NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: Bills to Beat Ravens in Primetime, Jayden Daniels Will Keep Cruising?

• The Chargers could be missing five crucial players against the Chiefs

• The Commanders’ red-hot offense is looking for an upset in the desert 

• The Vikings and Steelers are undefeated straight up and against the spread

An unforgettable three weeks of NFL action are in the books, and it’s time to turn the page and look ahead at NFL Week 4 odds.

In a world in which Sam Darnold has been the best player in the league, Andy Dalton nearly threw for the most yards in a game in his first appearance in a year, and underdogs of at least 5.5 points are 14-2 against the spread, it’s been tough sledding for public bettors thus far.

That’s why we’re here to break down every matchup and to share our favorite NFL Week 4 odds. So let’s not waste any more time! Here are our best NFL bets against the spread in Week 4.

Picks ATS 2024 NFL Stats

There have been an unprecedented amount of upsets thus far, resulting in one of the weirdest betting starts in recent years. I correctly nailed both Monday Night picks, the Eagles stopping the red-hot Saints and the Panthers’ coming out party with Dalton, but I got burned on the Buccaneers and Chargers, among others.

• My record last week: 8-8 (50 percent)

• 2024 record: 19-27-2 (41.3 percent)

NFL Week 4 Predictions and Odds

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Giants vs. Cowboys - September 26, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (-110), Giants +4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys (-225), Giants (+185)

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

The Giants picked up their first win of the season with a 21-15 result against the Browns last week. A large part of that is down to Deshaun Watson’s historically awful start to the year, though the Giants deserve credit for stifling Cleveland’s running game and shutting out their opponent from 11 seconds into the first quarter until 11:33 remaining in the fourth. Malik Nabers is also already a star and added eight receptions, 78 yards, and two touchdowns to his resume.

According to EPA per run play defended, the Cowboys’ defense is more than three times worse than the team with the second-worst run defense. That’s nothing short of disastrous and will come into play against a Giants team that has a running quarterback and likes to work the underneath game. CeeDee Lamb also isn’t up to speed, and the Dallas offense is in the bottom half in yards per play. 

This is the great matchup that nobody asked for in primetime. Both teams have clear weaknesses and are en route to missing the playoffs if they don’t straighten themselves out. Dallas is still clearly the better team, but New York has a real path to covering if the Cowboys can’t operate or defend the run, and Nabers continues to ball.

Giants vs. Cowboys pick: Giants +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Panthers vs. Bengals - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Bengals -4.5 (-110), Panthers +4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bengals (-225), Panthers (+180)

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The Red Rifle is back and better than ever! Andy Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns in a 36-22 road win against the Raiders as the Panthers snagged their first win of the season and looked like a completely different team. They still don’t rank favorably in most metrics but looked rejuvenated with a different quarterback under center and made plays in all three phases.

The Bengals fell to 0-3 and have now lost as 9.5- and 7.5-point favorites against the Patriots and Commanders. The losses come despite their offense ranking a highly-impressive fourth in EPA per play, though their defense has been disappointing, particularly in the pass-rush. Joe Burrow and company will essentially eliminate themselves if they don’t go on a long winning streak that starts on Sunday.

Don’t look now, but this is prime “Andy Dalton revenge game” territory. The Rifle can still sling the ball and is going against a team that’s been very friendly to opposing defenses. Week 3 was the time for an “over my dead body game” and it didn’t come… that’s why we like the Panthers to find their way to cover the spread. 

Panthers vs. Bengals pick: Panthers +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Jets vs. Broncos - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Broncos +7 (-110), Jets -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos (+260), Jets (-350)

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

If this is the Aaron Rodgers that the Jets are going to get, then the Jets might be in business. The future HOFer went 27/35 for 281 yards and two touchdowns on Thursday Night Football last week and will get extra time off to fully prepare which, at the ripe age of 40, will make a real difference. The Jets’ defense is banged up and hasn’t made a substantial impact just yet, though the talent is in place to do just that.

