the game. Aaron Rodgers went from playing outstandingly well to looking feeble and uninspired, even despite the defense completely flustering rookie Bo Nix. This is a team with pieces but no culture and a lack of leadership that gives it one of the widest ranges of outcomes on any given week.
Minnesota has been the much better team up to this point and has the decided coaching advantage with Kevin O’Connell over Robert Saleh. That said, it’s tough to envision Sam Darnold’s hot streak continuing forever, and he’ll be in for a real test against this defense. Watch for the Jets’ volatility to result in them finding a way to cover here.
Remember when the Panthers and Bears basically swapped franchises so that Carolina could get the first-overall pick and the rights to draft Bryce Young? That trade may have actually been a lose-lose, as the Panthers look much better with 36-year-old Andy Dalton under center, while Williams looks out of sync, and D.J. Moore has been standoffish with his teammates.
The Panthers beat the Raiders by 14 points two weeks ago and should have covered but lost to the Bengals by 10 last week. On the other hand, the Bears beat the Rams by six in Williams’ best game of his career, though he still only managed 157 yards and one touchdown.
Both teams are in situations where they need things to break their way so that they can find some momentum. There’s no question that the Bears are the more talented team, but a strong game from Dalton would mean that Carolina, at this stage, has the better quarterback in the matchup. We expect Williams to try to force a few throws knowing the magnitude of the matchup, and for the Panthers to back their way into a cover.
The Ravens went from a down-and-out 0-2 squad to one of the league’s most feared villains after back-to-back wins, including a 25-point blowout against the Bills. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson rank first and ninth in the league in rushing for an offense that is fifth in points per game, while the defense showed substantial improvements in Week 4. Lamar is also 4-1 head-to-head against Joe Burrow in the regular season.
Speaking of Burrow, the former first-overall pick has been great ever since a Week 1 dud. He threw for 271.3 yards per game, seven touchdowns, and one interception in his last three games, only one of which was a win. Cincy’s defense is a horrific 27th in EPA per play and 28th against the run, which is an obvious sign of concern heading into the matchup.
The Bengals don’t appear to be that great of a team. Burrow is playing outstanding football, but the defense has serious issues all over the field, and they are just 21st in rushing yards per game. Still, Cincy’s playoff hopes are on the line with the looming peril of dropping to 1-4, and we’ll toss them a liferaft with the chance to cover at home.
Will the Patriots pull the Drake Maye level? Jacoby Brissett gives them little to no chance to win football games and just went 19/32 for 168 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and a QBR of 26.5 in a 17-point loss to the 49ers. Rhamondre Stevenson is close to the only source of offensive inspiration, and the defense is 31st in third-down conversion percentage allowed (51.85 percent).
Tyler Huntley only managed to go 14/22 for 96 yards and run for 40 yards and a touchdown in his Dolphins’ debut, a 31-12 loss to the Titans. But Miami’s offensive issues extend beyond that as Mike McDaniel’s crew has the worst offensive EPA per play of any team. They also paid a ton of money to improve their defense but are only 26th in points allowed per game—worse than the Commanders and the Raiders.
This is a battle between two bottomfeeders in the league (what a fall from grace for Miami). Huntley wriggled his way into a Pro Bowl earlier in his career but looked far short of a difference maker in his first game with the Fins, and with the Pats having home-field advantage, they just might be the sharp play here.
The Commanders—for the first time in more than 20 years—are a fun team again. Jayden Daniels broke a slew of rookie and NFL records last week and leads the league in completion percentage, is fourth in QBR, and has seven total touchdowns with only one turnover. They run the ball at the highest EPA per play in the league and might have a reasonable chance at winning the NFC East if the defense plays how it did last week, not the first three weeks.
Nick Chubb’s imminent return provides a source of optimism, though it’s unclear when he’ll be back over the next three weeks. Cleveland is 26th in scoring, has more turnovers than passing touchdowns, and is even losing its edge on defense (17th in points allowed per game). They’ll have to hope that Myles Garrett finds a way to break the rhythm of a stoic Daniels to have a chance at a win.
The NFL is all about expecting the unexpected and rejecting becoming a prisoner of the moment… but Daniels looks like an easy top-10 quarterback and is going against potentially the worst starter in the NFL. Washington’s defense stinks at stopping the run and could allow the Browns to hang around, but there’s momentum in the nation’s capital ahead of Washington’s second home game of the season.
Jacksonville was 18 seconds and a C.J. Stroud touchdown away from its first win of the season last week. Unfortunately for them, Trevor Lawrence is now winless in his last nine starts, and Doug Pederson seemed clueless that his job could be in jeopardy during his postgame press conference. They also surrendered the third-most points in the league and are 27th in sack percentage and dead last in turnovers.
Anthony Richardson’s abdominal injury suffered last week doesn’t appear to be serious, and he’s considered day-to-day. The unspoken concern is that Indy might be better off with 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who went 16/26 for 168 yards and two touchdowns after he was inserted into the action last week. Jonathan Taylor averaged 87.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry, while the defense exceeded expectations by being about league average.
The Jags seem to lose in every possible way no matter the context. We’d almost feel more comfortable fading them if Flacco plays, but it’s hard to justify them being road favorites against a team that almost won the division while dealing with quarterback injuries last year.
The tumult of the 2024 NFL season has mostly avoided the Texans, though they haven’t been amazing thus far. They’re 3-1 with wins against the Colts, Bears, and Jaguars, none of which were by more than six points, and a 34-7 loss to the Vikings. C.J. Stroud is moving the ball but isn’t generating a ton of points, and the retooled defense has taken a step back since last year.
Buffalo just suffered its first loss of more than eight points in three years against the Ravens on Sunday night. Josh Allen is second in NFL MVP odds and has yet to throw an interception but is in need of a bounceback after he produced very little impact against Baltimore. Buffalo’s defense was also gashed in the run game but still ranks third in passing yards allowed per attempt.
Both the Texans and Bills are vying for the third spot in the hierarchy of AFC championship contenders. Buffalo has been the better team, but the Texans are mostly held in higher regard because of Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans. Houston’s struggles to run the ball, however, lead us to believe that the Bills’ defense will hold up and they’ll grab an important road win.
Denver had one of the most improbable wins in recent memory as they took down the Jets 10-9 on the road despite Bo Nix failing to complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half and finishing 12/25 for 60 yards and a touchdown. The Denver defense has the highest sack percentage in the league and is third in EPA per play, both of which are massive improvements from 2023, though they gave up 26 points to the competent offenses they played.
Vegas is not going to impress with its personnel or any of its statistics… yet Antonio Pierce consistently finds ways to get the most out of his players and to win games. They took down the Browns last week 20-16 despite overall inefficiency and a lack of standout individual performers. They can’t turn the ball over or fall behind by too much, but they’ll almost always give their best effort.
Maxx Crosby missed the first game of his career last week but expects to be back on Sunday. Denver is in the prime spot for a let-down after it stole a win on the road against a highly-favored Jets team, which makes Vegas an attractive pick. We’d like to see them run the ball and control the clock more, but a full three-point spread feels like too much.
This 49ers team is not the one of years past. Brock Purdy is doing a tremendous job pushing the ball down the field and is emerging as the guy, not someone who depends on his All-Star teammates. Meanwhile, the defense has severely underperformed, and Christian McCaffrey seems as if he might not play a game this year.
Arizona just got thumped by the Commanders and only scored 14 points on their home field. They’ve had serious problems scoring in the second half and once plays aren’t scripted, and they allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the league. Their high-scoring start to the year is almost forgotten now that they averaged 13.5 points over their last two outings.
Division rivalry matchups are normally fairly close, and San Francisco’s injuries are a serious concern for a variety of futures markets. That said, they’re playing much better football and get to host the Cardinals on their home field. The back door cover will be open, but we still like the chalk.
The first year of post-Aaron Donald life is not treating the Rams well. They surrendered at least 24 points in every game, and are 30th in third-down defense and 31st in defensive EPA per play. Matthew Stafford passes the eye test but only has two touchdowns and two interceptions in four games for an offense that is 19th in yards per play and 22nd in scoring. Injuries are to blame here, but that doesn’t mean things will get better soon.
Jordan Love wore Brett Favre’s jersey to his last game and honored him by throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions, true to Favre’s memory. They only ran the ball 19 times for 86 yards despite finding tremendous success in the two games Love sat injured, and they need a better balance to win games. Last week was also their worst defensive showing of the young season.
LA’s defense has been terrible against the run and the pass, but Love is turning the ball over and only completed 55.7 percent of his passes thus far. The Rams will need to hope the Packers’ defensive issues continue into this game, but it’s still a tall ask to cover the spread given their many absentees.
Seattle went on the road without four key defensive starters and gave up a ton of points to the Lions. But while that was expected, what wasn’t was Geno Smith throwing for career-highs across the board with 38 completions (56 attempts), 395 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The Seahawks do a great job limiting explosive plays (when healthy) and are opening up their passing attack by getting Jaxon Smith-Njigba more involved.
The Giants are, well, in the NFL. They covered the closing line in a 20-15 loss to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 and will have the benefit of 10 days of rest, along with the detriment of another week of Daniel Jones under center. Malik Nabers carries the offense, and the defense has been extremely porous in the secondary.
Mike MacDonald doesn’t necessarily want to rely on his offense, but he has an explosive team and a stout defense. The Giants are only prolonging the inevitable, which is likely moving on from both Brian Daboll and Jones in the next year or two. Take the favorites to bounce back at home.
Justin Fields played his best game of the season despite that coming in Pittsburgh’s first loss of the year. That’s still a promising sign, as their defense will keep them in games more times than not. They still need to find more ways to establish the run game and should look for new personnel in the offseason, but they’ll be stout on their home field.
Dallas is caught between a rock and a hard place. They can’t run the ball, they can’t stop the run, and they lost top pass-rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons to injuries last week. Any wins will likely be inspired by dominant performances from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, whose connection looked strong last week but is also at the top of every opposing coordinator’s “stop” list.
A Dallas win would be huge for their season, especially with the Commanders’ unexpected surge, and the Eagles still being the odds-on favorites in the NFC East. They don’t have to worry much about the Steelers exposing their lack of run defense, however, and this could be an opportunity for them to surprise the world as they so often do (before also regularly losing layup games).
How will the Chiefs survive an underperforming offense and a slew of injuries? History says, probably fairly well. They’ll need to get Xavier Worthy more looks, regardless if he’s ready or not, and lean into their defense and clock control out of necessity.
The Saints started the year unbelievably hot but were hit with a hard dose of regression the last two weeks. They now find themselves in a precarious position as they still rank well in a variety of metrics but lost two straight games and are third in the division. We’ve seen the best and worst of this team and still aren’t sure which will win out in the long run.
Kansas City’s mounting injuries are going to make it hard for them to blow teams out. A majority of NFL games already end within one score, and getting this line at six points or higher would make the Saints a must-bet. Even at 5.5, though, we believe they have enough to cover and potentially hand the Chiefs their first loss.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
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