Bo Nix had without question the best game of his pro career against the Buccaneers last week, going 25-36 for 216 yards and running nine times for 47 yards and a touchdown. He did not seem overwhelmed in the pocket like he had during the first two weeks and completed a few nice intermediate/long passes in the first quarter as Denver’s quietly impressive defense continued its strong start. The concern here is this is the perfect let-down spot for offense and defense.

The Jets shouldn’t have to get up for this game to win, but they are going to be in the driver’s seat because of the extra time off they enjoyed. Nix also, despite looking better, has not thrown a touchdown and has four interceptions in three games, which puts him well behind Rodgers in the quarterback battle. We like the Jets to buck the trend and win and cover as a large favorite. 

Jets vs. Broncos pick: Jets -7 (-110) at BetMGM

Texans vs. Jaguars - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Jaguars +6 (-110), Texans -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jaguars (+220), Texans (-275)

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

We’re willing to give Brian Flores the title of “panic-inducer” and judge the Texans by what they put on film in Weeks 1 and 2 rather than during their 34-7 loss to the Vikings. C.J. Stroud is proving that he’s comfortably one of the five best QBs in the NFL, and the defense looks better than last year’s. They also beat Jacksonville 37-17 in Week 3 last year and get a chance to rebound from a loss at home.

Jacksonville is one of three winless teams in the NFL. They rank 25th in offensive and 29th in defensive efficiency and can’t rely on their $275 million quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, to save them. This team has holes all over the roster and no clear style of play, which makes their future prospects bleak at best.

The Texans are much better than the Jags, and they get to play at home after an embarrassing loss to the Vikings. Jacksonville doesn’t look like the worst team in the league on paper, but its performances suggest it just might be. Even still, underdogs have been profitable, and the Jags covered this line in two of their three losses.

Texans vs. Jaguars pick: Jaguars +6 (-110) at BetMGM

Bears vs. Rams - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Rams +2.5 (-110), Bears -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams (+115), Bears (-135)

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

The Bears’ coaching staff seems totally unaware of how to put Caleb Williams in positions to succeed. He threw the ball 52 times for 363 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in Chicago’s loss to the Colts last week despite another solid outing from the defense. The offensive line is going to seriously inhibit Chicago’s progress if it is going to continue looking like one of the worst units in the league. 

Who knows how the Rams managed to come back from down 10 points in the fourth quarter against the 49ers without many of their starters? All that matters is that it happened, and there is suddenly some semblance of optimism if they can get back to .500 knowing their absentees will return eventually. The first order of business is cleaning up their run defense, which ranks second-to-last in EPA per play defended.

The Rams are only 28th in sack percentage and 29th in opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage. That combined with their inability to stop the run is a golden ticket for the Bears, who have seen improvement from Williams but still need to help him settle. We have respect for Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, but this is still the same team that lost 41-10 to the Cardinals in Week 2. 

Bears vs. Rams pick: Bears -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Packers vs. Vikings - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Vikings +2.5 (-105), Packers -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Vikings (+110), Packers (-135)

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Packers are hoping that Jordan Love will be ready to return by kick-off but have comfort knowing that they’re 2-0 with Malik Willis under center. Green Bay is first in rushing yards per game and second in rushing yards per play and will have that as a backbone whether Love plays or not. They’re also ninth in defensive EPA per play and sixth in defensive third-down conversion rate, both of which are impressive. 

The 3-0 Vikings are the talk of the town, whether it be Sam Darnold’s unbelievable resurgence or Brian Flores’ air-tight defense. Darnold is fifth in QBR and has eight touchdowns to just two interceptions, while the Minnesota defense allowed the second-fewest points per game (10). They also won their only road game, a Week 1 matchup with the Giants, 28-6.

While Love is a better player than Willis, it could be a disservice to bring him back against this defense if he is not fully ready. At the same time, there’s an unstoppable object meets immovable force contrast with Green Bay’s ground game and the Vikings’ front line. There’s more continuity with the Vikings, so we’ll look to them to continue their electric start to the season.

Packers vs. Vikings pick: Vikings +2.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Falcons vs. Saints - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Saints +1.5 (-110), Falcons -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints (+100), Falcons (-120)

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Saints bulls were a little over their skis with their reactions to the first two weeks of football. New Orleans came crashing back to earth in a 15-12 loss to the Eagles during which they lost the battle of the point of attack, were held under 90 yards rushing, and saw Derek Carr go 14/25 for 142 yards, a pick, and an interception. Carr regularly goes through hot and cold streaks and will need more consistency from the defense, which just allowed 460 yards of total offense, to keep them hanging in playoff contention.

The Falcons played two close games against the Steelers and Chiefs and were a failed last-two-minute comeback away from being winless. They rank 21st and 22nd in offensive and defensive EPA per play and simply lack the consistency they need to have to fulfill preseason expectations. Many of their defensive players, namely the safeties, played well against the Chiefs, and they need a home win against their division rivals to avoid falling well behind in the division title race. 

There’s no question that the Saints have been the better team up to this point, but Week 3 showed what a dose of regression to the mean can do to a team. Kirk Cousins, despite failing to light the world up, is getting healthier, and the Falcons can run the ball effectively. This should be another defensive struggle, and we like the Falcons’ chances on their home field.

Falcons vs. Saints pick: Falcons -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Eagles - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-110), Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles (-145), Buccaneers (+120)

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

There might not be a fanbase that induces more anxiety in its fans than the Eagles. Jalen Hurts leads the league in turnovers since the start of last year, and they showed major holes at all levels of their defense during the first two weeks of the season. On the bright side, Saquon Barkley is arguably the NFL's MVP thus far, and Jalen Carter just had an Aaron Donald-level performance at defensive tackle as they held the Saints to 12 points and 219 total yards of offense.

Public bettors were left astonished as the upstart Buccaneers were dominated by what appeared to be a terrible Broncos team and rookie QB Bo Nix. Baker Mayfield was held under 200 yards and threw an interception for the second straight week, while Rachaad White appeared to play himself out of the starting job behind rookie Bucky Irving. The Bucs are quite worryingly 27th in yards allowed per rush and need to straighten up as soon as possible.

The Bucs eliminated the Eagles in the Wild Card last year and will feel confident hosting them on their home field. Both teams are flawed, and both quarterbacks are in a bad rut of turnovers (Hurts more so than Mayfield). Saquon’s electric start combined with Tampa’s struggles stopping the run are reasons to be cautious, but we need to see a clean game from Hurts and fewer defensive miscues from Philly to back them, especially with all of the injuries they have.

Buccaneers vs. Eagles pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Colts vs. Steelers - September 29, 1:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Steelers -2 (-110), Colts +2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Steelers (-135), Colts (+110)

• Total: Over/under 40 (-110/-110)

Anthony Richardson is one of the most confusing players in the NFL. He makes throws that the vast majority of QBs can’t make, yet he can’t make the football equivalent of a layup to save his life. The second-year pro has three touchdowns and six interceptions, and his defense is average at best in nearly every area.

The Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin magic has taken hold of Justin Fields, who is running the offense well and playing a clean game despite him failing to impress in most standard metrics. The Steelers’ defense is first in defensive EPA per play, first in points allowed per game, third in yards per play allowed, and seventh in sack percentage. They have another Super Bowl defense and just need to not turn the ball over to win games.

Shane Steichen is one of the best coaches to pair with a young, talented quarterback who has lots of potential but needs someone to bring the best out of him. Unfortunately, “the best” the NFL world has seen from Richardson will not be enough for this opportunistic defense that snagged four picks in three games. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the visitors thanks to the strength of T.J. Watt and company.  

Colts vs. Steelers pick: Steelers -2 (-110) at BetMGM

Cardinals vs. Commanders - September 29, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3.5 (-110), Cardinals -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders (+155), Cardinals (-190)

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

Kyler Murray played his first bad game of the year as the Cardinals were held to 13 points in a seven-point loss against the Lions. They had no answers for Detroit’s running game and didn’t present much resistance to Jared Goff, though they picked off one of his five incompletions. This will be their third straight home game before they head out for three road games in their next four outings.

Hello, Jayden Daniels! The league’s leader in completion percentage broke a slew of records in a dazzling Monday Night Football performance against the Bengals as the Commanders have now gone more than two straight games without punting or turning the ball over. They’re second only to Buffalo in offensive efficiency but also have what is clearly the worst defense in the league.

This is a real strength-on-weakness matchup as both teams have shown explosiveness and get to go against porous defenses. Daniels’ last showing was the best quarterback performance of the year, per Pro Football Focus, and his offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, is only a few years removed from coaching the Cardinals. We like the Commanders to continue their impressive start with an outright win in the desert.

Cardinals vs. Commanders pick: Commanders +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

49ers vs. Patriots - September 29, 4:05 PM ET 

• Spread: Patriots +10 (-105), 49ers -10 (-115)

• Moneyline: Patriots (+400), 49ers (-550)

• Total: Over/under 39.5 (-110/-110)

It’s early, and the Niners are only 1-2, but Brock Purdy is doing his part to prove that he isn’t reliant upon Christian McCaffrey and all-star wide receivers to carry him to glory. San Fran had no business blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Rams last week and are dealing with numerous injuries, but they’re still a dangerous team in every phase.

Any good faith the Patriots built during the first two weeks disappeared in their 24-3 loss against the Jets. Jacoby Brissett averaged 122.7 passing yards per game, and the offense is simply incapable of doing anything if Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t breaking loose. The defense is also starting to slip toward mediocrity the more pressure it's put under by the offense.

It’s strange to say an injured 1-2 Niners team without McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, and others is a strong pick, but that’s what we’ve settled on. The Patriots seem to be on the verge of making the switch to Drake Maye and don’t have enough horses on defense to slow down the best offenses in the league, especially one as consistent as the Niners’.

49ers vs. Patriots pick: 49ers -10 (-105) at BetMGM

Raiders vs. Browns - September 29, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Browns +1 (-110), Raiders -1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns (-105), Raiders (-115)

• Total: Over/under 37.5 (-110/-110)

Antonio Pierce is in contention for the coach most capable of getting the best out of a lackluster roster… but that doesn’t mean that his team isn’t prone to disappointment, as was proven in a 36-22 loss to the Panthers last week. Maxx Crosby is a game-wrecker, but it’s hard to point to any standout areas or players short of moments from Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.

Deshaun Watson has the worst EPA per dropback of any Cleveland quarterback since at least 2000, a nearly unbelievable record given the horrific quarterback play that has graced that city. As is always the case, the Browns’ defense is doing its best to overcome their offensive deficiencies, but mostly to no avail. The simple solution is to run the ball more and stop asking Watson to throw as much as he has.

Pierce has earned respect in the league because of his ability to get the best out of inferior rosters. The Browns would be a completely different team without Watson, but unfortunately, he’s there, and he isn’t going anywhere. Take the Raiders to come out with a fire under their butts and to win this AFC battle.

Raiders vs. Browns pick: Raiders -1 (-110) at BetMGM

Chargers vs. Chiefs - September 29, 4:25 PM ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -8 (-110), Chargers +8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chiefs (-400), Chargers (+325)

• Total: Over/under 39 (-110/-110)

The Chargers could be down Justin Herbert, Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James Jr. when Sunday’s game kicks off. LA has mostly played great defense thus far 

but struggled to find answers for the Steelers, who don’t exactly have the level of talent the Chiefs do. Taylor Heinicke went 2/2 for 24 yards after he subbed in for an injured Herbert and will get the start if the latter can’t go.

There are many reasons for Chiefs fans to be concerned. Patrick Mahomes is missing throws and turning the ball over, Travis Kelce seems to have pushed off retirement one year too far, Hollywood Brown and Isaiah Pacheco are injured, and the offense seems to revolve entirely around Rashee Rice. Despite that, KC is 3-0 and has a cushion over its divisional opponents.

This line requires bettors to answer the question “Are the Chargers only one score worse than the Chiefs at the present moment?” We’d likely say yes without the slew of injuries, but with all of those players in jeopardy of missing the game, we’ll give the nod to the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. 

Chargers vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs -8 (-110) at BetMGM

Ravens vs. Bills - September 29, 8:20 PM ET 

• Spread: Bills +2 (-110), Ravens -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bills (+110), Ravens (-135)

• Total: Over/under 46 (-110/-110)

The demise of the Ravens’ defense is both under and overexaggerated. They allowed the fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.8) and the fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.5). Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearhead a thunder-and-lightning running combo, while Lamar also threw for more than 233 yards per game thus far.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills lead the league in nearly every measure of offensive efficiency and just bludgeoned the Jaguars 47-10 on Monday Night Football. They also overcame injuries and roster turnover to roll out yet another top-10 defense, ranking seventh in points and eighth in yards allowed. Allen is the odds-on MVP favorite and has 719 total yards and nine total touchdowns with no turnovers.

The AFC is all about figuring out which team will be the Chiefs’ main postseason challenger. The Bills and Ravens have both been on the cusp in recent years, and this is a great opportunity to see how they stack up with one another. This could come down to which team has the ball last, but with Justin Tucker’s recent struggles and Allen’s care for the ball, the Bills are a strong play. 

Ravens vs. Bills pick: Bills +2 (-110) at BetMGM

Dolphins vs. Titans - September 30, 7:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Titans -1.5 (+100), Dolphins +1.5 (-120)

• Moneyline: Titans (-110), Dolphins (-110)

• Total: Over/under 37 (-110/-110)

What’s in store for the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins (assuming Tyler Huntley doesn’t take over)? The third-year pro went 13/19 for 107 yards last week for a QBR of, you guessed it, 8.1. Only top-two defenses can survive that drought in offensive production, and that is not what the Dolphins have. 

The Titans’ offseason decisions to spend to bring in veterans such as Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, and L’Jarius Sneed look even more confusing now that Will Levis is proving that he isn’t the quarterback of the future. Tennessee has a glaring issue at right tackle, committed more turnovers than any team, and scored the fifth-fewest points of any team.

It’s about time the Titans got their first win of the season. It’s no secret that the Dolphins have immense talent on offense, but without a distributor at quarterback, that is all going to waste. Tennessee, to its credit, also ranks seventh in yards per play allowed and can use its defense to snag a victory here.

Dolphins vs. Titans pick: Titans -1.5 (+100) at BetMGM

Lions vs. Seahawks - September 30, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +4 (-110), Lions -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks (+170), Lions (-210)

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

It’s unlikely the Lions thought they’d be looking up at the Vikings three weeks into the season or that they’d be tied with a Packers team that started Malik Willis the last two weeks. Detroit’s moved the ball as well as ever but may stumble a bit due to starting center Frank Ragnow partially tearing his pectoral. Defensively, they get after the quarterback and can stop the run but still aren’t amazing on the back end.

Mike MacDonald completely transformed the Seattle defense and got them to allow the fewest yards per play and fourth-fewest points per game. Geno Smith also started the season well before a down week in Week 3 but will look a lot better if the OC Ryan Grubb can figure out the running game. Seattle, for what it’s worth, won in overtime at Detroit in Week 2 last year, 37-31.

Jared Goff has three touchdowns and four interceptions and turned the ball over at least once in every game. While Smith can also be reckless at times, Seattle’s impressive defense should make good on any extra opportunities, especially if Detroit is down their starting center. Watch for the visitors to cover here.

Lions vs. Seahawks pick: Seahawks +4 (-110) at BetMGM

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